Thread: Merkel suffers historic defeat in German state elections

Seat distribution in the Bundesrat (Senate) remains stuck following the Saarland election next sunday - doesn't really matter which coalition wins, either way the fed gov is losing another 3 votes:

Black-Yellow (federal government): 25 votes
(Bavaria, Hesse, Lower Saxony, Saxony, Schleswig-Holstein)

Red-Green (primary opposition coalition): 22 votes
(Baden-Württemberg, Bremen, Hamburg, NRW, RLP)

Neutral (other coalitions): 23 votes
Grand Coalition (15 votes): Berlin, MVP, Saxony-Anhalt, Thuringia
Red-Red (4 votes): Brandenburg
Undecided (3 votes): Saarland

Black-Red (federal government): 25 votes
(Bavaria, Hesse, Lower Saxony, Saxony, Schleswig-Holstein)

You mean Black-Yellow (Union & FDP), right?

Yeah.

Though the next one will probably be black-red again, the way this seems to be going...

The numbers look like that, but I just have problems see the SPD going for it, the way the last one turned out. But what would be the alternative...Red-Green, tolerated by the Pirates? *g*

Preliminary result forecast, Saarland:

ARD / ZDF

CDU - 35.1 / 34.8
SPD - 30.5 / 30.7
Left - 16.4 / 16.2
Pirates - 7.3 / 7.7
Green - 5.0 / 5.0
FDP - 1.4 / 1.3
Other - 4.3 / 4.3

Final results:

in parliament - 94.382% of ballot
CDU - 35.2403% - 19 seats (+0.7%)
SPD - 30.5787% - 17 seats (+6.0%)
Left - 16.1271% - 9 seats (-5.1%)
Pirates - 7.4068% - 4 seats (new)
Greens - 5.0381% - 2 seats (-0.9%)

not in parliament - 5.6090% of ballot
Family Party - 1.7440% (-0.3%)
FDP - 1.2199% (-8.0%)
NPD - 1.1646% (-0.3%)
Free Voter Union - 0.8668% (new)
Die Partei - 0.4631% (new)
Direct Democracy - 0.1496% (new)
others - 0.0% (-1.1%)

Majority in parliament is 26 out of 51 seats - with the above final results that means possible coalitions are either Grand (36 seats) or Red-Red (26 seats).

Survey update for early April, federal level; comparison to February in parentheses. Pirates continue rising:

CDU - 35.67% (-1.2%)
SPD - 27.00% (-0.2%)
Greens - 13.33% (-1.5%)
Pirates - 9.66% (+2.5%)
Left - 7.66% (+0.5%)
FDP - 3.33% (+0.5%)
Others - 3.33% (-0.6%)

(Amalgated from: Forsa 04/03, FGW 03/30, Emnid 04/01)

Amalgated surveys for the NRW state election next month:

In Parliament:
SPD - 39.66%
CDU - 31.33%
Greens - 11.00%
Pirates - 7.33%

Out of Parliament:
FDP - 3.66%
Left - 3.33%
Others - 3.66%

(Info GmbH 04/14, Infratest 03/25, Forsa 03/21)

Note people rallying from the conservative parties (CDU and Greens) to the liberal ones (SPD and Pirates). Pirates continue rising at mostly CDU expense, interestingly.

Schleswig-Holstein state votes today.

Last amalgated surveys before the election (compared to last election):
SPD - 32.0% (+6.6%)
CDU - 31.0% (-0.5%)
Greens - 12.5% (+0.1%)
Pirates - 8.7% (+6.9%)
FDP - 6.3% (-8.6%)
SSW - 4.2% (-0.1%)
Left - 2.3% (-3.7%)
others - 3.0% (-0.7%)
(amalgated from Infratest 04/27, FGW 04/27, GMS 05/02)

So, essentially Merkel's federal coalition losing 9.1% and a majority for Red-Green-SSW at 48.7:46.0 (or a slim 35:34 seat majority). The SSW is the Danish ethnic minority party, and excempt from the 5% hurdle to get into parliament. They're traditionally aligned with the SPD. The SSW also traditionally tolerates SPD or SPD-Green governments - this year they're aiming for coalition instead, i.e. getting into government themselves.

The CDU campaign this year in SH - last time too btw - is a pretty dirty one primarily aimed at defamation of the SSW. Ethnic slurs and all that; last time it was worse though, as back then the SSW candidates even got death threats in the mail.

The last time "other parties" consisted of the Free Voters (1.0%), NPD (Neonazis) (0.9%), Family Party (0.8%), German Senior Citizen Party (0.6%), Senior Citizen Party (0.2%), Interim German Party (Nazis) (0.1%). The two senior citizen parties and the nazis don't field candidates this time, some fringe party called Maritime Union is in the field instead. The parody party PARTEI is fielding candidates in two districts, but was denied running for parliament with a party list.

Let's see if those numbers still gonna hold true in about 5.5 hours when the actual final results get published. Before the last election surveys overestimated the FDP and CDU (as usual) and underestimated the SPD (also as usual).

NRW state update, election is in one week:

SPD - 37.5% (+3.0%)
CDU - 30.7% (-3.9%)
Greens - 11.0% (-1.1%)
Pirates - 8.5% (+6.9%)
FDP - 5.7% (-1.0%) (regaining position)
Left - 3.3% (-2.3%) (losing majorly to pirates)
others - 3.3% (-1.6%) (good riddance to the nazis in there)

(amalgated from yougov 05/03, infratest 05/04, FGW 05/04)

The above Schleswig-Holstein election is seen as crucial by Merkel. Losing it means she definitely loses NRW, Germany's most populous state.

In NRW one of the public focal points is what the small neonazi party "Pro NRW" is doing. They got 1.4% in the last election. During the last week they've been having three-way street battles with salafists and police involved, with up to 50 officers injured, up to 200 people arrested and so on during the last week. Pro NRW always acts as the inciter in these, and does stuff like holding political rallies in front of mosques and crap like that. The state interior minister of NRW considers Pro NRW a menace to democracy, the state chief of the police union is calling for them to be outlawed.

Events like this tend to rally people in Germany towards mainstream parties, hence both why we've got relatively minor changes of percentages in NRW other than the Pirate boom and why we've got a SPD that close to 40% in NRW.

I guess one could add the French election to the list of Merkel's (likely) defeats.

And Greece today?

Results in SH pretty much as expected, 35:34 seats for Red-Green-SSW.

FDP and Greens both performed slightly better than expected, at minimal expense to SPD and CDU.

NRW votes today.

Last amalgated surveys predict:
SPD - 37.3%
CDU - 31.3%
Greens - 11.3%
Pirates - 8.5%
FDP - 5.3%
Left - 3.8%

Will be interesting whether the FDP makes it into parliament. Looks like majority for Red-Green anyway.