Losing Another War ... in Asia

Ray · 04-25-2007, 14:38 PM

Quote:

Losing Another War ... in Asia

'You have many friends [here]. But the attitude of many Asian nations is that China will be here for 2,000 years. America may go away.'

By Fareed Zakaria
Newsweek

April 30, 2007 issue - If you want to know which way the breeze is blowing in Asia, check out a bookstore in Hanoi. The two I went to while visiting there last week were stocked with the usual stuff—the writings of Ho Chi Minh and General Giap—and many signs of the new Vietnam, which meant books on business and management plus a seemingly legal Vietnamese translation of Hillary Clinton's memoirs. Prominently displayed along with all these wares were the collected speeches of Chinese leaders Deng Xiaoping, Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao.

The Vietnamese have no particular love for China. One official there, who asked to remain anonymous because of the sensitivity of the relationship, said to me, "We are clear-eyed. China has occupied Vietnam for 1,000 years. It has invaded us 13 times since then. But China is a huge presence, our biggest exporter." And everyone I spoke to in Hanoi agreed that the Chinese were handling them with great dexterity. Before arriving in Vietnam I had been in Tokyo, during Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao's state visit, and I heard a similar refrain from the Japanese. Wen finessed the many points of tension between the two countries and instead accentuated the positive—their booming economic ties.

Talk of China's "soft power" has grown over the last year. But what I saw last week was not evidence of soft power in the sense Harvard professor Joseph Nye meant when he coined the term—the attractiveness of a country and its values. Few people in Asia are actively pining for "the Chinese Dream" because it's not really clear what that is—and to the extent that there is one it sounds suspiciously like the American Dream. Really, it's China's hard power that is on the rise. Beijing has become remarkably adept at using its political and economic muscle in a patient, low-key and highly effective manner.

China's diplomacy emphasizes its core strengths—a long-term perspective, a nonpreachy attitude and strategic decision-making that isn't bogged down by internal opposition or bureaucratic paralysis. Over the last decade, for example, China has greatly improved its historically tense relations with Southeast Asia. It's taken a more accommodating political line, provided generous aid packages (often far outstripping those provided by the United States) and moved speedily on a free-trade deal with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Japan wanted to cut a similar deal but has dithered, racked by power struggles between political and bureaucratic factions in Tokyo. The United States can't even begin such a conversation with ASEAN because we will not talk to Burma. One result: this summer China plans to hold military exercises with some of these countries, most of which have been U.S. allies for decades.

And yet no one is comfortable with an Asia dominated by China. Singapore's shrewd prime minister, Lee Hsien Loong, who will be in Washington this week, urges the United States to be far more actively engaged. "You have many friends in this region," he says. "But the attitude of many Asian nations is that China will be here for 2,000 years. America is here today but may go away. And if you stop paying attention to us, we have only one suitor and only one option."

The Bush administration's basic policies in Asia have been intelligent. Washington has maintained good and productive relations with China while also strengthening ties to Japan, India, Australia, Singapore and Vietnam. But the relationship is plagued by two problems. First, the administration has been obsessed with Iraq, and so everything else, including Asia, gets too little sustained and strategic attention. Second, America is still beleaguered by the total collapse of its image abroad, which makes it difficult for countries like Indonesia and Thailand to take measures that are seen as pro-American.

When I asked Prime Minister Lee how to change this dynamic, he reminded me that nearly half of Southeast Asia's population is Muslim and said, "The single most important thing that the U.S. could do to shift its image in the region would be to take a more active role on the Israeli-Palestinian issue and in a balanced way. The issue is more important for Southeast Asia's Muslims than even Iraq." Singapore's strategic elite, with close ties to the United States and Israel, aren't trying to score ideological points. They don't offer the usual stinging criticism of America's Iraq policy, for example. When I asked Lee about it, his concern was simple: "If you lose standing [because of] Iraq, it's bad for us."

The real problem with our Asia policy is not the Bush administration but the U.S. political system. Congress is in a narrow-minded and protectionist mood, unlikely to see the need for trade agreements, foreign aid and far greater engagement with a crucial country like Vietnam. Minor issues, ideological obsessions and small but tenacious domestic lobbies hold back sustained strategic movement in foreign policy. There is little time for this. Singapore's senior statesman, Lee Kuan Yew, believes that the United States will be able to bounce back from its current troubles. But, he says, "by the time you get around to focusing on the region, you will find a very different Asia."

Write the author at comments@fareedzakaria.com.
© 2007 Newsweek, Inc. | Subscribe to Newsweek

Zakaria: Losing Another War ... in Asia - Newsweek International Editions - MSNBC.com

The home truth that one must understand is that the rise of China has not made any nation in Asia any more comfortable.

While most would not grudge China doing well for its people, the Chinese military quest does worry most.

Bush maybe criticised for shortsightedness in many areas, but his Asia policy is worth noting and he should be given credit for that. He has practically roped in many countries that were thought to be anti US, India and Vietnam for instance. Both have never been very comfortable with China.

China will remain in Asia, but the US has to ensure that it there is no love lost for China since China is the future challenge to the US.

The soft and unimposing attitude of China, which is drawing the non aligned, especially in Africa, is what the US has to adopt. Run silent Run deep. No one likes to be treated like a minion. Each partners is what should be the game plan with a slight unobtrusive message, without appearing imposing, that some are more equal than others. So long nations can 'save face', none will be there to complain!

Ray · 04-25-2007, 14:43 PM

Quote:

China Humbles U.S., Japan in Asian Charm Game: William Pesek

By William Pesek

April 25 (Bloomberg) -- China's economy has humbled many smart people in recent years.

It has defied those arguing it would slow, those predicting a hard landing, those saying its currency would surge and those concerned that social unrest would shake Asia's second-biggest economy to its core.

Yet no one has been more outmaneuvered by China than the world's two biggest economic powers: the U.S. and Japan.

As Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and U.S. President George W. Bush meet in Washington later this week, both leaders may think markets give a hoot. Abe and Bush may hope that by solidifying ties, investors will somehow feel the global marketplace is a safer, more prosperous place.

Together, the U.S. and Japan produce economic output of $17.8 trillion, while China produces just $2.6 trillion. That means investors and policy makers the world over should be comforted that the U.S. and Japan have arguably never been closer. Yet even independently, both economies should have tremendous sway over smaller, developing ones.

Not China. If officials in Washington and Tokyo have learned anything in the last few years, it's that China won't be pressured into changes or concessions it doesn't feel ready for. While the examples include everything from democracy to human rights to piracy, the clearest demonstration of China's resolve to go at its own pace is the yuan.

Paulson Humbled

If anyone should understand that, it's Henry Paulson. In June 2006, Paulson shocked Wall Street when he left Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to join the Bush administration. ``What is he thinking?'' was a common question as Paulson joined a lame-duck, scandal-plagued White House. Paulson's stature and decades-long experience with China, many believed, would serve the U.S. well.

Almost one year later, Paulson has been even less successful than his predecessor, John Snow, in getting China to boost the yuan. Nor has he prodded China to open an economy that grew 11.1 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier.

Granted, Paulson hasn't had much time in the job. Yet it was always the case that he needed to act fast to win concessions from China to placate U.S. lawmakers threatening tariffs. Just like Snow, Paulson has been outmaneuvered by China on the yuan and on winning friends in Asia. So has Japan.

Say what you want about China's leaders -- they are scoring huge points in Asia. China is producing rapid growth in a region that used to rely on Japan as its economic anchor. It also has been on a charm offensive to allay fears that its cheap labor and military ambitions are reasons for concern.

Charm Offensive

While this latter point is highly debatable, what's not is that China is winning the public-relations war in Asia. That could be seen during Premier Wen Jiabao's trip to Japan earlier this month, when he stressed China's desire for better relations between the two nations.

The upshot of China's growth and its charm offensive is that its economy is now more important to Asians than Japan's, even if Japan's is far bigger. Increasingly, investors are reading from the same script.

Within Asia, the international community continues to reference the universe of stocks it deals with as ``Asia ex- Japan.'' Mark Matthews, Singapore-based chief Asia strategist at Merrill Lynch & Co., wonders if it's time to start referring to ``Asia ex-China.''

``Our predilection is that the term `Asia ex-Japan' is now dated and irrelevant,'' Matthews wrote in an April 24 note to clients. ``Ask yourself this question: When was the last time you looked at the Nikkei or the Topix for direction? Really, today, the Asian markets are taking their cues from China.''

China Versus Japan

It's a good point, and one officials in Tokyo aren't considering urgently enough. Traveling around Asia, one senses little interest in Japan's recovery from 15 years of negligible growth. Japan is far too big to be irrelevant, and yet traders in Hong Kong, London and New York now react less to Japan's economic or stock trends than to China's.

The U.S. economy is far bigger and its health matters more to Asia. Even so, China has skillfully used the last six years to win more friends in Asia than officials in Washington realize. Distracted by its war on terror and invasion of Iraq, the Bush White House paid little attention to the world's fastest-growing region. That neglect served China well.

That's not to say it's wise for Asia to embrace China as the new economic or political power just yet. It's a developing economy with conflicting needs to slow growth to avoid inflation, and to expand rapidly to create jobs. It needs to figure out how it can build a market economy while controlling the Internet and limiting free expression.

Beating the System

China also must beat the system, so to speak. No industrializing nation has avoided major financial problems. The combination of untold numbers of bad loans, stock bubbles, limited transparency and worsening pollution should concern investors.

It should worry Abe and Bush, meanwhile, that a country that censors Yahoo and Google, limits human rights and supports dodgy African regimes like Sudan's to get its hands on energy supplies appears to be building more trust in Asia than Japan or the U.S. has been able to do.

It's food for thought as Abe meets with Bush this week. One can only hope both leaders digest it.

(William Pesek is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.)

To contact the writer of this column: William Pesek in Tokyo at wpesek@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: April 24, 2007 11:00 EDT
Bloomberg.com: Opinion

An example how China operates.

Blademaster · 04-25-2007, 19:27 PM

Soft power, that's all it is. "Power flows from the barrel of a gun" and guess what? US still possess the biggest bad ass gun of all: the USN. The only way that can change is if the US economy tanks like the Great Depression but nobody with a sane mind and money to protect would want that to happen.

There's a saying: If you owe tens of thousand of dollars to a bank, the bank owns your @ss. If you owe tens of millions of dollars to a bank, you own the bank's @ss.

US owes trillions of dollars to millions of lenders around the world. Result: USA owns the world in many ways.

xrough · 04-25-2007, 20:18 PM

We could not deny the fact that US still holds the title of the biggest economy of the world and it has really a lot of money and most countries of the world used to count on US for a lot of matters and that I think should be preserve..

ArmchairGeneral · 04-25-2007, 21:09 PM

"You fool! You fell victim to one of the classic blunders. The most famous is "Never get involved in a land war in Asia." But only slightly less well known is this: "Never go in against a Sicilian when death is on the line!"

Sorry, but I couldn't help myself.

Ray · 04-26-2007, 13:44 PM

Armchair,

While your quotes may have some significance (though I know not who said so and where and why), so long as China remains a Communist nation, non Communist nations will always vector towards the US with its warts and all.

Communism or rather the ethos of Communism wherein it is a dictatorship in a proletariat hugging garb is an anathema to the ethos of most countries of Asia. Further, the hegemonic aspirations also deters any empathy.

The US has a whole lot of Asian migrants. These people when they come home bring in the US influence. Thus, as the years go by, the people are understanding the US in a more appreciative light. Of course, local issues will still cloud this appreciation, but it is much better than ever before.

This is indeed a good start and will be very positive an input, as I see it, for US Foreign Relations vis a vis Asiatic countries.

Take the issue of George Bush. The usual idea of George Bush, as seen on the TV, is a very aggressive, but sincere in his views (even if one does not empathise with the views) and a very angry man! But today I saw on TV, a "hang loose" Bush at the Anti Malaria meet, having a go at the African drums and sincerely and genuinely doing a modern dance almost like Michael Jackson's Moonwalk! I felt real good that Bush was showing his true self that he knows how to enjoy and has no hang ups to enjoy the delights of the hoi polloi! That would have done the US image a whole lot of good and endeared Bush to many or at least create a doubt in many a mind that what one sees of Bush on the TV may not be the sole attitude of Bush and instead that he is a man of many facets and not all are aggressive!

Sorry for rambling.

aprilfleur · 04-26-2007, 18:03 PM

China has kept itself strong over the years of its close door policy and is now slowly coming up and opening up markets...it is a very good strategy actually especially when it comes to understanding the Asian politics and economy...China's development would be an inspiration to neighboring Asian nations...

though China may have been perceived as belligerent before, it is still drawing a lot of attention and interests now because it is giving more opportunities for expanding markets like big economies of Japan, US, and Europe...and China is also seen as a stepping stone for developing countries for export products....

in the end, China is in the winning edge in terms of its strategic location, its land area and resources, and large manpower...and it is also very competitive in the markets now with its China Mobile ranked on top5 companies (from CNN report 25Apr2007) and as forecast, it might also go global and become a global preference soon...

from a cultural standpoint, China is able to preserve its identity as it keeps to move forward and adapt to current political and economic trends...this is a very strong point that attracts Asian countries while foreign countries look after investments in China and with Chinese companies...

Ray · 04-26-2007, 22:06 PM

China's disadvantage is that it is on one side (facing the Pacific) and does not have free access to the waterways and sealanes or central position to influence Asia and the Middle East.

Middle East is possibly the prime strategic location geographically since it is in a position to influence Europe, Asia as also Africa. It is the most centrally located. However, apart from oil, there is very little.

Thus, the control of the Middle East, not only because of oil, becomes a crux of all geostrategy.

ned kelly · 03-01-2008, 20:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blademaster

Soft power, that's all it is. "Power flows from the barrel of a gun" and guess what? US still possess the biggest bad ass gun of all: the USN. The only way that can change is if the US economy tanks like the Great Depression but nobody with a sane mind and money to protect would want that to happen.

There's a saying: If you owe tens of thousand of dollars to a bank, the bank owns your @ss. If you owe tens of millions of dollars to a bank, you own the bank's @ss.

US owes trillions of dollars to millions of lenders around the world. Result: USA owns the world in many ways.

I would disagree, I am currently reading Chalmer Johnson's final book in the Blowback trilogy ( he wrote in 2000 that US policies overseas would have "blowback" effect on/in the US, obviously extremely prescient with 9/11 happening ) and he states further that the US cannot continue to borrow etc and eventually creditors will begin to park funds elsewhere, call in loans, causing massive upheaval in the US economy.
that's why quite you see currently the Euro and other currencies appreciating heavily. Even the little Aussie dollar has gone from $1 Aud = $0.52 US Cents to $1 Aud to $0.93 US Cents and its still climbing. This is all part of a switching out of the US as the premier place for investment and the dollar as the standard currency of the world.

04-25-2007, 20:18 PM	#4 (permalink)
xrough *Senior Contributor* Join Date: 01-08-07 Location: Manila Posts: 926 Country:	We could not deny the fact that US still holds the title of the biggest economy of the world and it has really a lot of money and most countries of the world used to count on US for a lot of matters and that I think should be preserve.. __________________

04-25-2007, 21:09 PM	#5 (permalink)
ArmchairGeneral Devil's Advocate *Senior Contributor* Join Date: 05-03-06 Location: The boonies of NC, USA. Posts: 2,883 Country:	"You fool! You fell victim to one of the classic blunders. The most famous is "Never get involved in a land war in Asia." But only slightly less well known is this: "Never go in against a Sicilian when death is on the line!" Sorry, but I couldn't help myself. __________________ "Apocalyptic thought is curiously pleasurable." -Theodore Dalrymple Last edited by ArmchairGeneral : 04-25-2007 at 21:11 PM.

04-26-2007, 13:44 PM	#6 (permalink)
Ray Postmaster General *Military Professional* Join Date: 08-20-03 Posts: 28,291 Country:	Armchair, While your quotes may have some significance (though I know not who said so and where and why), so long as China remains a Communist nation, non Communist nations will always vector towards the US with its warts and all. Communism or rather the ethos of Communism wherein it is a dictatorship in a proletariat hugging garb is an anathema to the ethos of most countries of Asia. Further, the hegemonic aspirations also deters any empathy. The US has a whole lot of Asian migrants. These people when they come home bring in the US influence. Thus, as the years go by, the people are understanding the US in a more appreciative light. Of course, local issues will still cloud this appreciation, but it is much better than ever before. This is indeed a good start and will be very positive an input, as I see it, for US Foreign Relations vis a vis Asiatic countries. Take the issue of George Bush. The usual idea of George Bush, as seen on the TV, is a very aggressive, but sincere in his views (even if one does not empathise with the views) and a very angry man! But today I saw on TV, a "hang loose" Bush at the Anti Malaria meet, having a go at the African drums and sincerely and genuinely doing a modern dance almost like Michael Jackson's Moonwalk! I felt real good that Bush was showing his true self that he knows how to enjoy and has no hang ups to enjoy the delights of the hoi polloi! That would have done the US image a whole lot of good and endeared Bush to many or at least create a doubt in many a mind that what one sees of Bush on the TV may not be the sole attitude of Bush and instead that he is a man of many facets and not all are aggressive! Sorry for rambling. Last edited by Ray : 04-26-2007 at 14:11 PM.

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04-25-2007, 19:27 PM	#3 (permalink)
Blademaster Military Enthusiast *Senior Contributor* Join Date: 08-15-03 Posts: 3,268	Soft power, that's all it is. "Power flows from the barrel of a gun" and guess what? US still possess the biggest bad ass gun of all: the USN. The only way that can change is if the US economy tanks like the Great Depression but nobody with a sane mind and money to protect would want that to happen. There's a saying: If you owe tens of thousand of dollars to a bank, the bank owns your @ss. If you owe tens of millions of dollars to a bank, you own the bank's @ss. US owes trillions of dollars to millions of lenders around the world. Result: USA owns the world in many ways.

04-26-2007, 18:03 PM	#7 (permalink)
aprilfleur New Member Join Date: 09-24-06 Posts: 23	China has kept itself strong over the years of its close door policy and is now slowly coming up and opening up markets...it is a very good strategy actually especially when it comes to understanding the Asian politics and economy...China's development would be an inspiration to neighboring Asian nations... though China may have been perceived as belligerent before, it is still drawing a lot of attention and interests now because it is giving more opportunities for expanding markets like big economies of Japan, US, and Europe...and China is also seen as a stepping stone for developing countries for export products.... in the end, China is in the winning edge in terms of its strategic location, its land area and resources, and large manpower...and it is also very competitive in the markets now with its China Mobile ranked on top5 companies (from CNN report 25Apr2007) and as forecast, it might also go global and become a global preference soon... from a cultural standpoint, China is able to preserve its identity as it keeps to move forward and adapt to current political and economic trends...this is a very strong point that attracts Asian countries while foreign countries look after investments in China and with Chinese companies...

04-26-2007, 22:06 PM	#8 (permalink)
Ray Postmaster General *Military Professional* Join Date: 08-20-03 Posts: 28,291 Country:	China's disadvantage is that it is on one side (facing the Pacific) and does not have free access to the waterways and sealanes or central position to influence Asia and the Middle East. Middle East is possibly the prime strategic location geographically since it is in a position to influence Europe, Asia as also Africa. It is the most centrally located. However, apart from oil, there is very little. Thus, the control of the Middle East, not only because of oil, becomes a crux of all geostrategy.

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