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Thread: Shipping news

  1. #1
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    Shipping news

    Dry bulk market
    The story talks about a rally, all I see is the dead cat bounce...
    DryShips Inc.
    Nice chart here that makes the context of the issue to come through.

    SeaNews Turkey - US tells WTO to stop China and India abusing subsidies to boost exports
    Wednesday, 12.Oct.2011
    THE United States has filed a complaint against China and India for its lack of transparency over nearly 250 subsidy programmes, thus failing to meet its obligations under World Trade Organisation accords.

    "Because China and India have failed to meet their obligations, we had to act - as we are entitled to under the WTO rules - and provide the voluminous information we have developed regarding subsidy programmes in these two countries," said US Trade Representative Ron Kirk.

    "The situation was simply intolerable," he said, adding that China has murky trade policies and has yet failed to provide details of at least 200 subsidy programmes since December 2001.

    "China and India are among the largest exporters in the WTO, and it is simply not acceptable that they continue to evade their transparency commitments," he added, reported American Shpper. He said every member is required to submit information on its programmes on a regular basis.

    India only recently filed its first notification in almost 10 years, and even then notified only three of the many subsidy programmes we know to exist, which at last count came in at 50, Mr Kirk said.
    U.S. Containerized Volume Dropped in Q2, The Journal of Commerce Top 40... -- NEWARK, N.J., Sept. 13, 2011 /PRNewswire/ --

    P.S. if someone has good stories with statistics that's relevant please post em I am very tired right now.
    Originally from Sochi, Russia.

  2. #2
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    The reason I post about shipping is that this is in essence the foreboding of the Christmas shopping season in the states since the goods are shipped several months earlier to stock up for the season.

    Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Unprecedented Drop in Port Traffic: A Sobering Omen for Holiday Sales or Should we Listen to Analysts?

    Hypothetical impact of this on China is as follows if 40% of their shipments go to U.S. and they drop by 15% ergo 40*.85=34%
    then we assume that the trade to GDP ratio is 50% ergo every 1 point drop in trade/gdp ratio is half a point drop in GDP. So a 6% drop to the U.S. would be around -3% drag on GDP growth unless it was countered by domestic consumption. You can assume similar trends with EU(around 25-30%*) and then figure most of Chinese growth is either imaginary in this point or simply present value calculus of housing investment which is starting to deflate.

    *
    http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2006/september/tradoc_113366.pdf
    Originally from Sochi, Russia.

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