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Thread: Worse. Than. Carter.

  1. #76
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    pari,

    By the skin of their teeth, against an enemy that is now far more savvy in exploiting Israels weaknesses.
    i disagree. even fighting with a boneheaded war plan against an entrenched enemy, israel did not lose (nor did it win, but...). the IDF has obviously since learned from that experience, so overall i'd say that israel gained more from that experience than did her enemies.

    the world has also changed since then. i'm not convinced the egyptians, syrians, jordanians, and iraqis have either the ability or the will to take on israel without superpower backing.

    as col yu indirectly mentions, if israel can't survive by itself as a state...especially against the caliber of her enemies...then their military is pretty pathetic.

    Until recently, China has been unable to reach Taiwan.
    things would be different without even US ambivalent backing.
    The human mind cannot grasp the causes of phenomena in the aggregate. But the need to find these causes is inherent in man’s soul. And the human intellect, without investigating the multiplicity and complexity of the conditions of phenomena, any one of which taken separately may seem to be the cause, snatches at the first, the most intelligible approximation to a cause, and says: “This is the cause!"

    -Leo Tolstoy
    War and Peace

  2. #77
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    Quote Originally Posted by Parihaka View Post
    By the skin of their teeth, against an enemy that is now far more savvy in exploiting Israels weaknesses. Isreal needs to only loose once.
    Whose fault is that? Pari, I am sorry BUT I WILL NOT COME TO ISRAEL'S defence. Israel came to Iran's defence during the Iran-Iraq War. Hell, she saved Iran during the Iran-Iraq War ... and what happened?

    Quote Originally Posted by Parihaka View Post
    Until recently, China has been unable to reach Taiwan.
    The defence of Taiwan also never depended on the Americans ... and it still is not.
    Chimo

  3. #78
    Dirty Kiwi Parihaka's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Countezero View Post
    It already "lost," to some degree, the last time it went into Lebanon, but I get what you're saying. Do you really think Israel faces a conventional threat these days, though? I can't see the nations that attacked it in the past doing so again.
    A conventional frontal assault? No.
    An escalation of rocket attacks by Hezbollah forcing the IDF to engage them in Sth Lebanon? Yes.
    Sanctions against Israel from the EU? Yes.
    Increases in rocket attacks from Gaza? Yes?
    A slow bleeding to death, and only at the death, nerve agents and a 'conventional assault'. At least that's how I'd do it.

  4. #79
    Dirty Kiwi Parihaka's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    pari,



    i disagree. even fighting with a boneheaded war plan against an entrenched enemy, israel did not lose (nor did it win, but...). the IDF has obviously since learned from that experience, so overall i'd say that israel gained more from that experience than did her enemies.
    If you're talking Lebanon, as far as I can see the only reason Hezbollah didn't hand the IDF it's arse on a plate was that they didn't have effective anti-tank missiles, something I'm lead to believe Iran has since remedied. This was down to a very odd OpObj on the part of the Israelis, but nevertheless... They seem to be a great deal less ruthless than they used to be, and even then are criticised immensely.
    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    the world has also changed since then.
    Really? Hasn't changed at all as far as I can see apart from American occupation of Iraq
    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    as col yu indirectly mentions, if israel can't survive by itself as a state...especially against the caliber of her enemies...then their military is pretty pathetic.
    No nation can stand alone. All that is required in Israels case is European sanctions, Russian support for their adversaries and American non participation. All purely political decisions.

    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    things would be different without even US ambivalent backing.
    Indeed they would, but China isn't Arabia. It sees the taiwanese as it's own people. Arabia sees the Israelites as a stain upon the sand.

  5. #80
    Dirty Kiwi Parihaka's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    Whose fault is that? Pari, I am sorry BUT I WILL NOT COME TO ISRAEL'S defence. Israel came to Iran's defence during the Iran-Iraq War. Hell, she saved Iran during the Iran-Iraq War ... and what happened?
    Sure. I just see the likely bloodshed ahead as sad. They is nice folks, but then there's nothing my country can do about it, except (I hope) take the survivors if the winners will let us.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Parihaka View Post
    Sure. I just see the likely bloodshed ahead as sad. They is nice folks, but then there's nothing my country can do about it, except (I hope) take the survivors if the winners will let us.
    The bloodshed will cascade over the region:(

  7. #82
    Defense Professional Dreadnought's Avatar
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    Worse then Carter, Hows about the "great one" sending John Kerry to Iran?

    With any luck they will ****ing keep him.

    Yeah, that will play out real well for those seeking voter transparency democracy and change in Iran. They will all end up dead as that regime will take this gesture as a pallet of acceptance.
    Fortitude.....The strength to persist...The courage to endure.

  8. #83
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    Quote Originally Posted by Parihaka View Post
    An escalation of rocket attacks by Hezbollah forcing the IDF to engage them in Sth Lebanon? Yes.
    But is that existential? The rocket attacks last time were not terribly effective.

    Quote Originally Posted by Parihaka View Post
    Sanctions against Israel from the EU? Yes.
    That's a possibility I hadn't thought of. I'll have to mull it over.

    Quote Originally Posted by Parihaka View Post
    A slow bleeding to death, and only at the death, nerve agents and a 'conventional assault'. At least that's how I'd do it.
    Or out-breed them. Israel is dying and the ever-growing Palestinian population -- and the terror groups -- knows this. In 25 years, there is an entirely new equation on the ground. That's why it's probably in Israel's interests to cut a deal on the two-state solution now.

    Quote Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    Whose fault is that? Pari, I am sorry BUT I WILL NOT COME TO ISRAEL'S defence. Israel came to Iran's defence during the Iran-Iraq War. Hell, she saved Iran during the Iran-Iraq War ... and what happened?
    I'm not sure I see your point here. The US was arming Iran during the Iran/Iraq war and giving them intelligence.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Countezero View Post
    I'm not sure I see your point here. The US was arming Iran during the Iran/Iraq war and giving them intelligence.
    That Israel sucks at playing the turning your enemies against each other game.
    Chimo

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    Quote Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    That Israel sucks at playing the turning your enemies against each other game.
    I don't know. Israel has done a good job of getting the Saudis and the Egyptians to quietly be on their side on many issues.

  11. #86
    Defense Professional Dreadnought's Avatar
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    Israel is dying? I dont suppose you have any numbers to offer in that defense do you?
    Fortitude.....The strength to persist...The courage to endure.

  12. #87
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dreadnought View Post
    Israel is dying? I dont suppose you have any numbers to offer in that defense do you?
    Not on me, as I'm traveling. Sorry.

    If I can recall correctly: There's a section in a book I read last year that discusses. Essentially, people aren't migrating to Israel anymore the way they were post-WW2. That generation is dying off. And they aren't a heck of a lot of " new" Zionists out there. On top of that, young people are leaving because of safety and economic concerns. Meanwhile, the Palestinians, who already constitute about 40 percent of the population, are out-breeding them.

  13. #88
    Senior Contributor Castellano's Avatar
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    About the threats to Israel

    Its [Israelīs] remarkable progress over the decades has not liberated it from a multi-pronged peril that includes nearly every means imaginable:weapons of mass destruction, conventional military attack, terrorism, internal subversion, economic blockade, demographic assault, and ideological undermining. No other contemporary state faces such an array of threats; indeed, probably none in history ever has.

    The enemies of Israel divide into two main camps: the Left and the Muslims, with the far Right a minor third element. The Left includes a rabid edge (International ANSWER, Noam Chomsky) and a more polite centre (United Nations General Assembly, Canada's Liberal Party, the mainstream media, mainline churches, school textbooks). In the final analysis, however, the Left serves less as a force in its own right than as an auxiliary for the primary anti-Zionist actor, which is the Muslim population.

    This latter, in turn, can be divided into three distinct groupings.

    First come the foreign states: Five armed forces that invaded Israel on its independence in May 1948, and then neighboring armies, air forces, and navies fought in the wars of 1956, 1967, 1970, and 1973. While the conventional threat has somewhat receded, Egypt's U.S.-financed arms build-up presents one danger and the threats from weapons of mass destruction (especially from Iran but also from Syria and potentially from many other states) present an even greater one.

    Second come the external Palestinians, those living outside Israel. Sidelined by governments from 1948 until 1967, Yasir Arafat and the Palestine Liberation Organization got their opportunity with the defeat of three states' armed forces in the Six-Day War. Subsequent developments, such as the 1982 Lebanon war and the 1993 Oslo accords, confirmed the centrality of external Palestinians. Today, they drive the conflict, through violence (terrorism, missiles from Gaza) and even more importantly by driving world opinion against Israel via a public relations effort that resonates widely among Muslims and the Left.

    Third come the Muslim citizens of Israel, the sleepers in the equation. In 1949, they numbered merely 111,000, or 9 percent of Israel's population but by 2005, they had multiplied ten-fold, to 1,141,000, and to 16 percent of the population. They benefited from Israel's open ways to evolve from a docile and ineffective community into a assertive one that increasingly rejects the Jewish nature of the Israeli state, with potentially profound consequences for that the future identity of that state.
    Israel's Predicament at 60: World's worst neighbourhood :: Daniel Pipes

    In the ideological undermining bit, we know quite a bit here.

    On the point raised before about conventional attacks, I agree with Pipes that while it has receded, there can be a danger from Egypt. Perhaps not a head on confrontation, but I think Egypt is a wreck, I think it would be worse in 10 years time, and is possibly going to be taken over by the Muslim Brotherhood or some other terrorist gang. Egypt is the major center in the Arab/Muslim World spreading anti-semitic propaganda, and its population is brainwashed with it. And Egypt for example has something like 700 Abrams tanks (which I understand are better than the Merkavas) and other advanced weapons - paid for by the US.
    L'essentiel est invisible pour les yeux

  14. #89
    Senior Contributor Castellano's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    That Israel sucks at playing the turning your enemies against each other game.
    Sir, I didnīt get your point. Could you explain it briefly?

    Thanks.
    L'essentiel est invisible pour les yeux

  15. #90
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    Quote Originally Posted by Castellano View Post
    ...And Egypt for example has something like 700 Abrams tanks (which I understand are better than the Merkavas) and other advanced weapons - paid for by the US.
    We have Jimmy Carter to thank for that. Side agreements to the Camp David Accords require the US to give Egypt 75% of however much we give Israel. So if Israel gets $4 billion in aid, Egypt gets $3 Billion.

    This is the deal Carter struck, and the US has been paying both countries to pretend they like each other ever since.

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