wkllaw

I like to bring our attention to the chinese in the russian far east. There seems to be some fear that the chinese there would outnumber the russians and make the russian far east part of China.

I find it ridiculous, China has too many people and the russian far east and siberia are scarcely populated. The people in siberia are actually having a population declining faster than the nation.

What are your thoughts, is the chinese people in siberia a danger or a threat to Russia in any way?

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chankya

I have a few questions. Are the chinese in siberia chinese or russian citizens? I take it they illegaly cross over ?

I'm just wondering what the growth rate for the chinese population in siberia is?

Okay... so lots of questions!

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entropy

A huge amount of illegal immigrants, being paid dirt in Siberia.

Actually some of the villages in Siberia are already undergoing a process of Sinofication. Street signs are being written in Chinese in some places.

If there will be a "conquest", how will it happen? Will the Chinese just claim the region or would they negotiate?

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If memory serves...

Alex_Ivanov

There're not so many of them, at least in my region. Haven't seen huge ammount of chinese in/around Khabarovsk either, but I can't say for other places.

I'd answer 'no' to both questions. It looks like the more chinese people (mostly lower class) live abroad the less headache chinese government has. Plus, Siberia/Far East aren't resort areas. China has its own hardly populated lands, and their development isn't any harder than development of siberian taiga, imo.

P.S. Many chinese cpme not to live here, but to earn money and return to China. Overall, I don't see threat today.

Zhang Fei

I think your second paragraph precisely makes the case for a potential Chinese threat to continued Russian possession of its Far Eastern territories. A land (Siberia) without people for a people (Chinese) without land. I understand some people here think that we have reached the end of history - that territorial boundaries are fixed for the rest of eternity. I don't subscribe to that belief. The Chinese empire has increased its territorial extent every time it has grown strong. Relatively speaking, China has been weak for about two centuries. It is now growing strong.

entropy

I see in your words, pact brother of Liu Bei, a claim for Russian land. As if "you don't need it, so we will take it". Unfortunately for you, Russia will not allow it to happen, unless you have a crazy man in power who will sell pieces of Russia like they did to Alaska.

Zhang Fei

The Chinese man on the street believes the Russian Far East ought to belong to China. I'm agnostic in this regard, since China and Russia are both big boys (i.e. huge empires) that got their land the old-fashioned way, via armed conquest. I do believe that if Russia needs help resisting a Chinese incursion, Uncle Sam ought to step in with material assistance at the very least, for the same reason that he provided material assistance to Chinese forces during the Sino-Japanese war - to deny resources to a rising potential adversary. A Russia without the Russian Far East may also mean a Russia that has difficulty protecting Mongolia and Central Asia against Chinese ambitions. Recall that British and French forces went to war against Russia to keep the Ottoman empire standing. If China invades the Russian Far East, Uncle Sam may go to war against China to keep the Russian empire standing.

wkllaw

sorry about that, I just felt like rambling, I forgot to organize it my thoughts.

Officer of Engineers

Currently, China has enough border problems without looking for new ones. Taiwan, North Korea, and the Chinese have not forgotten about India, just put it on the back burner.

2ndly, Moscow has pretty well abandoned non-1st use of nuclear weapons and China is decades behind in that regard.

Lastly, there's not enough force in theatre to make any conquest or claim stick. The 38 and 39GAs are still extremely impotent when compared to their Guards and Shock counterparts.

Sure, there are wide open spaces ... enough for all of China's population but there's only an extremely few habitable areas and those are extremely well entrenched.

It's the same argument internet warriors touted about China taking on Canada. By the time they can reach a city, they will be beggars, not soldiers.

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Chimo

wkllaw

I'm actually not talking about conquest, but more about are they a threat to the russian identity there or the possiblity of ethnic violence.

Officer of Engineers

Has happened before and it will happen again but ethnic Chinese autonomy in the region? Not going to happen.

entropy

Sir, would the Russian strategic bomber fleet (and the Chinese lack of it) play a big role?
And if the Chinese would launch an assault across Manchuria, would it be profitable for Russia to open a second front and take Urumgi?

Officer of Engineers

For cutting Chinese LOCs? Extreme big role.

I really don't see the need. Chinese logistics would limit any incursion to 100 miles in the best months and probably zero miles during the coldest winter days.

Zhang Fei

China's definitely in no position to move against Russia today. My point is that ordinary Chinese feel that the Russian Far East rightly belongs to China, and was lost via the kind of "unequal treaty" via which China lost Korea, Manchuria, Vietnam, Burma, Okinawa and Hong Kong, among other territories. My feeling is that revanchist Chinese views will prevail - and China will act once it is strong enough. Meaning that the Russians shouldn't get too comfortable with their current relationship with China. China has a two thousand year history of "barbarian pacification" - the banner under which it annexed new lands.

texacali

Russia and Canada both are laying claims to arctic territory now made accessible by sealanes opening. China would seem to see an opportunity here. If establishing an ethnic presence gives them a pretext for military or diplomatic action, what have they got to lose?