Will the economy get better or worse?

**Ironduke** · 08 Apr 09,, 10:05

With the markets showing some signs of stabilization, do you think a bottom has been reached, the worst has passed, and the economic situation will get better, or do you think a bottom has yet to be reached and the the worst is yet to come? Have you experienced or seen anything that points in either direction?

**Ironduke** · 08 Apr 09,, 10:18

Well, at my job slaving at UPS for my tuition reimbursement, I noticed a precipitous decline in volume in the first two months of the year compared to the same period last year. Peak season, the month preceding December, also saw a large decrease in volume compared to the year before, perhaps off by 20,000 to 30,000 per night. Now volume seems to be picking up to more normal levels. Whereas post-peak volume seemed to be off by about 20,000, it has closed to a decrease of 10,000 (100-110,000 total volume this time last year). There have been no new hires so far this year, but beginning next week the Minneapolis hub will be hiring 3 new people every other week.

**RadioPatrol** · 08 Apr 09,, 10:30

Originally Posted by Ironduke

With the markets showing some signs of stabilization, do you think a bottom has been reached, the worst has passed, and the economic situation will get better, or do you think a bottom has yet to be reached and the the worst is yet to come? Have you experienced or seen anything that points in either direction?

Fortunately I live outside DC (well maybe unfortunately being this close to the DC Circvs) .... anyway this area is supposed to be fairly recession proof, of course no one talks depression proof ..... but with the high numbers working Federal Jobs .... sure construction gets hurt as the housing crisis continues to unfold, and we saw 4 dollar a gallon gas last summer .... so until the FED starts laying off employees .... we should be ok, sure things will get tight ... MD will probably have lay offs as the high tax rates force business barely holding on under and less revenue come in

I work at a local Theme Park, that is betting people cannot afford to travel, will still want a diversion come ride roller coasters

but in the end I think it is going to be worse for folks where there are not large concentrations of Federal employees

on a side not an Ex Gf of mine says Northrup Grumman took over a big plant in Johnstown and is Hiring .... I guess Murtha brought home some more pork

**sumob** · 08 Apr 09,, 10:42

Looks like we are bottoming out of this mess, but wouldn't be surprised if there are some hiccups on the way.

In India the Textile Industry looks to be recovering. Almost all the mills are operating at nearly 100% capacity and a quite a few are releasing order for new machines. But a lot of demand is from the domestic market and not much from the export side.

**nizawa** · 08 Apr 09,, 10:50

Neither y nor n. So I could not vote, my problem is unable to find the direction. Let's
hope for the best and prepare for the worst.

**~~JamilMaqsood~~** · 08 Apr 09,, 10:56

Hi All,
When the world community would open its eyes towards this facts that Saudi money has been used to trained and use religious dogmatism in Pakistan. That when the nexus of secret agencies of Pakistan and private militia like Taliban's and so many others would be break down or intercepted?
regards
Jamil Maqsood.

**Ironduke** · 08 Apr 09,, 10:57

Originally Posted by RadioPatrol

but in the end I think it is going to be worse for folks where there are not large concentrations of Federal employees

I'm moving into D.C. in June myself. From where I'm sitting, it seems like the promised land of milk and honey.

**BadKharma** · 08 Apr 09,, 12:04

I do not think we have seen the worst yet. Unfortunately I think the age old adage it will get worse before it gets better fits the situation. And also of course we have not felt the effects yet of the huge spending packages that congress keeps voting through. Even once the economy begins to improve we will be burdened with that for a long time to come.

**captain** · 08 Apr 09,, 14:16

I would prefer to be optimistic but there are a couple of indicators in this part of the world that do not inspire confidence.

For the december quarter figures recently released, wharehouse withdrawls had sharply declined, as had retail sales.
Inventory levels are continuing to fall, albiet only slowly but new stock orders are at very low ebb.
As the data is at least one quarter old, the next reporting round will tell the story.

Shipping movements are at a virtual standstill around Australia and I am told that the port of Singapore anchorage has literally hundreds of cargo boats lying idle. Not Good!

If this situation is the same in the main European and American ports then things may well get worse as negative sentimennt begins to feed and breed on itself.

Cheers, I hope!

**The Indian** · 08 Apr 09,, 14:45

In my opinion the worst phase of recession is already passed ....

Financial institutions like Citi bank have shown profit in first quarter of 2009,
There is rise in demand for automobiles, And $1 trillion package for world economy at G20 will definitely bring confidence in market and that is what is needed at this time...

Once market gains confidence , investors will put money and economy will be stabilized .....

And the growth engines of world economy in recovery phase will be China and India...

But it will take time to see boom ...recovery is already started...

**tankie** · 08 Apr 09,, 15:11

Gordon Brown's recession strategy is said to be 'collapsing'

Poll shows UK recession to be much deeper

The Prime Minister indicated the need for further cash injections to help kickstart growth had to be set against the need to balance the books in future years.

The Tories claimed that Mr Brown's remarks were the latest indication that their opposition to borrowing Britain's way out of the downturn had been proved correct.

In an interview with The Independent, Mr Brown said: "It's not just what we do to give real help now, but about setting a path for the future as well. We always take into account what we need and what is best in future for the fiscal position."

Mr Brown emphasised that environmentally-friendly measures would be a major focus of the Budget. They included plans to extend the use of electric cars, with trials for electric cars expected to begin next year in two or three cities.

His comments came after Bank of England Governor Mervyn King warned that the country could not afford another big stimulus package to boost the economy.

Chancellor Alistair Darling is expected to set out in this month's Budget how the economy's deterioration has been worse than he anticipated in last autumn's Pre-Budget Report.

There are suggestions that, with public borrowing significantly overshooting projections, he may be forced to herald tax raises when he makes his statement on April 22.

Shadow chancellor George Osborne warned that the "politics of prosperity is giving way to the politics of austerity".

In a speech to the Royal Society for the encouragement of Arts, Manufactures and Commerce (RSA), Mr Osborne said the Tories had consistently cautioned against increased borrowing.

**jonnm** · 08 Apr 09,, 15:27

I think the situation is mixed and therefore hard to predict. In Canada our problem is that almost 2/3 of our exports are to the US so even though there was no bank meltdown we have to deal with lower commodity prices and since we have about 20% of the North American auto industry we have to deal with that crash. This month housing starts and retail sales are up a little but realistically nothing is going to happen until the American economy gets going and there I expect a long leveling and then a slow recovery that will not meet previous expansion values. Alternately Canada can develop some other markets but that is usually a slow process. One of my clients has been working on Chinese exports for the last 8 years and while it is providing some income it is slow. For the last ten years there has been a significant portion of the US economy in fact almost all its increases, was built on false housing market and money manipulation based on borrowing. This isn't coming back and the US in previous years had significantly deindustrialized. When you consider that 20% of US jobs involved money handling up from 4% 30 years ago you can see a long slow recovery. In addition the US does not have its historic advantages in regards to being self sufficient in most resources and is steadily becoming more dependenet on foriegn suppliers. On the other hand the US is a dynamic society and still has many deep reserves plus a cache.

In my job I deal with about 40 small businesses and there the situation is all over the place. A winery I visited yesterday is preparing to deal with a tourist slowdown, a toolmaking facility is moving along steadily but slowly with work on the Volt tooling and a Geothermal company is going gang busters. Personally I am busier than I have erver been by far and considering ways to lay off some of my work.

**captain** · 08 Apr 09,, 15:39

Originally Posted by tankie

Gordon Brown's recession strategy is said to be 'collapsing'

Poll shows UK recession to be much deeper

The Prime Minister indicated the need for further cash injections to help kickstart growth had to be set against the need to balance the books in future years.

The Tories claimed that Mr Brown's remarks were the latest indication that their opposition to borrowing Britain's way out of the downturn had been proved correct.

In an interview with The Independent, Mr Brown said: "It's not just what we do to give real help now, but about setting a path for the future as well. We always take into account what we need and what is best in future for the fiscal position."

Mr Brown emphasised that environmentally-friendly measures would be a major focus of the Budget. They included plans to extend the use of electric cars, with trials for electric cars expected to begin next year in two or three cities.

His comments came after Bank of England Governor Mervyn King warned that the country could not afford another big stimulus package to boost the economy.

Chancellor Alistair Darling is expected to set out in this month's Budget how the economy's deterioration has been worse than he anticipated in last autumn's Pre-Budget Report.

There are suggestions that, with public borrowing significantly overshooting projections, he may be forced to herald tax raises when he makes his statement on April 22.

Shadow chancellor George Osborne warned that the "politics of prosperity is giving way to the politics of austerity".

In a speech to the Royal Society for the encouragement of Arts, Manufactures and Commerce (RSA), Mr Osborne said the Tories had consistently cautioned against increased borrowing.

True to previous form, the socialist left are always very keen to send us into cripling debt and given the current world economy, it may be a debt that our kids will still be paying off when we are old smelly bones.

Emphasising the "enviromental electric cars" issue is just a typical smoke and mirror, ill considered, huge W&nk!

Wether or not we recover will be in a very large part due to the confidence or not of the great unwashed.
If they are not prepared to spend and instead hord any govt largess, national bankruptcy is a real possibility.

The household can not keep spending money it has not got! Simple.

The Bank of England Governor is right and the same warning applies to all economies!

Cheers.

**dave lukins** · 08 Apr 09,, 16:54

The UK is pessimistic as usual

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7989061.stm

**JAD_333** · 08 Apr 09,, 17:56

Originally Posted by Ironduke

Well, at my job slaving at UPS for my tuition reimbursement, I noticed a precipitous decline in volume in the first two months of the year compared to the same period last year.of 10,000 (100-110,000 total volume this time last year).

The gal who rents my house owns a Fedex home delivery route and is down from 50-60 deliveries a day to just over 30, and she says it's falling.

IMHO, the economy is somewhat stabalized, or to put it another way, measures are in place to stabalize it. That has caused consumer confidence to rise somewhat, and lower interest rates have caused to real estate market to bounce a tad. But overall, I don't see any real improvement in the economy and expect it will continue to degrade, albeit slower than before, for some time.

The recession has lasted longer than any since the Great Depression, more than 17 months. Normally, we face recessions without the kind of weakness we are now experiencing in the global banking system. Let's see what comes after banks unload their toxic assets. But there is also the problem of huge consumer credit card debt hanging over the economy. Recent prosperity was fueled by liberal consumer credit. If it's not as readily available as before, demand will probably stay flat for some time. We're all worn out from buying, buying... and we're still cutting back. Maybe by end of year, we'll see an uptick in GDP, but don't count on it.

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