affinor

Are India and China doomed for another war?

Surely all threads that i've read on Sino-Indian relations have been that of mistrust, possibility of another war, and suggestions that hint that the countries can never be good friends, only contemporaries.

But it would be interesting to think of another scenario, lets say a couple or more decades from now, when both the countries would have progressed a lot but still not in the top club with strong mutual trade ties. Can such ties compel the countries to be the best of friends (or rather as a country of great national interest).

I understand that my perspective is based on mutually beneficial trade ties. As of today, the industries on either side are very wary of each other considering investments more as an invasion into their markets. So how could such a relation blossom? The answer might lie if we consider.

a) China and India, despite competition in some areas do compliment each other quite well . Thus it might be wrong to assume that they will always be competitors. The relations have a sym biotic nature, different from Chinas relation to SE Asian countries.

b) Low trade deficit between two countries doesnt seem to indicate that it can grow to very large levels whereby one country is reduced to more of a consumer status.

http://www.meet-asia.com/HotNewsDetail.asp?NewsID=231

Though with the present situation such scenario looks bleak, it still remains a possibility. Also considering the fact that evolution of such a relation would happen naturally rather than the govts. pushing for it(there isnt much indication for that). But wouldnt such a scenario upset a lot of calculations and wont it be more beneficial to both countries?? I was wondering how many people have similar views.

ajaybhutani

well an idea of a joint triangular axis was proposed by russia in the mid 90's with india china and russia as three roles. And somehow I think russia has a lot to do in diffusing the tension between the two. Well as of today the relations are much better politically due to the recent visits from both sides. Continous talks are giong on to settle down the border ( which is still not defined). In trade we no longer see each otehr as competitors Indian companies are investing in china and chineese ones in india. And there are talks about the cooperaative growth rather than competitive growth all over the place .Like china is good in Compure hardware while india in software . and a good combination can bring in benefits for both. Mututal investments and trade are dricing in growth and mutual trust between the two countries. The two asian giants coming together is the need of the hour and not a choice that the politicians can now decide on.

amit

India & China soon will be each other's largest trade partners. India will be China's biggest trade partner surpassing the USA. So, it is possible that interdependence on each other will prevent another war.

affinor

[QUOTE=amit]India & China soon will be each other's largest trade partners.

China currently is Indias 2nd largest trading partner, US being the largest.


India will be China's biggest trade partner surpassing the USA.


This is simply not true. Indias overall trade with china is around 10 billion dollars.
China's export and inport were roughly around 500 billion dollars. The trade b'/w the two from chinese standpoint is anything but worthwhile

http://english.people.com.cn/english...00120X126.html
http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/02/...g/sxchina.html

So, it is possible that interdependence on each other will prevent another war.


There is'nt any interdependence right now, nor would a dependence right now be of great consequence. However the prospective nature of this dependence, if it was to grow, is interesting. As the countries grow to achieve larger economic and political might, it would decide if the countries would be friends or adversaries.

affinor

I have always been wary of the triangular axis proposed. The depth in relations with Russia is not as great as it used to be. What I was wondering is, could there arise a defining relation between India and China, based entirely on economic ties. which could in turn mould the political process.

It is always possible to form a strategic political relations but such a relation will not go too deep.

This is exactly what I meant. The nations can compliment each other really well and the ties can grow much stronger. How much stronger will they actually get (without too much political interference) is what I have been wondering.

Rahul

You know Affinor, the Kaiser's Germany and Great Britain prior to WWI had strong economic links and even links by blood through their royal families. That did little to stop them from going to war with each other. I do seriously believe India and China will at least have some sort of border clash in the future, given the unresolved border and the contentious issue of Tibet. Plus, things like recent events in Nepal could cause both countries' interests to clash.

__________________
Am out of town for a while and then have tons of work coming up at school. Will be back once that's all done.

affinor

Yes I completely agree with you on that. Development of new political situations or even newer political initiatives within the two countries can significantly alter the relations. We might very well see a transformation to democracy in china much earlier than anticipated. Similarly on the other hand a new war will truly annihilate all mutual developments. Thats why I tried to avoid all the political influences , coz it brings in so much uncertainty but I guess it is unavoidable for the two countries to move without any conflicts.