Norman Borlaug on the Food Crisis

**Shek** · 05 Jun 08, 03:41

Marginal Revolution: Norman Borlaug on the Food Crisis

Here is Norman Borlaug, father of the green revolution, from about a decade ago but highly relevant today:

Yields can still be increased by 50-100% in much of the Indian sub-Continent, Latin America, the former USSR and Eastern Europe, and by 100-200% in much of sub-Saharan Africa, providing political stability is maintained, bureaucracies that destroys entrepreneurial initiative are reigned in, and their researchers and extension workers devote more energy to putting science and technology to work at the farm level....

I now say that the world has the technology - either available or well-advanced in the research pipeline - to feed a population of 10 billion people. The more pertinent question today is whether farmers and ranchers will be permitted to use this new technology. Extremists in the environmental movement from the rich nations seem to be doing everything they can to stop scientific progress in its tracks. Small, but vociferous and highly effective and well-funded, anti-science and technology groups are slowing the application of new technology, whether it be developed from biotechnology or more conventional methods of agricultural science. I am particularly alarmed by those who seek to deny small-scale farmers of the Third World -and especially those in sub-Saharan Africa - access to the improved seeds, fertilizers, and crop protection chemicals that have allowed the affluent nations the luxury of plentiful and inexpensive foodstuffs which, in turn, has accelerated their economic development.

And here is an awesome graph showing how much land has been saved by improved agricultural productivity in the United States.

**gunnut** · 05 Jun 08, 05:22

I have a question (I have a lot of those

):

How have the hippies/environmentalists contributed to the current food crisis?

These people like to eat "organic" food (all food is organic, but that's another topic). Organic food usually have smaller yield than their "inorganic" counter part due to the abandonment of chemical fertilizers and pesticides. If so, then we need more area to feed each person eating this "organic" food. That means less food output for others. Less product means higher prices.

I think it's a disturbing trend that hippies in the western world advocate decreased food productivity for their own perceived benefit.

Personally I believe it's entirely OK to be selfish and wasteful if we are willing to pay the price. I just have a problem with these same hippies telling me that I use too much gasoline and should be restricted.

**astralis** · 05 Jun 08, 07:55

gunnut,

These people like to eat "organic" food (all food is organic, but that's another topic). Organic food usually have smaller yield than their "inorganic" counter part due to the abandonment of chemical fertilizers and pesticides. If so, then we need more area to feed each person eating this "organic" food. That means less food output for others. Less product means higher prices.

I think it's a disturbing trend that hippies in the western world advocate decreased food productivity for their own perceived benefit.

given the huge extent of farm subsidies and political inefficiency, the lower yield of organics represents a fairly small portion of reduced product hitting the market. the organics market is not that big as to effect overall yield.

the high cost of food is connected far more closely to fuel prices and tariffs than anything else IMO.

the funny thing is that i believe organic farming can be viable on a large scale IF allowances can be made for advances in genetic engineering- a position not popular among those buying organics, unfortunately.

i understand their concerns in regards to conventional farming: regular farming has too many hidden costs (lower nutrition, chemical/preservative leaching, environmental costs) for me to be altogether comfortable with it. however, as you say, without some allowance for genetics, the potential beneficial impact of technology is lessened.

**dalem** · 05 Jun 08, 08:18

Originally Posted by gunnut

I have a question (I have a lot of those

):

How have the hippies/environmentalists contributed to the current food crisis?

They smell bad and look ugly so I have to eat more comfort food to feel better.

-dale

**gunnut** · 05 Jun 08, 18:57

You guys are killing me...

But back to farming, doesn't EU (or the EU farm lobby) have this fear or hatred of genetically modified crops? Doesn't that cut down their production?

**Masada** · 05 Jun 08, 19:10

Unfortunately, the poor in sub-Saharan Africa cannot afford the fast-growing, drought-resistant seeds that they need without Microloans and effective NGO intervention, which (not surprisingly) haven't made a real impact in that region yet.

Being caught in a poverty trap sucks.

**Shek** · 05 Jun 08, 19:48

Originally Posted by Masada

Unfortunately, the poor in sub-Saharan Africa cannot afford the fast-growing, drought-resistant seeds that they need without Microloans and effective NGO intervention, which (not surprisingly) haven't made a real impact in that region yet.

Being caught in a poverty trap sucks.

Governance is the bigger issue that precludes growth.

**Masada** · 05 Jun 08, 20:17

Originally Posted by Shek

Governance is the bigger issue that precludes growth.

There are a number of countries in Africa with (semi)stable governments, such as Ethiopia, Nigeria, Niger, Kenya, etc. The problem is primarily cash flow and lack of meaningful foreign aid. NGO's like the Gate's Foundation have already made huge progress because they are results driven, unlike past U.N. efforts.

Don't get me wrong; I agree there are places like Somalia and Congo that are absolutely FUBAR'd, but that conversation is a totally different animal - it only has so much to do with food.

It's a problem that can be solved. It's all economics.

**captain** · 06 Jun 08, 01:57

Originally Posted by Masada

There are a number of countries in Africa with (semi)stable governments, such as Ethiopia, Nigeria, Niger, Kenya, etc. The problem is primarily cash flow and lack of meaningful foreign aid. NGO's like the Gate's Foundation have already made huge progress because they are results driven, unlike past U.N. efforts.

Don't get me wrong; I agree there are places like Somalia and Congo that are absolutely FUBAR'd, but that conversation is a totally different animal - it only has so much to do with food.

It's a problem that can be solved. It's all economics.

Sorry but no! it is not "all economics".

It is about governance and "semi stable" is not good enough.
Along with excellent governance, a plan and vision is also required.

For many decades now the developed world has been asked to continually put their hands in their pockets to help people who are starving because of one disaster or another.
Those disasters are more often than not made exponentially worse because of diasterous governance and are sometimes only as a result of continual disasterous governance.

If the cycle is to be broken, the developed world may have to administer some tough love.

As per the Gates Foundation example above, help and the continuance of help must be tied to pre determined KPI's.
Failure to meet those KPI's means the rest of the world, with absolute certainty, walks away to offer our help to somone else who is more willing to understand and follow the rules.

Cheers.

**Shek** · 06 Jun 08, 05:08

Originally Posted by Masada

There are a number of countries in Africa with (semi)stable governments, such as Ethiopia, Nigeria, Niger, Kenya, etc. The problem is primarily cash flow and lack of meaningful foreign aid. NGO's like the Gate's Foundation have already made huge progress because they are results driven, unlike past U.N. efforts.

Don't get me wrong; I agree there are places like Somalia and Congo that are absolutely FUBAR'd, but that conversation is a totally different animal - it only has so much to do with food.

It's a problem that can be solved. It's all economics.

You mention Nigeria. Nigeria has received $280bn in the past 30 years. Can you tell what Nigeria can show for this aid?

You mention Kenya as needing foreign aid. Will it do any good when their government screws up private enterprise?

The West Can't Save Africa

Kenyan Robert Keter, a former world-class runner, is busy investing the proceeds of the telecom venture CDR, which he co-founded in 2000 and ran profitably until the Kenyan government abruptly shut him down for no apparent reason. Keter was recruited into business by Monique Maddy, a Liberian entrepreneur with a Harvard MBA (who is now offering advice to Google on global anti-poverty programs). CDR was offering customers voice over Internet protocol long before the service was made mainstream by Skype and Vonage. The company did so well during its brief operation that Keter and his U.S.-based partners decided to raise money to help rebuild a school in his home village of Kericho, located in the tea-growing region of the Kenyan highlands. Keter also used part of his earnings to purchase a tea farm, where he employs more than 400 workers.

Sorry, but the problem isn't cash flows. It's government, civil war/coups (government), and too many natural resources (government). Foreign aid hasn't done much in the past 5 decades, so what's the difference now?

**Masada** · 06 Jun 08, 08:06

Originally Posted by Shek

You mention Nigeria. Nigeria has received $280bn in the past 30 years. Can you tell what Nigeria can show for this aid?

You mention Kenya as needing foreign aid. Will it do any good when their government screws up private enterprise?

Sorry, but the problem isn't cash flows. It's government, civil war/coups (government), and too many natural resources (government). Foreign aid hasn't done much in the past 5 decades, so what's the difference now?

Good stuff. I concede the point.

**Shek** · 06 Jun 08, 11:51

Originally Posted by Masada

Good stuff. I concede the point.

Masada,

There are three big economists out there that bracket the field - Jeffrey Sachs, who is pro-foreign aid, William Easterly, who is anti-foreign aid, and Paul Collier, who is in the middle but closer to William Easterly. Anti-foreign aid is a slight misnomer, as Easterly favors aid, but channeled through to entrepreneurs (searchers) who know best how to meet the needs of the population and very small projects instead of through foreign agencies (planners) who have good intentions but fall short on the execution side.

The three recommended books to read are:

The End of Poverty - Sachs
The White Man's Burden - Easterly
The Bottom Billion - Collier

Here's a sample from Easterly of his research; since it's from an econ journal, it is written in a more technical fashion than you'll find in his book: http://www.nyu.edu/fas/institute/dri...terlyJEP03.pdf

Lastly, here are two interviews, one with Easterly, and one with Collier.
Easterly on Growth, Poverty, and Aid, EconTalk Permanent Podcast Link: Library of Economics and Liberty
Collier on the Bottom Billion, EconTalk Permanent Podcast Link: Library of Economics and Liberty

**Masada** · 06 Jun 08, 18:25

Originally Posted by Shek

Masada,

There are three big economists out there that bracket the field - Jeffrey Sachs, who is pro-foreign aid, William Easterly, who is anti-foreign aid, and Paul Collier, who is in the middle but closer to William Easterly. Anti-foreign aid is a slight misnomer, as Easterly favors aid, but channeled through to entrepreneurs (searchers) who know best how to meet the needs of the population and very small projects instead of through foreign agencies (planners) who have good intentions but fall short on the execution side.

The three recommended books to read are:

The End of Poverty - Sachs
The White Man's Burden - Easterly
The Bottom Billion - Collier

Here's a sample from Easterly of his research; since it's from an econ journal, it is written in a more technical fashion than you'll find in his book: http://www.nyu.edu/fas/institute/dri...terlyJEP03.pdf

Lastly, here are two interviews, one with Easterly, and one with Collier.
Easterly on Growth, Poverty, and Aid, EconTalk Permanent Podcast Link: Library of Economics and Liberty
Collier on the Bottom Billion, EconTalk Permanent Podcast Link: Library of Economics and Liberty

I just read Common Wealth, Sach's newest book, which is why I'm interested. I'll definitely read up on that list, but I start bootcamp this friday, so it'll be a while.

Thanks.

**Shek** · 06 Jun 08, 19:20

Originally Posted by Masada

I just read Common Wealth, Sach's newest book, which is why I'm interested. I'll definitely read up on that list, but I start bootcamp this friday, so it'll be a while.

Thanks.

Good luck with boot camp. Where at? Great Lakes?

**Masada** · 06 Jun 08, 19:47

Originally Posted by Shek

Good luck with boot camp. Where at? Great Lakes?

Yeah, it's the only boot camp left. Should be a blast.

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