Is the US adopting the right policy against Iran?

**AFriend** · 28 Feb 07,, 08:55

This is my first message in this forum. I would like it to be on the situation in the MEA since this is where I live (as a Lebanese Chritian), since this is where people and soldiers are getting killed every day. This is also where the future of the region and may be the world is beeing written.

Events that shape the future of the area
In every area in the world, there are some events that are more important than others. Events that shape the future. This is from where I will start. I will start from the most important events that took place in the area in the last 100 years. The ones that have impact on our lives today, the ones that will shape the future of the area, and have a big impact on the future of the world. I believe that they are the following:

1- The creation of the state of Israel.
2- The takeover of power in Iran by Khoumainy, and the reappearance of the shia extremism.
3- The reappearence of the sunni extremism through al qaeda and other similar groups.
4- The war in Iraq, and the toppeling of Saddam Huseein Regime.

I have no doubt, that in a hundred years, a historian writing about the MEA will undoubtly start by covering these points.

About Alqaeda and Iran
So is Iran a threat to the world like alqaeda? Is the Shia extremism like the suna one? Are they different? What are the similarities between the sunna extremism and the chia extremism?

Sunna and Chia extremism have too many things in common.
1- Sunna and Chia extremisim both believe that their duty is to spread their religion to the four corners of the world, by any means, including the use of force when required.
2- They both consider the west as an ennemy.
3- They are both waiting for the “Mahdy” who will save them.
4- They both want the destruction of the state of Israel.
5- Using force is a part of their believes.
6- Both use the same methods and the same ways.
7- Both have an unsheaken faith in their believes, and fight till the last drop of blood and are hard to defeat.

In summary, it is safe to say that Sunna and chia extremism have the same goals, use the same ways and are both very dangerous.

So, if they have so much in common what is the difference between them.

- Alqaeda is an organization. Iran is a country.
- Alqaeda can rely on the planning of few people, having limited resources and limited time to react. Iran can rely on the planing of big organizations having much more resources and having as much time as required.
- Iran can use time to its advantage. Time is playing against alqaeda, or at least, alqaeda do not have the time luxury. An argument like let us prepare ourslefs now and build our power so that we will be ready in 10 years is not an argument that alqaeda can use. There is no harm for Iran to wait 10, 20 years even more. The more they wait, the stonger they become and the more their plan is likely to succeed.
- Alqaeda has ennmies only. Iran has Allies, Friends and ennemies.
- Alqaeda has nothing to offer to its allies. Iran can offer money, weapons, traning, safe heaven…
- Alqaeda can only use its military force. Iran has a big army, is a strong country, has a big reserve of petrol and control a strategic area including the hurmoz streight.
- Alqaeda is under troumendous pressure. Iran is not.

About Alqaeda and Iran plans
Politics is about defining targets, putting plans in which you use all your forces (Economical, military…) in order to achieve you targets. the key words here are the following: Targets, plans and strengh. While Iran and alqaeda have the same targets, they do not have the same strengh and therefore have different plans.

The situation in Iraq
Today all the world agrees that Saddam hussein was a big criminal, he commited too many crimes. But I also think that all the world agrees on the following:

Suddam hussein regime was a regime controlled by Sunna, he used to keep the Iraqi Chia away from Iran, and used to keep Iran away from the rest of the arab countries. He used to consider fighting Sunna extremism as a question of death or life for his regime.
Iraq was a kind of wall between Iran and the rest of the world, between Iran and it ambitions, between Iran and the Shia majority of Iraq.

So What are the problems US is facing today in Iraq?
1- Sunna extremism.
2- Iran influence on the Iraqi chia, that is transforming Iraqi chia to a part of Iran.
3- Iran interference in the other countries, and its will to become a regional and nuclear power.

Ironically, if you ask yourself today how to resolve the iraqi problems and what do we need in Iraq, the answer is very easy.
Iraq needs a strong sunni man, with a strong regime, who will fight the sunna terrsorism, and will keep Iraq chia away from the influence of Iran, also who will keep Iran away from its dream of controlling the area. So can we say that today we need a saddam hussein in Iraq? It is clear that Saddam was a criminal, but it is also true that the US and the west still support other criminal in other places in the world.

The great wall of China has fallen

- Iraq was the wall between Iran and it ambitions to take over the region.
- Iraq was the wall between Iran and it ambitions to take control the petrol of the region,
- Iraq was the wall between Iran and it ambitions to export its islamic revolution to the MEA and may be latter in the word.
- Iraq was the wall between Iran and its first step. The first step in the Iranian plan to control the area was control aver Iraq so that it control Iraq’s petrol, and also create a alliance with the chia in Iraq.
- Iraq was the wall between Iran and the arab contries, between Chia and muslims.

Iraq was that great wall. And that wall has just fallen.

The war in Iraq: A dream come true to Iran
Let us imagine for a second that Iran (ahmedinajad and Kahminaii) are given the chance to give orders to the US army in Iraq, what sort of orders would they give?

They will tell them attack falloujah till you take out the last militant. Go after the Sunni insurgents all over iraq. Stay there as much as you like. 1 year, 2 year, 5 years. No problem we can wait. How ever make sure before you leive to distroy the last standing sunni militant. Make sure to train our Chia brothers, give them weapons and money. Train their army. As for you our brothers in Iraq, keep a low profile for now is not the time. The time will come. Learn from what alqaeda did in their fight against the soviets when they took US as their allies.

What is happening today in Iraq, is like the US army is taking its orders from Iran. Every US soldier beeing killed in Iraq is replacing the death of 10 or even 100 Iranian soldiers. Not only US soldiers are getting killed, not only Iraq is beeing given to iraq on a peace of plate, but also Iran is beeing paid for this. The rise in the petrol price which is a result of the instability allowed Iran to finance all its projects.

Are the Iraq Chia real allies to US?
I was amazed to hear a high ranking US general saying the the violence in Iraq has fallen 50% since the start of the new operation in Iraq. The truth is that the Iraqi PM saw it coming, he asked his chia friends like muqtada and other to keep a low profile till that storm passes. There goes the 50%.

One day US will discover that the same way Alqaead was their ally in Afganestan, the chia are their allies in Iraq. One day they will find out that the same way Alqaead turned against them, their chia allies will turn against them in Iraq, and in other places.

Dying for your ennemy
Dying for you country and your beleifs is an honor and the ulitimate courrage.
Dying for nothing is the ultimate stupidity.
Dying for your ennemy is a historical mistake.

As someone who lived throu a war, as someone who fought the same ennemy, as someone who saw soldiers dying, I have all the respect for every soldier beeing killed in Iraq. But the truth is that American policy is a historical mistake.

Conclusion
Without any doubt, US made too many mistakes in the MEA, and especially in Iraq in the last few years. However, what applies to persons, apply also to countries. A weak person is finished after his first mistake. A strong person can commit more that one mistake and survive. Same applies to countries. Without any doubt US is strong enough to surivive even with all the hsitorical mistakes it commited.

US politician working on establishing the US policy in the MEA fall in the following categories:
- Some people do not know about the MEA more that I know about the moon.
- Some other (like baker) are not as smart as they look. Nothing made me laugh more that his recommendations on Iran and Syria.
- Some care about their future career more than they care about the situation. They know that the threat for the world is one that can get materialized in 20, 30 or 50 years. They know that they will not be around by that time, so why care?

One thing is sure. The people drawing the US policy in Iran and Iraq are still commiting more and more mistakes every day. The US, with all its strengh, can not keep on doing mistake after mistake and keep surviving. It is time to stop commiting mistakes, and have a radical change in policy.

**smilingassassin** · 28 Feb 07,, 10:43

A very interesting post AFreind, though I must say I'm at a loss as to how the U.S. is to extracate itself from this conflict. I'm wondering if you, as a inhabitant of the region have a suggestion for that change in policy.

The U.S. is damned if it supports the Sunni's who are flocking to the Al-Q types, the real enemy, and they are damned if they throw suport behind the Shia's thereby alienating themselves from Saudi Arabia and any possible relations with Syria.

**xerxes** · 01 Mar 07,, 05:27