Elections to Watch in 2009

**Merlin** · 17 Mar 09,, 22:56

A list compiled in Jan 2009 by Foreign Policy.

The List: Elections to Watch in 2009

Bolivia, Date: Jan. 25, 2009 and Dec. 6, 2009

What's at stake: Bolivians will go to the polls on Jan. 25 for a referendum on a new national constitution. Championed by President Evo Morales, the new constitution would empower Bolivia's indigenous majority and increase state control over the economy...

Nevertheless, observers expect the constitution to gain the support of a majority of voters. Assuming that occurs, early elections will by held on Dec. 6, 2009 for president, vice-president, and congress. If Morales wins both contests, he will have cemented his legacy on Bolivian politics. ...

Israel, Date: February 10, 2009 ...

South Africa, Date: Sometime between March and May, 2009

The Palestinian Authority, Date: "Very soon," perhaps in April

Who's Running: Fatah's Mahmoud Abbas and Hamas's Ismail Haniyah.

What's at stake: In the wake of Israel's assault on Hamas infrastructure in the Gaza Strip, a Hamas victory in the presidential and legislative elections - if they are held at all -- for the Palestinian Authority would signal Palestinian endorsement of Hamas's implacable resistance to the Israeli regime. In the absence of reconciliation between Hamas and Fatah, Abbas will most likely face off against Ismail Haniyah, a Hamas leader and former prime minister of the PA Hamas emerged victorious in the 2006 legislative elections, wining 74 seats to Fatah's 45.

Hamas staged an armed takeover of the Gaza Strip in the summer of 2006, triggering a rift between the two factions which persists to this day. These elections could allow the Palestinian parties to form a unified political front against Israel, or cement the rivalry between Hamas and Fatah. Polls taken before the Israeli offensive showed Abbas and Fatah leading by a healthy margin in both the West Bank and Gaza. Abbas had hoped that a new round of elections, or the threat of them, could force Hamas to take a more accommodating outlook towards reconciliation talks. The duration and the severity of the Israeli campaign in Gaza, however, could leave his plans in disarray.

India
Date: April or May, 2009

Who's running: Manmohan Singh (Indian National Congress), L.K Advani (Bharatiya Janata Party)

What's at stake: Following the terrorist attacks that rocked the financial center of Mumbai in late November, leaving more than 200 dead and 300 wounded, members of the ruling Congress Party feared voters would punish them in the upcoming elections to the Indian legislature. However, that appears increasingly unlikely. Congress notched surprise victories in three state elections in early December over the Hindu nationalist BJP.

Though the BJP tried to turn that election into a referendum on security, it appears that development issues such as access to clean water and electricity were foremost on voters' minds. India has been hit hard by the global economic slowdown - industrial production has fallen for the first time in 15 years - and it appears that these economic concerns may still trump fears of terrorism.

Iran

Date: June 12, 2009

Who's running: President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, former Majlis Speaker Mehdi Karroubi, and maybe Tehran Mayor Mohammad Qalibaf and former President Mohammed Khatami

What's at stake: Critics have blamed Ahmadinejad for the worsening state of the Iranian economy, which has been further damaged by plummeting oil prices. In November, 60 of Iran's economists published a letter accusing Ahmadinejad's policies of producing skyrocketing inflation rates and high unemployment. Furthermore, the letter charged, Ahmadinejad's "tension-making interaction with the outside world," with causing foreign investments to flee the country.

Former President Mohammad Khatami has yet to declare whether he will be a candidate in the upcoming presidential elections. If the Iranian public rallies to Khatami, it could potentially pave the way for a rapprochement between the U.S. and Iran. Don't, however, count Ahmadinejad out yet. He still retains an important trump card: the support of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader.

Mexico

Date: July 5, 2009

Who's Running: The National Action Party (PAN), the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD), and the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI)

What's at stake: The term of President Felipe Calderón, the leader of PAN, has been marked by an increasingly aggressive, increasingly bloody, and increasingly controversial war against Mexico's powerful drug cartels. Drug violence claimed nearly 5,000 lives in 2008.

The legislative elections will determine whether Calderón maintains support in the Chamber of Deputies to continue his drug war. In the 2006 elections, PAN claimed 206 out of the 500 total seats in the Chamber of Deputies, while the leftist PRD won 127 seats. The PRD has been critical of Calderón's confrontational approach, and has called for a "National Agreement to Combat Organized Crime," which would include a discussion on the legalization of drugs. If the PAN emerges victorious, Calderón will have a free hand to continue his prosecution of the drug war. If the PRD gains strength, he may find himself hamstrung by a hostile legislature.

Sudan
Date: Scheduled for July 2009; the U.N. has recommended that they be delayed to avoid the rainy season in southern Sudan

Who's running: President Omar al-Bashir of the National Congress Party (NCP) and Salva Kiir of the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM)

What's at stake: These presidential and legislative elections are an important milestone for the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), signed in 2005 between the predominantly Arab government in Khartoum and the southern-based former rebels and marking the end of the second Sudanese civil war. The rival factions have been building up their arms in anticipation of the elections, hoping to expand their support through extra-democratic means. This has lead to increasingly frequent clashes, particularly in the contested Southern Kordofan region.

Meanwhile, President Bashir finds himself embattled both internationally and domestically. A prosecutor for the International Criminal Court has requested a warrant for his arrest, accusing him of genocide and war crimes in the Darfur region. Kiir, the head of the southern SPLM who has been Bashir's partner in a unity government since 2005, has announced that he will oppose him in the coming elections. Even if Bashir manages to cling to power, a strong showing by the opposition could foreshadow the secession of Southern Sudan in a vote scheduled for 2011, in accordance with the CPA.

Germany

Date: Sept. 27, 2009

Who's running: Angela Merkel (Christian Democratic Union), Frank-Walter Steinmeier (Social Democratic Party)

What's at stake: While the United States and most of Europe pass ever-larger stimulus packages to combat the global economic downturn, Chancellor Angela Merkel has remained a lonely voice in opposition. Her insistence that Germany would not get involved in "a competition to outdo one another with an endless list of new proposals," which she deemed "senseless," earned her the nickname of "Madame No" across Europe. The approaching Bundestag elections will test whether German voters approve of her low-key approach to the financial crisis.

Merkel's Christian Democratic Union currently forms a grand coalition government with its main rival, the center-left Social Democratic Party, which has nominated Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier as its leader. While current polls suggest that Merkel will beat Steinmeier, it does not appear that either party can increase its support enough to form a governing coalition with one of Germany's smaller parties. Thus, many expect the grand coalition, which Der Spiegel dubbed a "loveless marriage" and a recipe for political paralysis, to continue.

Afghanistan

Date: Late 2009

Who's running: Hamid Karzai, former Finance Minister Ashraf Ghani, and current Finance Minister Anwar ul-Haq Ahady

What's at stake: This presidential election will not only gauge President Karzai's success at weathering charges of corruption and ineffectiveness, but the extent to which the U.S. military has succeeded in dealing with the renewed Taliban insurgency. Karzai's brother is believed to be the head of a drug trafficking group involved in the opium and heroin trade. More damaging to his reputation inside Afghanistan, Karzai's government is perceived to be largely ineffective outside of Kabul, unable to provide security of basic social welfare programs.

Smelling blood, Taliban leader Mullah Omar has rejected Karzai's requests for reconciliation and called for a boycott of the upcoming elections. If the U.S. military cannot co-opt or defeat large segments of the Taliban insurgency before the election, Afghans in the provinces may not be able to vote, or could be attacked by the Taliban at polling stations. Such a fiasco could destroy Karzai's legitimacy and cause the U.S. and its remaining allies to question their commitment to Afghanistan.

**Merlin** · 19 Mar 09,, 08:53

Among the 2009 elections listed above, the Bolivian and the Israeli elections have taken place.

In the Bolivian election, the new constitution proposed by Evo Morales has been approved. This allows him, Bolivia's first indigenous President, to run again in Dec 2009.

Other than race, there is another divide. Opposition to Moreles will remain in parts of Bolivia's rebellious eastern lowlands, where most of the nation's food and petroleum are produced and where Morales is opposed by strong regional leaders.

Many of you may know the Israeli Election results. Both Tzipi Livni's ruling Kadima Party and Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud challenger declared victory as Israel's general election came to a tight finish. The final outcome is that Netanyahu got a coalition with more seats and was invited to be prime minister.

There seems to be no news of the Palestanian Authority election. How about the Indian election?

**Merlin** · 19 Mar 09,, 11:45

There are many in this forum from India. But here below are some information about the Indian Election dates.

India sets date for national elections

Mar 3, 2009 [Times] INDIA has finally set the dates for its national elections, formally kicking off a frantic 40 days of campaigning for the 714 million votes up for grabs in the world's largest democracy.

Voting is staggered over five phases from April 16 to May 13 to enable the deployment of 2.1 million security personnel and 1.9 million other electoral staff around 800,000 polling stations, according to the Election Commission.

Ballots will be counted on May 16 and results will be announced soon after — setting the political course for 1.1billion Indians in the midst of a tense stand-off with Pakistan and a global economic slump.

Yet with campaigning barely under way, concerns are already being raised that the vote will produce another ungainly coalition government unable, or unwilling, to tackle the gargantuan challenges facing India.

The race is expected to be dominated again by the Congress Party, which heads the current coalition Government, and the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which lost power in the last poll in 2004. ...

**Merlin** · 22 Mar 09,, 15:27

Oh! The Indonesian 2009 election is not in the above list. Their election campagn has got kicked off a few days ago, and the election date is April 9.

Indonesia has the world'a largest Muslim population. There are 170 million voters.

Indonesia's election campaign kicks off

March 16, 2009 [SydneyMH] Indonesia's election season has officially kicked off, with dozens of political parties openly wooing millions of undecided voters ahead of next month's poll. ...

The campaign will last 20 days, and wrap up four days before the April 9 poll, in which more than 11,000 candidates will compete for fewer than 700 seats in parliament.

About 170 million people are registered to vote in the election, which will be followed by a presidential poll in July.

Incumbent Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, or SBY, is widely expected to hold on to the nation's top job, and his Democratic Party is expected to do well in next month's poll.

In an address to the nation, SBY called on political parties and authorities to obey election laws and keep rallies peaceful.

.. the government will mobilise 1.4 million soldiers, police and other personnel to maintain security and guard polling stations throughout the election season. ...

**Merlin** · 22 Mar 09,, 16:18

Many of you may know the Indian general election is going to be held soon, in April and May 2009.

India to hold general elections from April to May

Mar 4, 2009 INDIA IS to hold general elections in five phases in April and May in which more than 714 million people are eligible to vote.

The independent election commission said voting would take place between April 16th and May 13th and results for the 545-member parliament would be declared on May 16th. The new administration would be sworn in immediately thereafter, replacing prime minister Manmohan Singh’s Congress Party-led federal coalition, which completes its five-year term in May.

Chief election commissioner N Gopalaswami said staggered voting was to allow security forces to deploy around the country to prevent unscrupulous candidates coercing an electorate that is more than twice the population of the United States. The month-long process would involve some four million election workers, half of them security personnel manning 828,804 polling centres that will house 1.1 million electronic voting machines. ...

The electoral line-up is between the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance and the main opposition bloc, headed by the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) that was ousted from office in 2004. Both parties are lobbying hard to stitch up alliances in order to seize an early advantage. ...