Likely? Someone is blowing smoke. The insinuation is that they will face massive street protests under the noses of an army of conscripts who can't be depended on to shoot their fellow countrymen. Egypt may have been under emergency rule, but it was not a closed country run by one-man rule. It would take enormous courage for North Koreans to confront Kim. At the first hint of a popular protest, there would be bodies in the street. Mugabe is an old man. He's sharing power. Castro is old and not well. The ropes in Cuba are being eased, but its army is loyal to Castro's brother. Police states are hard to overthrow.