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ASEAN under pressure to act as Myanmar protests mount


Agence France-Presse

KUALA LUMPUR - Southeast Asian nations have long been reluctant to confront their reviled neighbor Myanmar, but as protests mount in Yangon, observers say they risk losing credibility if they fail to act.

In the 10 years since it joined the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Myanmar has proved a major headache for the budding democracies of the region, who have been admonished by the west for failing to press for reforms.

"By any normal global international standards, ASEAN hasn't done much. I suspect many of the policymakers in Kuala Lumpur or Singapore or Jakarta or Manila will admit to that," said Hiro Katsumata from the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.

"But this is not surprising because ASEAN needs Myanmar more than Myanmar needs ASEAN," he said, adding that the region feared the resource-rich nation could turn its back on the grouping in favor of closer ties with China.

In the face of the bravery of more than 100,000 people who stood alongside Buddhist monks in the streets of Myanmar's biggest city on Monday, regional governments are now facing loud calls to show their support.

"ASEAN can obviously do a lot more -- it's just a question of whether they want to. And with this internal protest and defiance of the people, it would be shameful if they kept quiet," said Malaysian lawmaker Zaid Ibrahim.

"They should use all their diplomacy and power and influence to pressure the regime," said Zaid, president of the ASEAN Inter-Parliamentary Caucus, which was formed in 2004 to push for democratic reform in Myanmar.

Zaid said he was sure that although the ruling generals had not yet done anything to halt a week of street protests led by the revered monks, they would eventually "hit back" and that lives would be lost.

"I would expect some severe reprisals and crackdowns and more brutality from the regime. I think this is inevitable and I think the people of Burma know this and I hope they will not be deterred by it."

So far there has been little response from regional governments except the Philippines, which said Monday it wants to see democracy flourish in Myanmar.

ASEAN secretary general Ong Keng Yong has merely said he hoped the protests will remain "peaceful and calm", and his predecessor Rodolfo Severino indicated that little else would be forthcoming.

"Very little -- they could deliver a statement," Severino told AFP when asked what options the 10-bloc grouping had.

"What else can they do? Send in troops? I don't think ASEAN's in a position to do that. I think this is something that has to be worked out by the government and people of Myanmar."

Stirred into action by the United States and European governments which were highly critical of its performance, ASEAN has come out with some unusually bold statements against the junta in recent years.

But despite mutterings about introducing a mechanism to suspend or expel the military-run state from the 10-nation bloc, there has been no action to match the rhetoric.

Jawahar Hassan, director of Malaysia's Institute of Strategic and International Studies, said that with the stakes now so high, nations in the region are even less likely to intervene.

"If nothing is happening in Myanmar they can issue some strong statements because it would not be seen as supporting opposition to Myanmar," he said.

"But when all this is happening to have to be careful... ASEAN governments cannot be seen to be supporting any movement against the government which may turn out to be violent."

After years of saying that change in Myanmar must come from within, Southeast Asia is being warned that now that just such a scenario has presented itself, the region cannot stand idle.

"Certainly ASEAN will not look good," said Katsumata.

"Human rights and democracy are becoming important parts of global norms, so the slower the ASEAN approach is, the worse ASEAN will appear in the eyes of the international audience."

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China could play crucial role in Myanmar crisis


Reuters

BEIJING - If there is one power that could pressure Myanmar to avoid a bloody crackdown on the country's biggest anti-government protests in 20 years, it is China.

Beijing, Myanmar's neighbor, is a major trade partner and protector.

Publicly, China has repeated its appeals for stability and avoided making the calls for restraint coming from Western powers, who fear the demonstrations could end as they did in 1988 -- with a military crackdown and huge loss of life.

Privately, though, China could be playing a more nuanced role and is increasingly concerned about its international image as its diplomatic weight grows and as it prepares to host the 2008 Olympics in Beijing, an event that has already become a lightning rod for activists.

"Generally speaking, China will avoid interfering in other countries' internal affairs," said Li Chenyang, director of the Southeast Asian Studies Center at Yunnan University.

"But China certainly hopes Myanmar can maintain stability and resolve the issue in its own way," he said.

"China has been making more of an effort of late to convey concerns of the international community to the government in Burma," said a Western diplomat based in Beijing.

"China could demonstrate that it takes its international responsibility seriously by using its influence with the Burmese government to try to encourage a positive outcome there," the diplomat said.

But whether it will do so is an open question.

In January, China and Russia vetoed a resolution calling on the junta to stop persecuting minority and opposition groups and to take concrete steps toward democracy, arguing the UN Security Council was exceeding its mandate.

But recently senior Chinese diplomat Tang Jiaxuan urged Myanmar to push forward with a "democracy process that is appropriate for the country". And earlier this year, China's foreign ministry published an unflattering account of Myanmar's new capital, an indication of some displeasure with its neighbor.

Strategic goals

Still, Myanmar is not only a source of timber and minerals for China, it is part of a strategic push by Beijing to secure energy resources and an alternative route for oil and natural gas supplies through the Bay of Bengal.

China has already approved a pipeline that would help supply crude to its southwestern provinces and allow importers to bypass the Strait of Malacca, one of the world's busiest shipping channels.

"In the broader field of things, Myanmar is central to China's strategic interests as a neighbor," said Christopher Roberts, a research associate at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.

"When you take into account India and Russia also vying for good relations with Myanmar, that would be another factor that would affect its decisions," he said.

China, which staged its own military crackdown on pro-democracy protesters in Tiananmen Square in 1989, is also wary of any domino effect that political liberalization on its borders might have.

While some see China as a possible restraining influence on Myanmar's generals and an emerging global power that could play a backroom mediating role, other analysts say it has no desire to use any pressure it could wield.

"It's in their economic interests to preserve the status quo," said Bertil Lintner, a Myanmar expert based in the northern Thai city of Chiang Mai.

And while no one questions China's desire to protect its strategic interests in Myanmar, some wonder whether even Beijing has the strength to sway its ruling generals.

"I'm not sure at the end of the day China can deliver Than Shwe, even if they want to," said Bradley Babson, a retired World Bank Asia expert, referring to the junta's most powerful figure.

"Than Shwe will not come under the thumb of any outside power, including the Chinese."