Thread: US will help South Asia get electricity from Central Asia

Originally Posted by Asim Aquil

Tequila!

No, have stopped drinking for the last two years!

It is the damned Jinns for sure and released by you know who!

Here's your answer:

Friday, April 28, 2006 E-Mail this article to a friend Printer Friendly Version

Iran-Pakistan gas line ‘paper-deal’ on the cards


Islamabad: A team of senior officials of Iran’s Oil and Gas Export Corporation are scheduled to arrive in Islamabad today for talks with counterpart Pakistani officials in the oil and gas sector with a view to clinching a bilateral memorandum of understanding or agreement to go ahead and build the Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline.

Highly placed sources in Islamabad have told Daily Times that the Iranian team is being led by Iran’s deputy oil minister and is armed with instructions from Iranian President Ahmedinijad not to return home without such an agreement. It is understood that Mr Ahmedinijad and President Pervez Musharraf have discussed this idea on the phone and decided to do something concrete to dispel rumours that the pipeline project has been abandoned under American pressure.

One source added that the Indian prime minister’s statement last week that the IPI project hadn’t been abandoned was a counter move by New Delhi on the “great-game chessboard” to secure India’s national interests in the face of rising opposition in the US to the India-US deal on nuclear energy. The US has countered by proposing an electricity grid from the Central Asian states of Kazakstan and Tajikistan to Afghanistan, Pakistan and India to nullify the need of Iranian gas. staff report
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default...8-4-2006_pg1_7

What the US doesn't understand is the way the energy needs are growing Pak will need everything!

Iranian oil, New hydro-powerplants, New nuclear powerplants, and energy from central asia.

Instead of a powergrid, we should get the US to secure an oil pipeline to Pakistan as they originally planned to in the deal signed with former PM Jamali.

I can't remember which article was it that said that Pak energy needs are growing by 10% a year. Words of Shaukat Aziz, IIRC.

Originally Posted by Ray

Maybe Neo can answer that.

He is the inhouse economist!

Actually Samir is the real economist, he'll be returing to WAB soon.

Cheapest option is to produce electricity locally, price is related to the source. Hydro potential remains high and the cheapest option for Pakistan.
The first of four dams initiated by Mushy, The Bhasha-Diamir Dam will produce 4500 MW electricity by 2015, a single CHASNUPP produces only 320MW!

IPI is still too expansive as Iran is asking for very high price and India is objecting the transit fee demanded by Pakistan.
Electricity from CAR will cross several borders, making it way too expansive befor it gets into India via atleast 3 countries.

Pakistan's current oil consuption is 365.000 bpd, we produce 88.000 locally rest is imported.
Natural gas production equals 21.000.000 tons of oil, while the growth is 12-15% p.a.

We need to diversify our sources.

From the Pakistan Economy - Daily Update thread:

Energy consumption in S Asia increasing

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Tuesday, April 25, 2006

LAHORE: Energy consumption in South Asia has increased to 52 percent between 1993 and 2003, said a report of the Energy Information Administration (EIA).

The EIA energy statistics include only “commercial” energy sources and not animal waste, wood, or other biomass, which account for more than half of South Asia’s total final energy consumption.

In 2003, South Asia accounted for approximately four percent of world commercial energy consumption, up from 3.1 percent in 1993. Despite this growth in energy demand, South Asia continues to average among the lowest levels of per capita energy consumption in the world, but among the highest levels of energy consumption per unit of GDP.

Discounting “non-commercial” sources of energy, including animal waste, wood, and other biomass, South Asia's commercial energy mix in 2003 was 44 percent coal, 35 percent petroleum, 13 percent natural gas, six percent hydroelectricity, one percent nuclear and 0.3 percent “other.” There are significant variations within the region.

Bangladesh’s energy mix, for example, is dominated by natural gas (67 percent in 2003), whereas India relies heavily on coal (52 percent in 2003). Sri Lanka and the Maldives are overwhelmingly dependent on petroleum (84 percent and 100 percent, respectively). Pakistan is diversified among petroleum (38 percent), natural gas (41 percent), and hydroelectricity (14 percent).

The Himalayan countries of Bhutan and Nepal had the highest shares of hydroelectric power in their energy consumption mix at 82 percent and 37 percent, respectively, in 2003.

South Asian nations are faced with rapidly rising energy demand coupled with increasingly insufficient energy supplies. Most of South Asia is already grappling with energy shortfalls, typically in the form of recurrent, costly and widespread electricity outages.

Because of the economic and political ramifications arising from such shortfalls, improving the supply of energy, particularly the supply of electricity, is an important priority of national and local governments. The countries of South Asia are looking to diversify their traditional energy supplies, promote additional foreign investment for energy infrastructure development, improve energy efficiency, reform and privatize energy sectors and promote and expand regional energy trade and investment.

Another implication of rising energy demand in South Asia is its impact on the region’s level of carbon dioxide emissions.

As of 2003, South Asia accounted for 4.7 percent of global carbon dioxide emissions. With the demand for coal in India projected to increase rapidly in the coming years (from 431 million short tons (Mmst) in 2003 to 544 million short tons (Mmst) in 2010) and the recent introduction of coal into the fuel mix of other countries in the region, a significant increase in emissions in the future is expected.

The South Asian region is notable for its large and rapidly growing population (more than one-fifth of the world total). However, despite rapid economic growth during the 1990s, the nations in the region have among the lowest per capita incomes in the world.

On the surface, I like this idea. It sounds good for everyone, the producers get access to markets, the markets get access to the producers. It helps the economies of the Central Asian states and helps ease the energy needs of Pakistan and India. Powerlines are cheap, relatively speaking.

It offers an alternative to investments in Iran's infrastructure, which would inevitably spark US sanctions against the investors.

No doubt the US would subsidize such a project.

The US has never sanctioned other countries investing in Iran? China and Russia both import oil from Iran.

When you say subsidize, you mean, the US would pay the tab? The difference in costs? To hurt Iran it'll hurt itself?

It's very unlikely and till when will this go on?

I think the offer from the US here so far is just that it'll do the groundwork, lay the wires, provide protection thru Afghanistan, etc.

#2 Will it still meet our energy needs at the same cost?

Iran has often sold Pakistan energy for its new western projects. If the costs are not good why would either Pakistan or India go for anything other than the Iranian oil?