Thread: Walker's World: India's nuke deal falters

Originally Posted by texasjohn

I would agree there. The US pretty much spells out the line the NSG is going to take.

There appears to be a lot of suspicion about the deal. I will put this down to paranoia inherent in the national culture ( perhaps).

Here is an example (unrelated) but I hope I make my point. The last time we flew to India ( my wife's first trip there), on the Bombay -Bangalore leg one of the announcements was " no photography allowed in Indian airspace". I was a little dissapointed, cuz I wanted to take some real cool pics of the pretty scenery. I could have gone to Google Earth and got the same pics ( with better resolution) than through my digital poking through the window of an airplane!! huh? what is India scared off?? it's own shadow?

Thats not paranoaia but security. Many of Indias military airports now share space with civilian airports which are right beside them, because short sighted Govts tried to save money by combining both. As you land at Lohegaon (Pune), you see Sukhois! As you land at Bangalore, you see HALs lineup. In Mumbai, RAW a/c and IAF ELINT birds are visible- whose s/n are now on the net, even thanks to amateur photography. While sat photos can show overall layout, actual photos can provide key details.

Originally Posted by Archer

Thats not paranoaia but security. Many of Indias military airports now share space with civilian airports which are right beside them, because short sighted Govts tried to save money by combining both. As you land at Lohegaon (Pune), you see Sukhois! As you land at Bangalore, you see HALs lineup. In Mumbai, RAW a/c and IAF ELINT birds are visible- whose s/n are now on the net, even thanks to amateur photography. While sat photos can show overall layout, actual photos can provide key details.

And there were talks for converting Begumpet Airport in Hyd into a vast commercial zone by shifting the Airport to outskirts and merging it with the upcoming international airport. Unlike most other airports, Begumpet is in heart of the city.

Air Force put its foot down, they kept coming up with creative ideas like "we want to set up an Air Force training facility/Engineering college/hospital etc .

Originally Posted by Archer

India is a developing country which will spend vast sums on a network of reactors dependent on supplies from abroad for fuel.

I think we are already doing it, our newly built civilian reactors are already dependant on foreign fuel.

We run afoul of the US, have tests etc- the supplies will be cut. Its a
damocles sword.

Thats true and thats the only negative side I see to this deal.

Ayengar says plus the record of the US in trying to suborn any scientific/intell officer whom they can get their hands upon, as and when they feel the need to.

Think about this, with or without the deal, US will always try to poach our guys. Although I agree that we are giving a red carpet for the US to have legitimate contacts with our guys, I'm not sure whether this can be our primary reason to shoot the deal.
We need energy and new technology. Either we can spend our own money and brains and re-invent the wheel or we can use COTS technology from US, Russia, France. Remember the US will try to block any nuclear related sale to India in all the major platforms. I'm not sure even Russia would back us up.

evaluate more options in renewable energy sources, spend more time and money on having rural india meet its own energy needs from available resources (as long as it is not coal/wood) rather than spend all our bank on nuclear energy alone.

Energy is politics in India and I dont think our netas have enough foresight on this issue. Nuclear energy is clean and almost cheap. Other than few pockets in the NE most of our renewable energy respources are already tapped and with the growing industrialization we need electricity and we need it fast. Nuclear energy is very attractive on all these counts.

Kill it for now, resuscitate it later when India is in a stronger negotiating position, and less can go wrong.

But for how long and what until then?

Originally Posted by Archer

Thats not paranoaia but security. Many of Indias military airports now share space with civilian airports which are right beside them, because short sighted Govts tried to save money by combining both. As you land at Lohegaon (Pune), you see Sukhois! As you land at Bangalore, you see HALs lineup. In Mumbai, RAW a/c and IAF ELINT birds are visible- whose s/n are now on the net, even thanks to amateur photography. While sat photos can show overall layout, actual photos can provide key details.

Archer bud,

here is my take on that. If you fly into the DFW area you will be within a stone's throw from the Naval Air Station (F-14s till recently), Carswell Air Force base, (B-52s till recently after the cold war) ...etc.

The location of these bases are not top secret!

This is true all over the US. There are only a few hundred around.

What sort of National Security is compromised by me taking pictures of the beautiful western Ghats on my flight from Bombay to Bangalore? That's what I mean by paranoia!

Archer bud,

here is my take on that. If you fly into the DFW area you will be within a stone's throw from the Naval Air Station (F-14s till recently), Carswell Air Force base, (B-52s till recently after the cold war) ...etc.

The location of these bases are not top secret!

This is true all over the US. There are only a few hundred around.

But India is not the US- the amount of population in India makes security a nightmare. There are only a handful of bases, and the actual placement of stores, aircraft is often not available via sats. Google earth etc is outdated (thanks to entirely these sec. concerns), so getting on a flight and taking snaps, or whilst on the apron doing the same is a relatively cheap way of getting S/N. If you have S/N, you know the detachments from which squadrons etc. Its a concern.

What sort of National Security is compromised by me taking pictures of the beautiful western Ghats on my flight from Bombay to Bangalore? That's what I mean by paranoia!

This is an unfortunate sideeffect of the above. Ideally, they should just ask the cabin crew to make sure that nobody has cameras open on landing etc, but hey as if thats foolproof.

In a few years time, the civilian airports should be bifurcated from the mil ones, so this issue should (hopefully) go away, but even there there will be issues. Domestic flights might continue to face these restrictions.

But at least here there is some rationale. True paranoaia are all the whimsical maintenance of civil order stuff from the Raj and the 40's being retained today. IIRC you cannot fly kites etc in some places in the north, because it could be used as a means of signalling.

Originally Posted by Jay

I think we are already doing it, our newly built civilian reactors are already dependant on foreign fuel.

Thats true and thats the only negative side I see to this deal.

..when you have two reactors dependent on foreign fuel, you can fill them with local fuel or walk off...when you have a dozen, then you cant walk off..

Think about this, with or without the deal, US will always try to poach our guys. Although I agree that we are giving a red carpet for the US to have legitimate contacts with our guys, I'm not sure whether this can be our primary reason to shoot the deal.
We need energy and new technology. Either we can spend our own money and brains and re-invent the wheel or we can use COTS technology from US, Russia, France. Remember the US will try to block any nuclear related sale to India in all the major platforms. I'm not sure even Russia would back us up.

..but this gives them an insight into our orgs the way they never had..

Energy is politics in India and I dont think our netas have enough foresight on this issue. Nuclear energy is clean and almost cheap. Other than few pockets in the NE most of our renewable energy respources are already tapped and with the growing industrialization we need electricity and we need it fast. Nuclear energy is very attractive on all these counts.

But for how long and what until then?

..i gave the solution previously, by renewable energy, i mean everything from windpower to others...not just hydel...even small scale units can help..