View Poll Results: First country to ditch the Euro?

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  • Germany

    0 0%
  • Italy

    1 10.00%
  • Greece

    8 80.00%
  • Ireland

    0 0%
  • Spain

    0 0%
  • Portugal

    0 0%
  • Finland

    1 10.00%
  • Belgium

    0 0%
  • Netherlands

    0 0%
  • Slovakia

    0 0%
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Thread: First country to leave the Euro?

  1. #1
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    First country to leave the Euro?

    I am going to put the obvious contenders in the list.
    1) Germany
    2) Italy
    3) Greece
    4) Ireland
    5) Spain
    6) Portugal
    7) Finland
    8) Belgium
    9) Netherlands
    10) Slovakia

    Left the others out.

    I am still thinking its between Finland and Ireland. But will choose one sooner or later. You can state your reasons why, how, and other Machiavelian determinants you choose to share. Eagerly awaiting thoughts...
    Originally from Sochi, Russia.

  2. #2
    tankie Military Professional tankie's Avatar
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    Greece


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  3. #3
    In Memoriam Military Professional dave lukins's Avatar
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    At the moment Greece looks favorite to jump ship first.

  4. #4
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    I vote Italy because Greece CAN be bailed out; Italy can't.
    Doktor likes this.

  5. #5

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    Greece

  6. #6
    Senior Contributor Versus's Avatar
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    Well, the countries that are orthodox christan will go first, than the predominantly catholic states will follow on the north-south basis meaning that the southern catholic countries will go first and than the north will follow.
    War is not a situation nor it is a stage, war is a state of mind.

  7. #7
    Senior Contributor Doktor's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Versus View Post
    Well, the countries that are orthodox christan will go first, than the predominantly catholic states will follow on the north-south basis meaning that the southern catholic countries will go first and than the north will follow.
    And the protestants?

    Welcome back Vs.
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  8. #8
    Senior Contributor Versus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Doktor View Post
    And the protestants?

    Welcome back Vs.
    Well pretty much the EU is their project so I don't know, they might make some sort of union for themselves. France is bounding to Germany at the time, but that won't last. This is more than economy, the whole thing was doomed form the start but it was good till it lasted. This is all under the assumption that we will not kill each other in the break up process, though.
    snapper likes this.
    War is not a situation nor it is a stage, war is a state of mind.

  9. #9
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    EUobserver.com / News In Brief / Wilders' party moots return of the guilder
    Wilders' party moots return of the guilder
    Today @ 17:39

    By EUOBSERVER

    Geert Wilders, leader of the hard-right Freedom Party (PVV), has asked "an internationally renowned research agency" to calculate the costs of leaving the euro and reintroducing the guilder. If such a move turns out to be beneficial, he said he wants to hold a referendum on the matter.
    I think that an "unbought" party has a higher likelyhood of leaving Euro than one that is bought.
    Netherlands sort of is unbought since Gert Wilders is a new political force (relatively speaking) than the entrenched Greek leaders and Italians which are either former bankers or own bank interests or are outright former think tank policy pushers of those interests. (In relation to the new Greek "technocrat"...

    http://www.nasdaq.com/aspx/stock-mar...roskeptic-ally
    Notice the following. Netherlands is stable, its a relatively well off country. Them leaving would reduce the subsidization of the Euro. Although they have a budget deficit they are running at trade flow surplus. I do not think the guilder would suffer hyperinflation or collapse if they did it. The currency would be relatively stable and would likely appreciate since they would not have to subsidize the Euro/Euro debt of failed states directly anymore.

    http://euobserver.com/843/114118
    Czechs also have a thought about doing a referendum again. Considering how hard their president didn't want to join and the proposition is from the majority party...
    Last edited by cyppok; 11 Nov 11, at 23:06.
    Originally from Sochi, Russia.

  10. #10
    An t-aimiréal chléthúil Senior Contributor crooks's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cyppok View Post
    EUobserver.com / News In Brief / Wilders' party moots return of the guilder


    I think that an "unbought" party has a higher likelyhood of leaving Euro than one that is bought.
    Netherlands sort of is unbought since Gert Wilders is a new political force (relatively speaking) than the entrenched Greek leaders and Italians which are either former bankers or own bank interests or are outright former think tank policy pushers of those interests. (In relation to the new Greek "technocrat"...

    Dutch Government Pressured By Euroskeptic Ally
    Notice the following. Netherlands is stable, its a relatively well off country. Them leaving would reduce the subsidization of the Euro. Although they have a budget deficit they are running at trade flow surplus. I do not think the guilder would suffer hyperinflation or collapse if they did it. The currency would be relatively stable and would likely appreciate since they would not have to subsidize the Euro/Euro debt of failed states directly anymore.

    EUobserver.com / Political Affairs / Czech PM mulls euro referendum
    Czechs also have a thought about doing a referendum again. Considering how hard their president didn't want to join and the proposition is from the majority party...
    That Wilders ultra-nationalist/borderline nazi party would be in favour of returning to a native currency is not that surprising. They have no power to make such a decision in any case so it's kinda moot.

    On the question itself I don't think one country will get kicked out - if the Euro breaks up it'll probably be a case of 4 or 5 countries getting "left behind" simultaneously.
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  11. #11
    tankie Military Professional tankie's Avatar
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    An afterthought ,,,would now be a good time to buy euro's ??


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    Hungary May Be Pushed to Junk Grade - Bloomberg
    The steps included raising revenue by effectively nationalizing $14 billion of assets held by private-pension funds, levying extraordinary taxes on the banking, energy, retail and telecommunication industries and forcing banks to swallow exchange-rate losses on foreign-currency mortgages.

    To protect the policies from oversight, the Constitutional Court was stripped of its right to rule in most economic issues. An independent Fiscal Council was dismantled and a new one set up dominated by Orban’s allies.
    Hungary For Pensions? | ZeroHedge
    A bit more here. The precedent (Argentina did this before and then stopped sovereign payments) is interesting.
    Originally from Sochi, Russia.

  13. #13
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    None, no matter what your ideology might be. Leaving the euro would have harsh consequences. For greece it is impossible (without defaulting on all of their debt, which is not to desirable either) and for countries with a stable economy (Netherlands) it does not seem to desirable as well, it would at least be a very risky bet on your own new currency to maintain as stable as the euro still is.

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    Would you care to introduce yourself dirk90 in the forum here: http://www.worldaffairsboard.com/wab...on-thread.html

    Just that otherwise our forum admins might think you's a bad 'un...

  15. #15
    BD1
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    Quote Originally Posted by cyppok View Post
    I am still thinking its between Finland and Ireland. But will choose one sooner or later. You can state your reasons why, how, and other Machiavelian determinants you choose to share. Eagerly awaiting thoughts...
    oh dear lord, do you really do some analysis or you just shoot from the hip to feel important?
    and if you do analysis, then i hope not in any proffessional capacity. it´s like reading that thread about butt implants made with cement and superglue....
    Last edited by BD1; 23 Nov 11, at 20:58.
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