Jay

ofcourse DF-31 TUBES exist..we even saw the pictures, Those big empty ones the question was about the number of missiles deployed and the war head design....

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A grain of wheat eclipsed the sun of Adam !!

-{SpoonmaN}-

I'm no military expert. I seem to be the only civilian on this forum who looks at the Defense threads and will admit that.

However, I have been working over a lot of info, (Largely from this board) and I think I can speak up on this issue. The PLA has no long range power projection capabilities beyond the use of it's somewhat limited ICBM force. Therefore, it is not comparable with the US Military. Simple fact. The PLA probably does have the ability to crush Taiwan now, but they know the risks involved, and the massive cost of such an invasion would make it pointless right now. The PRC won't attack Taiwan for the forseeable future unless the Republic does something stupid like declare independence. If this was to happen, I'd imagine the communist party (communists in name only Oneman) would have to bow to the enormous pressure they would be under from the large nationalist faction in the PRC and invade. If they did, it's likely they could hold off the USN for a little while, perhaps enough time to land enough troops there to complete the invasion and dig in on Taiwan, perhaps not. One deciding factor in a very near future conflict could be the nature of the US presense in Iraq, as this could continue to tie down a lot of troops for a while. If the PLA could complete the invasion of Taiwan in time, then it is unlikely the US could drive them out without a massive war effort, which probably wouldn't be on the cards. In this case the war would probably settle into a stalemate in which the USN eliminates the PLAN and the USAF carries out airstrikes and the like to damage the Chinese economy and force some concessions out of them until a negotiated peace came along. Nuclear weapons wouldn't be used because I doubt any leader would be stupid enough to destroy their own country in the process of ordering a nuclear realese. At least I sure hope so. In the end, the PLAAF and PLAN are really only disposable forces to slow down the US enough to allow the PLA to seize Taiwan.

And oneman, you need to accept that the PLA just isn't that great right now. They're certainly better than they used to be, and I'm sure they will be much better than they are now in 10 years, but the only job they're certainly good for is defending the PRC and keeping the peace within. It's not a swipe at China or Chinese people to say that your military isn't as great as you might want. Seriously I'm Australian and I can admit the ADF is understrength and lacking in some very basic equipment like ammunition. And we have some New Zealanders on this forum, and they don't even have an Air Force anymore, so imagine how they feel. And I should make the point that having lots of nukes is nothing to be proud of. Anyway, I think everyone needs to relax and stop with the name calling and ego stroking.

-{SpoonmaN}-

And yeah pictures from military parades don't mean a whole lot.

Officer of Engineers

Got this straight from Canadian intel guys.

The DF-31 is NOT deployed. The intel guys never saw new missiles in the silos and no new barracks were built. However, there were sightings of new TELs at locations where it would have been impossible for them reach. Hence, the reservations of they MIGHT be deployed


... until this picture came along, it's a baloon.

Attached Images

df-31.JPG (14.8 KB, 268 views)

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Chimo

Blademaster

Damn!! A very effective decoy. Forces the US to waste its precious missiles and bombs and resources searching for this.

Maybe the PLA lets you see only what they want you to see.

Officer of Engineers

Maybe but that does not negate what we cannot see and we cannot see new barracks, new silos, new housing, new sewers, new hardened shelters ...

-{SpoonmaN}-

Still the ballons would be a nice cheap decoy. Out of curiosity what do the real military types think of my theory on a USA-PRC conflict?

bull

Blademaster,

It is the other way around.

It can only see what PLA has,not what it doesnt have!!!

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What's the difference between people who pray in church and those who pray in casinos?
The ones in the casinos are serious.

-{SpoonmaN}-

They were the Ba'ath party's territorial militia units. They put up a much tougher fight than anyone expected against the US Military, which made them famous around the Middle East.

Jay

LOL Spoonman...he's got the answer in his signature

hammer

Damn, its a neat decoy. Even the Iraqi's did something like this in the GWI right? those were tank decoys. so did the serbians IIRC.

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Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie!'...till you can find a rock. ;)

-{SpoonmaN}-

Man don't I look cool now. Anyway the inflatable decoys thing was a big part of Allied deception strategy before operation Overlord, where they managed to create an entire fictional army out of plywood buildings and blow-up vehicles. I guess if someone could pull that off then it wouldn't be a stretch to fool your enemy into thinking you have a few extra missiles.

Ironduke

thought i might bump this.

tomexe

What specifically is the difficulty with the Dong Feng 31 that is slowing it down?

Is it not a Chinese copy of the Russian SS-25 small ICBM?

Is it the motor, the warhead or something else that is slowing deployment? Or just politics?

Are the Chinese not concerned with the possibility that the US bomber force, particularly the B-2 and B-1s could destroy most of their ICBM fleet with conventional weapons right now? With the expansion of the US ABM batteries, even it it requires 3 rounds for the ABM system to get one kill, they cant afford to lose many missiles in their holes and still maintain credability. They really need to get the DF-31 in the field...

Isnt the prolonged development itself a drawback to a credable defense?

If there is a DF-31 brigade. Do they have working missiles to fire from those launchers? And how many launchers is a brigade? And how many are still decoys and/or photoshop and how many are real?

YellowFever

1) Adobe Photoshop

2) Corel Draw

3) Adobe illustrator


Kidding kidding...

Colonel, one hypothetical question:

What would happen if Taiwn were to declare indepent country status in the near future?

WILL the Chinese attack and WILL the US help Taiwan?

I don't think China can invade (putting boots on the ground) Taiwan with their current military makeup.

Or am I wrong?

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