Thread: After the Euro crash and some News

See,Dok,we don't have a democratic culture .You need to vote,pal.No more unanimity .My master plan for the future family is to indoctrinate the kids before she does,so that's I'll win every debate.

Originally Posted by Mihais

See,Dok,we don't have a democratic culture .You need to vote,pal.No more unanimity .My master plan for the future family is to indoctrinate the kids before she does,so that's I'll win every debate.

The kid is minor, therefor no right to vote, tho he sides with me (done that part good so far), meaning we (me and mewife) vote 1:1 when we have to vote 2:0.

Edit: I am not sure you are authorized to use the shaking-head bird without prior authorization of a certain God, pardon mod.

Originally Posted by Mihais

You can't have a currency without political unity

Why ? Where is it written that this must necessarily be the case ?

Currency is just a means of exchange, it has value only if ppl attribute value to it. Just like gold. Gold only has value if ppl attribute value to it. Gold along with silver was the currency used all over the world. That is to say their paper currency was backed by it until 1931 when the Brits were the first to introduce a fiat model.

Your country certainly accepts euros even though they are not part of the euro. You would also accept $ like anywhere else.

not sure the former empire is relevant we are all part of it somehow to a degree, French, German, American empires did exist as well as Spanish most failed and revived more or less in a different form.

The Euro already failed once under the EMU mechanism or was it the ERM whichever so failing again should not be a big deal. The reality is contrasting interests, economies, fiscal needs and developments do create a necessary distortion for varying degrees of currency growth or decline instead of uniform one.

If the Northern countries leave the Euro and form a different currency to let the other nations devalue in order to stay solvent in their ability to pay debt my guess it will not solve the debt problem. Default through devaluation is only partial they need a full blown write off to reset their economies.

Originally Posted by cyppok

The Euro already failed once under the EMU mechanism or was it the ERM whichever so failing again should not be a big deal.

Eh ?

European Exchange Rate Mechanism - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

current system is ERM 2...

Ummm, that wasn't a "fail", that was just reorganizing the conditions. ERM 1 was simply too lax. The Ecu's non-fixed exchange rates against the member state currencies were frozen on Dec 31st '98 and the currency renamed Euro.

The one crash it had in '92 (didn't kill it either) had a single reason, and that's the UK becoming the target of currency speculation two years after it joined ERM. That destabilized the whole system for a bit until we kicked the UK out of ERM again. Should never have let them in.

Perhpas it is because those who have seen their Empires fall apart that they see more clearly the sign of a fall.

I see that the lastest meeting has come up with a “six-pack” of tougher budget rules. Everyone was also told to 'shut-up', "verbal discipline" according to Luxembourg prime minister Jean-Claude Juncker. What a joke.

The budget rules will have to be kept by exactly the same people that the Germans allege have not been keeping their previous budget rules. If indeed they were not keeping the previous rules these new 'rules' are not worth the paper they are written on. Trouble is that Italy, for example, WAS pretty much keeping the rules so the problem is actualy more systemic than simply breaching the rules and no attempt was made enlarge the European Financial Stability Facility - which probably needs another 2 trillion Euros short term. Eurobonds are ruled out and a decision on Greece postponed (meaning that Greece will need more money IF bailed out as their interest rates will continue to rise).

I like Wroclaw (Breslau in German) but if they want to visit Poland again I recommend Krakow. Is far better for tourism and I can think of no other reason why they had to meet so urgently.

PS. My Sister is benefiting just fine from all this: She works in Swirzerland and earns in Swiss Francs but lives in France and spends in Euros, 20% pay increase due to currency fluctuation.

The German parliament will be voting on ESFS in 30 minutes.

Speeches so far concentrated on other topics really, with the opposition ridiculing the government coalition, the CDU and the Left arguing about which ways of German state intervention in Europe-wide currency politics are the best, the FDP clamoring for the free market (and getting laughed at for both that and for its recent election results), the CSU being painted as (quote) "the Bavarian enemies of Europe".

There'll still be two representatives speaking for the - non-party - groups opposing ESFS.

Originally Posted by kato

ESFS will get a huge majority in the Bundestag - it's very widely supported. I'd expect minimum 500 out of 620 in favour.

And as predicted, the result: 523 in favour, 85 against, 12 abstentions

Of the abstentions 3 were active (voted), 9 passive (didn't vote or not present).

They're still counting who exactly voted for what. That's the actually interesting part - the four parties nominally in favour have 544 seats, meaning up to 21 voted against or abstained. If those 21 are all in CDU, CSU and FDP (i.e. SPD and Greens voted en-bloc in favour) then Merkel only got 309 seats votes in support from her government coalition - two less than the absolute majority in parliament, the exact result the opposition was trying for.

Edit: Government coalition claims they got 315 votes among themselves.

The Left is using the opportunity to have about one third of their representatives give "personal comments" in the plenum, i.e. hold speeches. Anything to get air time, so to say.

The constitutional court weighed in and said its a no go without a referendum, which is the proper thing to do if your going to indebt someone(citizenry) to payoff someone(bankers).

German turmoil over EU bail-outs as top judge calls for referendum - Telegraph

Right now I am wondering whom leaves the Euro first actually. I think its going to be someone unexpected that can manage the seperation with the least amount of damage. Finland comes to mind actually.
Break the euro to save Europe | Hans-Olaf Henkel, Financial Times | Commentary | Business Spectator

That is why we need a plan C: for Austria, Finland, Germany and the Netherlands to leave the eurozone and create a new currency leaving the euro where it is. If planned and executed carefully it could do the trick: a lower valued euro would improve the competitiveness of the remaining countries and stimulate their growth.

This sounds interesting kinda.

(my opinion on the ESFS increase)
The increase in ESFS to 400 bill and German share to 211 billion does not cut it to be honest. It only saves the losses(banks suffer) on Greek bonds but does not help afterwrds when other countries need "liquidity" rollover their maturities. Recently Italy had troubling "rolling" stuff over so if more and more debt needs to be rolled by more and more countries sooner or later one of those "sums" does not pass mustard and you get clearance stopage, ergo the 2nd or 3rd failiure. At that point the currency does not serve its' function ergo a failure. Failing for a second or for a year is irrelevant when commerce clearance stops.

Originally Posted by cyppok

The constitutional court weighed in and said its a no go without a referendum, which is the proper thing to do if your going to indebt someone(citizenry) to payoff someone(bankers).

Background:

• Vosskuhle can say a lot, without anyone actually appealing to the court it has zero repercussions on actual politics
• The constitutional court recently (three weeks ago) ruled in favour of the laws regarding financial assistance for Greece and ESFS, ruling them constitutional. Vosskuhle was the one who had to announce that ruling in fact.
• The judicial majority on those rulings was rather large: 7 to 1. It's not publicly known who the one voting against was, but considering interviews with Vosskuhle since then it's not unlikely it was him.
• As for Vosskuhle's person: He is from Baden-Württemberg, a state currently governed by direct-democracy-conscious Green NIMBYs (he used to be the president of the university of Freiburg, a Green-dominated university). He is generally regarded as (too) young and inexperienced for his office, and basically often "needs" the "helpful guidance" of other judges.

Summary: No referendum. And it's not "the constitutional court" who said it.

As for Hans-Olaf Henkel, he's a neoliberal capitalist who has publicly supported Thilo Sarrazin's racist ideologies and who has for the past year or so been rallying in favour of splitting the Eurozone into a (German-dominated) North and a (French-Dominated) South. The linked commentary is just a... less ideological variant of that scheme he's been pushing.

Originally Posted by snapper

Lets make this crystal clear: IF Germany and/or others refuse to the second part of the Greek bail out Greece will leave the Euro within 17-19 days.

We're past your deadline, Greece is still in the EU.

When's this second bailout going to happen ?

Originally Posted by Double Edge

We're past your deadline, Greece is still in the EU.

When's this second bailout going to happen ?

The Doomsday Duo (cyppok & snapper) prophesies have not been fulfilled....again