Thread: IPCC says tackling global warming need not be expensive

PM - IPCC says tackling global warming need not be expensive

IPCC says tackling global warming need not be expensive PRINT FRIENDLY EMAIL STORY
PM - Friday, 4 May , 2007 18:22:00
Reporter: David Mark, Jennifer Macey
MARK COLVIN: There's a glimmer of hope on tackling global warming in a major international report today.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released the third part of its report in Bangkok.

It lays out a range of things the world can do about climate change, and estimates of the effect that they'll have and what they'll cost.

Climate scientists meeting in Bangkok say a global temperature increase of at least two degrees Celsius is now inevitable.

But they've concluded that the cost of tackling global warming need not be great.

On the other hand, those looking for firm prescriptions for governments will be disappointed by the IPCC - the report doesn't contain any recommendations on targets.

David Mark prepared this report, with the help of Jennifer Macey.

DAVID MARK: "Act quickly and act big" - that's the message contained in the third part of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report, released a short time ago in Bangkok.

The first two parts of the report released earlier this year dealt with the science and impacts of climate change.

The report found greenhouse gas emissions rose by 70 per cent between 1970 and 2004. The chief culprit, carbon dioxide, rose by 80 per cent over the same period.

Keeping global warming to two degrees above pre-industrial levels - the report's best case scenario - would mean stabilising greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere at 445 to 490 parts per million. At present, the concentration of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere is around 400 parts per million.

Even limiting global warming to two degrees could mean up to two billion people would suffer water shortages and threaten between 20 and 30 per cent of the world's species.

The good news in the report is that the costs need not be great.

EXCERPT FROM REPORT (voiceover): There is substantial economic potential for the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions from all sectors over the coming decades, sufficient to offset growth of global emissions, or to reduce emissions below current levels.

DAVID MARK: The report found keeping greenhouse gas levels to 550 parts per million - the equivalent of about a three degree temperature increase - would reduce global GDP by between 0.2 and 2.5 per cent.

Stabilising greenhouse gasses at 450 parts per million would cost less than three per cent of GDP.

But the report warns action must begin soon:

EXCERPT FROM REPORT (voiceover): In order to stabilise the concentration of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere, emissions would need to peak and decline thereafter. The lower the stabilisation level, the more quickly this peak and decline would need to occur.

DAVID MARK: That "most stringent scenario", as it's described in the report, would require reductions in greenhouse gas emissions of 50 to 85 per cent of current levels by 2050, and, more importantly, emissions must peak within eight years.

The report suggests that this can and should be done in many ways and across various industrial sectors, such as reducing fossil fuel subsidies, mandating fuel economy and taxing transport, investing in public transport, creating more efficient buildings, reducing deforestation and putting a cost on carbon.

The report says:

EXCERPT FROM REPORT (voiceover): Policies that provide a real or implicit price of carbon could create incentives for producers and consumers to significantly invest in lower greenhouse gas products, technologies and processes.

DAVID MARK: Carbon prices should rise from between $20 to $80 per tonne by 2030 to stabilise gas emissions at 550 parts per million. Those costs will be kept down if carbon taxes are used to promote low carbon technologies.

The other side of the equation is reducing emissions through the use of renewable energy sources:

EXCERPT FROM REPORT (voiceover): Renewable energy generally has a positive effect on energy security, employment and on air quality. Renewable energy can have a 30 to 35 per cent share of the total electricity supply in 2030, at carbon prices up to $US 50 a tonne for CO2.

DAVID MARK: But the report has something for everyone, suggesting nuclear power can have an 18 per cent share of the total electricity at the same carbon price.

The jury's still out on the value of carbon capture and storage. The report says the contribution of carbon geosequestration, as it's known, will depend on technical developments.

Carbon emissions could be reduced, and with a saving, by making new and existing buildings more energy efficient.

The report places the onus on governments to act, suggesting:

EXCERPT FROM REPORT (voiceover): Government support is important for effective technology development, innovation and deployment.

DAVID MARK: And the report says governments have a crucial role to provide policy frameworks to achieve change. Without government support, the report says, it may be difficult to achieve emissions at a significant scale.

MARK COLVIN: David Mark produced that report with Jennifer Macey.