Blademaster

Not if India is developing a BMD. If India can produce Akash missiles that perform the role of a BMD at 500 - 1000 a year which is doable then in 3 to 6years, China's missile advantage is negated.

Producing Akash missiles is a lot easier than producing Agni missiles.

Officer of Engineers

Two very different issues here, Hitesh. The Chinese ain't worry about BMDs doing mushroom clouds over Beijing.

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Chimo

zraver

Colonel, I agree with you for now, but as I look long term...

BMD doesn't really enter the equation until the agni III is road/rail mobile and deployed in numbers. If India builds say 50 such systems and then creates a credible BMD net then the balance of power shifts becuase now India has a credible first strike capability if it can create an answer for China's SLBM's. This would be a strategic disaster for the world IMHO.

Because without a doubt India will generate an answer to the Chinese SLBM system. India has to as part of its normal naval program given Chinese naval submarine building or it ceeds its own waters to China. The combination of mobile missiles, BMD, and modern ASW capable navy kicks the legs out from under any Chinese nuclear posture and forces an arms race on the Chinese. Germany did this to the UK and lost its empire.

Two important facts come into play. First, China feels no need to honor its legal commitments, this has been proven time and again in just about every field of international cooperation. Second, we judge people by what we ourselves would do. Since China does not feel a legalist bent to stick to the letter of the law or honor pledges they will not credit India with abiding by its own NFU policy. They will (rightly) assume India is building a first strike capability. They are right, even if that is not India's intent, that is the result.

However, if India restrains itself and does not build a BMD system, or leaves it fixed in the east to ward off Pakistan and thus leaves China with a credible nuclear threat it is actually safer for India. China has more money so a forced arms race is a losing bet for India. Leaving China its ultimate insurance against India helps ward off the arms race.

Officer of Engineers

Z,

You are ignoring the fact that the Chinese have already extensive experience in developing an ABM system, albeit initially, they have followed the Russian model - to use a nuke to shoot down a nuke.

However, this does not change the fact that they've already done a lion share of the leg work vis-a-vi the Indians although still in its infancy when compared to the other N5. Their ability to shoot down a satellite is a decade ahead of the Indians.

There is no evidence that the Indians would be able to deploy an ABM system ahead of the Chinese.

zraver

The Agni-III IIRC has 1-3 maneuvering RV's. China doesn't. This is one area where India has a clear lead. But its not about the Chinese ABM capability. It's about India developing a triad of capability that builds on its already superior air combat power that makes China's ability to deliver an effective nuclear strike questionable at best.

Officer of Engineers

Actually, they do. Admiral Machon is on record as stating the Chinese are working on BMs that can target a carrier.

As for MIRVs, the Chinese had that technology for over 20 years. No one knows why they have not MIRVed their rockets yet.

I am still skeptical the Indians have a warhead that small. I don't doubt that they've worked out a model but until they tested one, I have low confidence.

mweber24

Maybe I missed something, but why in the world would China ever lauch a catastropic nuclear attack on India? What could they possibly hope to gain by becoming an international pariah? Deterrence is only necessary when there is some sort of credible threat backed by intent. I can see the need to deter Pakistan, they have an unfortunate vulnerability to despotism and Islamic extremism despite the current popularly elected government, but why the paranoia about China?

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The SWO

Officer of Engineers

Commander,

One of the more popular Indian internet warrior strategies is if Islamabad nukes Dehli, India would nuke Beijing. This is response to that assumption ... and you know what assume is.

mweber24

Wow, what a bad idea.

Cactus

So you put the effort into detailing out a BS response to a BS scenario ... and here I was mentally listing out the obvious fallacies of assuming China-India arms race being run in isolation of others' concerns and various levels of spook-out thresholds It is a good one Colonel

Cactus

Nobody hopes to gain anything by becoming "pariah"; gods, people, demons etc become "pariah" by hoping to gain certain things. Indians are intimately familiar with how these things work, being themselves once one of the strongest practitioners of such things. One of the most cited ways gods/people/demons/etc become "pariah" is by harming or exploiting the weak or the innocent; a greater moral power then steps in to make the offender a "pariah" and the world accepts. First and foremost Indians don't want to be the offended party: Neither be weak nor naive. Rest is beyond their control.

zraver

Becuase it fears India is about to do so. They'd rather go back to being an international pariah state than get nuked. When you have nukes pointed at you, you assume they are real as is the intent behind them. The PRC so far has not needed to worry about India. India had a NFU policy and no credible means of a surviving a Chinese response even if they did strike first. This capability however is rapidly evolving for India. If the Agni-III does indeed end up road/rail mobile, China cannot assume it can take out India's second strike capability. This is good for India because it lessons the chance of Chinese nuclear blackmail. However India is doing two other things that when combined with the new missiles go past building a robust second strike capability and straight to an offensive nuclear posture.

India's plans to modernize its navy and its quest for nuclear powered attack subs in particular are a direct threat to China's second strike capability by giving India at least the potential for taking out China's second strike SLBM capability. By itself China can probably live with this as there are other means to deliver a second strike. But when you add the third Indian ambition you create a recipe that China has to respond to.

If India goes forward and develops a capable ABM system and the means to deploy it opposite China then all of a sudden the only thing protecting China from an Indian first strike is India's NFU policy. And that policy isn't worth the paper its printed on in the eyes of the CCP. They will judge India's intent by what they would do.

China cannot let its neighbor build that capability unmatched. To do so invites nuclear blackmail or even attack. How China will respond over the next decade is anyones guess. But it will be an arms race that will drag in Russia, US, Japan, and South Korea. The only way to head the arms race off is for India to not pursue any type of an ABM system that poses a threat to Chinese missiles. As long as India leaves China a MAD option all is good.

if India goes ahead with an ABM system then China has to build more missiles and finally deploy newer warheads. With the bigger economy, more fissile material and large cash reserves this is bad for India. Its a race India can't win, but it forces the US and Russia to counter China and might force Japan and or South Korea to go nuclear.

Nukes are not battleships, and a nuclear Jutland over Asia could easily burn down the entire planet. So if India does seek a real ABM capability, what is it really after? I don't think an arms race by itself is enough to get the NPT changed to allow India into the "club' of NWS under the treaty. She obviously not after security since ABM makes the situation more dangerous for the region. What then is the goal? I wish India had a more unified political will. It would make forcasting so much easier on me.

For example if India had a unfied political will and direction I would be willing to bet that long term the capability is aimed at getting a p5 seat and from there NWS status. After all one day the UK and France will have to give up thier seats for a single EU seat and the replacement P5 member list is rather small. Brazil and India are the only real contenders. Japan would like to be, but China will never allow it. They won't like India either, but if bringing India in as a P5 member brings with it an arms treaty....

However I don't think India is looking 20-30 years down the road. Does anyone else have any idea why India is building an offensive nuclear force? Because even if that is not the intent- that is the fact.

Jay

India still looks China as a threat and its vice versa from the other side. India doesnt need to match China piece by piece, all it needs is a second strike capability (possibly triad) which it will get in 10-20 years time.

Even if it results in an indirect arms race, which India will loose for all the obvious reasons, unlike China, India does not have any other credible security threats (other than Pakistan). For China there is US, Taiwan, India and Japan. So in the longer run China has to counter all these nations, one way or other. India might also get antsy with the US later, but at this point all seems to be well between them.

Also, regardless of whether India is starting an arms race or not, China is going to build up to counter US, so it doesn't matter, one way or other they are already in a race.

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A grain of wheat eclipsed the sun of Adam !!

zraver

building an ABM system turns a needed second strike capability into a potent first strike ability.

So far China has stuck to conventional arms. India might be making it a nuclear arms race.

China has seen no reason o counter the US nuclear edge. Between the ABM system, B-2, stealthed cruise missiles, and SLBM's it was pointless and so a dead issue. However India might force China's hand o the issue.

Jay

I still dont think ABM makes much sense in Indo-Pak or Indo-China war. There is simply not time left to react.
True, but if China uses India as an excuse to do a nuclear buildup, the US and Japan aint gonna watch it