Lord Carlin, a brilliant mind indeed.Originally Posted by M21Sniper
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One of the basic ingedients of leftist KooL AiD scaremongering is that we're "killing the earth".
Like George Carlin says, we couldn't kill the earth if we tried. Us maybe(extremely doubtful, but eh), the Earth?
Um, no.
LOL...
Lord Carlin, a brilliant mind indeed.Originally Posted by M21Sniper
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"Only Nixon can go to China." -- Old Vulcan proverb.
Originally Posted by Sea Toby
Hi Sea Toby,
Here are some details surrouding the issue you have put forth to put it into perspective:
1. most of the natural gas generating plants, AFAIK are of the peak shaving variety and are not running all of the time;
2. from starting the process to finish, construction of a coal fired power plant takes about ten years whereas a natural gas peaker can be had in about five years and I suspect you would be lucky to get a fission plant inside of 20;
3. for every new oil discovery, there are four new natural gas discoveries;
4. while most of the oil appears to be concentrated in areas of questionable stability (e.g. Venezuela, the Middle East, the Caspian Basin, etc.), natural gas is much more geographically distributed which helps insure a steady supply;
5. a well developed gas infrastructure including LNG and GTL capabilities has other benefits as natural gas is a vital feedstock to a variety of industries outside of the power business;
6. natural gas is here now and the problem is now so why not exploit it handsomely to move away from oil we import from spurious actors so we can buy time to move onto the Next Big Thing?;
7. (if I am reading the numbers correctly) in the time it took oil to triple in price, the price of U308 doubled on the spot market (up almost a third from January of this year, as a matter of fact). The spot price of UF6 went up 5% in July. Nuclear fuel is not getting cheaper at the current demand level;
8. in the time it took oil to triple in price, the cost of natural gas has come down by half. Granted it is undesriably high still as the electricity generation from natural gas trend was predicated on $3.00 to $4.00 per million BTUs. However, one tanker of LNG has more heating content than one tanker of crude oil so it is still a bargain at the price.
9. There may be far, far more gas available above current generous reserves when one examines methane hydrates in subsea ice and other interesting places.
While I share the general sentiment of your statement and definitely favor moving away from oil, the theoretically ideal nuclear option is far down the pike and expanded coal use is not exactly instantaneous nor neccessarily desirable.
In my mind, the way out is as follows (loosley, of course):
1. Energy reform starts at the light switch. We need immediate and widespread conservation and increases in efficiency. These can be accomplished today, not 5, 10 or 20 years down the road;
2. Radically expanded natural gas efforts including LNG imports and GTL plants to offset oil imports (might as well develop a coal-to-liquids capability paralell to the GTL capability as a hedge given the vast US coal reserves);
3. Start working very hard on a robust nuclear industry centering around new ideas and technologies such as pebble bed and gas cooled reactors as well as upgrades to the grid including super conducting hardware as it becomes available and practical
Regards,
William
Pharoh was pimp but now he is dead. What are you going to do today?
Carlin makes some insightful statements, and I don't doubt his ability to understand climate modeling, but his credentials are a little thin. And as for the models there is a reason that the majority of credible scientists are backing the global warming hypothesis. The age of the earth (5 billion-ish years) has nothing to do with how well we can model current trends. The error bars on prediction are completely knowable and are a function of the dataset. The folks who are running the modeling projects (at NOAA GFDL and elsewhere) are completely aware of all of the possible error issue and would not be using the models to investigate climte 50 years for now if they did not feel it was statistically plausible. Error bars for prediction outside the domain of a dataset grow rapidly as you try to go further and further. For a time dependent data series and on that parameter if you try to predict into the future the error bars grow as a function of the standard error. This does not mean that forecasting is impossible or useless.Originally Posted by M21Sniper
Peak oil oddly is linked to global warming, because our unsustainable use of oil is fueling the sudden changes in global climate. There was actually a hearing by the US senate on Dec 7th, 2005 on Peak Oil, the Senate Subcommittee on Energy and Commerce, Joe Barton's chair. The Legislators in no way diminished the testimony of Roscoe Bartlett and Congressman Udall, Robert Hirsch, Kjell Alaklett (ASPO) or Robert Esser (CERA). All of them basically stated the same thing, current sources are expected to be in decline by 5% per year at least to 2015. That leaves a shortfall of 40 mbpd by 2012 according to CERA. Where do you expect these shortfalls to be made up? Only Esser (CERA) of the six panel members suggested they could be and would be.
Peak oil is real and needs to be taken seriously. Global Warming is real and needs to be taken seriously.
Last edited by Silence Dogood; 14 Aug 06, at 07:36.
Nice post William. I'm not sure where you are located but natural gas in the States was at Record levels last winter and is expected to be at record levels again this winter. There is some interesting discussion on natural gas at peakoil.net also. The situation as I understand it is that in the mid-term it is just like peak oil. In the short term, maybe we can gain a little space on oil by finding places to switch to gas.Originally Posted by Swift Sword
I also has though that fission would be a good way to go, because once the feul is spent you cannot use it for nuclear weapons only dirty bombs. But yeah U238 is scarce and we cannot hope to use fission as a major substitute.
Great point on the time issue, Yeahs it's all about
t = k[1]$M = k[2]P(megawatts), the constants k[i] are conversion factors
At a base level once high energy density oil is gone it gets so much harder to make everything we want in industrial societies. But I do imagine we will see coal to liquids (the technology is already there, Hitler used it.), and we will see alot of other things we wish we hadn't.
Last edited by Silence Dogood; 14 Aug 06, at 07:38.
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