Merkel suffers historic defeat in German state elections

**kato** · 22 May 11,, 12:53

Next state today, Bremen. They're allowing 16-year-olds to vote.

Last surveys showed Red/Green at a 61:25 (FGW) or 60:27 (Infratest) majority. The SPD is expected to keep level with its 2007 36.7% result in the state, Greens are estimated to jump from 16.5% to about 24%. The CDU is expected to drop from its 25.7% in 2007 to about 19-20%, becoming only the third-largest party in parliament. All survey institutes project that the FDP will drop out of parliament; the Left, generally showing their 2nd-strongest results in West Germany in Bremen are expected to lose slightly from 8.4% to 6-7%.

As such, it's pretty clear that the government in Bremen will remain Red/Green, albeit with an even greater majority than before. Merkels Black/Yellow coalition stands to lose a significant number of seats and become increasingly irrelevant in the state.

One major affair in the last few days was a raid on Pirate Party servers in Offenbach on friday. This raid by the Federal Criminal Police BKA, instigated by the French Government by claiming an application on these servers was used to plan cyberattacks on the French governmental nuclear power company EDF by Anonymous, effectively froze a whole lot of means of communications for the Pirate Party. The whole affair has been nicknamed "Servergate". In response to "Servergate", Anonymous attacked the servers of the BKA and the general German police internet portal on Friday, DDOSing both into oblivion. While it's unlikely that the Pirate Party will breach the 5-Percent-Hurdle today and make it into parliament, the unknown voting pattern especially of the 16-/17-year-olds gave them at least some chance at it.

Especially since the 5-Percent-Hurdle is separately applied in the two parts of the Two-City-State there are some uncertainties; there are four minor parties that have remote chances at getting into parliament through this special rule, among them the FDP, the Pirate Party, the neonazi NPD and the rightwing-populist party BIW (which currently holds a seat in parliament due to this rule by getting 5.29% in Bremerhaven).

**kato** · 22 May 11,, 17:14

First prognoses / exit polls out for Bremen. As expected.

ARD / Infratest:

Parliament, government (60.5% / 57 seats = +9):
SPD - 38.0% / +1.3% (35 seats = +-0)
Greens - 22.5% / +6.0% (22 seats = +9)

Parliament, opposition (30.0% / 26 seats = -3):
CDU - 20.0% / -5.6% (19 seats = -3)
Left - 6.0% / -2.4% (6 seats = +-0)
BIW - 4.0% / +3.2% (1 seat = +-0)

Not in parliament (9.5% / 0 seats = -6):
FDP - 3.0% / -3.0%
Others - 6.5%

ZDF / FGW:

Parliament, government (61.0% / 57 seats = +9):
SPD - 38.0% / +1.3% (35 seats = +-0)
Greens - 23.0% / +6.5% (22 seats = +9)

Parliament, opposition (30.5% / 26 seats = -3):
CDU - 21.5% / -4.1% (20 seats = -2)
Left - 5.5% / -2.9% (5 seats = -1)
BIW - 3.5% / +2.7% (1 seat = +-0)

Not in parliament (8.5% / 0 seats = +6):
FDP - 3.0% / -3.0%
Others - 5.5%

**Tarek Morgen** · 22 May 11,, 20:27

While ending up behind the Greens is embarrassing for the Union (and not even to speak of the FDP) the results won't have a similar aftermath like the last two state elections.

**kato** · 22 May 11,, 22:57

Depends. Next elections are Berlin, where current prognosis shows a 59% majority for Green/Red with the FDP out of parliament too, and MVP, where Red/Green is trailing CDU and Left combined by only 3% and the FDP would be out of parliament too.

What i find interesting btw is that the CDU was setting up a woman in the leadership role for a guaranteed loss again (was already the case in RLP). Of course just like that woman in RLP the one in Bremen doesn't really have anything substantial to say, and campaigns on the sole basis of attacking the other side without offering own concepts (just watched an interview with her on Phoenix).

**Tarek Morgen** · 22 May 11,, 23:40

Well the campaign in Bremen of the CDU was a disaster. It wasn't like the state government had a very good track record, but the opposition did not even try to make the economy a subject in the election. With this kind of non-effort they simply deserved to lose.

But even if the next elections continue to weaken Merkel..there is no one left to challenge her within the party...at least I can't see anyone...and I wonder how long the Greens can continue their current high. The Nuclear-Power debate will keep them there for a while...but it is a bit early to ask Fischer if he would like to become Chancellor *g*

**kato** · 04 Sep 11,, 19:58

Pitching this in here...

State Election in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (MV) today. Merkel and her liberal patsies lose yet another state.

Results:
SPD 36.1% / 28 seats (gain 5 seats)
CDU 23.3% / 18 seats (lose 4 seats)
Left 18.3% / 14 seats (gain 1 seat)
Greens 8.2% / 6 seats (gain 6 seats)
NPD 5.8% / 5 seats (lose 1 seat)
FDP 2.8% / 0 seats (lose 7 seats)
Pirates 2.0% / 0 seats
Family Party 2.0% / 0 seats
Free Voters 1.0% / 0 seats
Others 0.5% / 0 seats

Minor changes possible (though nothing of relevancy) as one district will only be voting in two weeks due to the death of the 70-yo CDU candidate there.

Currently a SPD/CDU grand coalition governs MV, although the state has had Red/Red coalitions before. Both SPD/CDU and SPD/Left therefore are an option for the state, the state SPD leadership hasn't announced any favoured coalition partner. SPD/Greens doesn't have the necessary majority (they have 34, for 36 needed).

**Doktor** · 04 Sep 11,, 21:01

Kato,

What were the last elections results in MV? I remember SPD around 36% and CDU around 26. I might be wrong.

Party of the Pirates?

**kato** · 04 Sep 11,, 22:09

Originally Posted by Doktor

What were the last elections results in MV? I remember SPD around 36% and CDU around 26. I might be wrong.

Yeah, you're wrong

2006 results:
(in parliament)
SPD 30.2%
CDU 28.8%
Left 16.8%
FDP 9.6%
NPD 7.3%

(not in parliament)
Greens 3.4%
Family Party 1.2%
Greys 0.7%
WASG 0.5%
Minor parties (under 0.5%): 1.5%

The federal coalition therefore went down from 38.4% in the last election to 26.1% in this one, losing almost one third of their voter base in MV.

The Pirate Party is the German branch of the Swedish [Piratpartiet]. They usually poll around 2% in the last couple elections (pretty evenly, no matter the state), but might be able to enter the Berlin state parliament in two weeks (surveys project up to 5% there).

**kato** · 05 Sep 11,, 14:45

Semi-finalized results for 2011, sans Rügen I voting district:

SPD - 35.7%
CDU - 23.1%
Left - 18.4%
Greens - 8.4%
NPD - 6.0%
FDP - 2.7%
Pirates - 1.9%
Family - 1.6%
Others - 2.2%

Seat distribution remains as in post above.

**crooks** · 06 Sep 11,, 21:15

What I love about German elections is the 5% threshold thing - it must be so satisfying to see the FDP not just lose seats but get kicked out of the various parliaments like a bowling strike, as Cillit would say bang and the dirt is gone

.

Great result for SPD and important milestone for the Greens iirc (now have members in all regional parliaments)? Naturally it'd be nice to see a left-wing coalition (SPD-GRN with DL support or SPD-DL) but I suppose they'll probably do another grand coalition for stability?

**kato** · 06 Sep 11,, 23:22

Originally Posted by crooks

Great result for SPD and important milestone for the Greens iirc (now have members in all regional parliaments)? Naturally it'd be nice to see a left-wing coalition (SPD-GRN with DL support or SPD-DL) but I suppose they'll probably do another grand coalition for stability?

Yeah, the Greens are in all parliaments now. FDP is down to 12 out of 16 at state level, and remains a government minor partner in half of those twelve.

As for government options, a grand coalition isn't assured at all. SPD leader Sellering (incumbent prime minister) will hold coalition talks with both Linke and CDU; in his opinion according to an interview yesterday: "the SPD politically sits right in the middle between both parties; who we'll form a coalition with will depend on which party is willing to move towards our positions more than the other as we want to push through as much of our program as possible".
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern has had Red/Red coalitions before, and there are currently two other states with such a coalition (Berlin and Brandenburg) - so it wouldn't be "experimental" or anything like that. Due to that the Linke also wouldn't support a minority SPD/Greens government.

A Red/Red government would bring the Red/Red bloc within the Bundesrat to 11 votes. SPD/Greens is 19 votes, SPD alone 3 votes. The federal government only holds 22 votes, and another 14 votes are currently neutral.

**kato** · 06 Sep 11,, 23:31

Latest polls for Berlin btw (election on 18th)

Code:

		Emnid	Forsa	Emnid
		08/30	09/02	09/04

SPD		 33%	 32%	 32%
CDU		 24%	 21%	 23%
Greens		 19%	 19%	 20%
Left		 11%	 11%	 11%
Pirates		  4%	  5%	  4%
FDP		  5%	  4%	  4%
Others		  4%	  8%	  6%

Note: Emnid tends to be slightly more conservative than Forsa.

If Pirates and FDP don't make the cut it might be enough to retain the current SPD/Left government, otherwise we're looking at SPD/Greens. All three parties are usually slightly underestimated in polls by 1-2%, while in particular the FDP is often still overestimated (last polls for MV showed them at 4.0 to 4.5%).

Current (09/03) prognosis for distribution of direct mandates in Berlin (first-past-the-post, 78 out of 130 total mandates):

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(note for that: Berlin's voting system is freaking complicated and gives me a headache)

**kato** · 12 Sep 11,, 09:23

Municipal Elections in Lower Saxony yesterday (nominally 2,200 different local elections), aggregate results throughout the state:

- CDU 37.0% (-4.3%)
- SPD 34.9% (-1.7%)
- Greens 14.3% (+6.5%)
- FDP 3.4% (-3.3%)
- Left 2.4% (+1.5%)
- Others 8.0% (+1.3%)

At municipal level, "others" includes literally hundreds of local parties that only exist in and for their own towns. Also, Lower Saxony is to be considered a conservative country, there are some districts where the CDU traditionally manages two-thirds majorities. Overall, it's 41.4% for the federal - and state - government parties (-7.6%) and 49.2% for Red/Green (+4.8%).

David McAllister, the CDU state prime minister, considers the results a win for the CDU and rather positive because they managed to remain the largest party overall.

Municipal elections can not really be considered a yardstick to measure political opinion by though, as a lot of people tend to vote differently than in state or federal elections (e.g. the local parties take considerable numbers from both the conservative and Red/Green camps). Lower Saxony has its next state parliament elections on an as of yet undeclared date between October 2012 and January 2013.

**kato** · 13 Sep 11,, 23:40

Current German-wide political surveys, amalgated by me:

CDU - 33.50%
SPD - 29.25%
Greens - 19.00%
Left - 7.50%
FDP - 3.75%

(Red/Green: 48.25 : 41.0 in parliament)

Amalgated from: Forsa 09/07, FGW 09/09, Infratest 09/09, Emnid 09/11

**Doktor** · 14 Sep 11,, 01:10

Originally Posted by kato

Current German-wide political surveys, amalgated by me:

CDU - 33.50%
SPD - 29.25%
Greens - 19.00%
Left - 7.50%
FDP - 3.75%

(Red/Green: 48.25 : 41.0 in parliament)

Amalgated from: Forsa 09/07, FGW 09/09, Infratest 09/09, Emnid 09/11

CDU still ahead?