Officer of Engineers

Z,

I don't see how Indian ABMs would be a challenge for Chinese SLBMs. Since the Chinese can choose their launch sites at will and at the last minute, Indian ABMs would be physically out of orientation to provide intercept. The short reaction time would make it near impossible for the Indians to re-orient their interceptors.

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Chimo

Cactus

Huh, you want India to come in and "take back" the nuclear weaponry and missile designs from Pakistan (it did not provide the the first place)? Read things in the context that they are written.

Cactus

Didn't mean to imply that you spoke for the Chinese. You put up their perspective on one point and I put up a counter-perspective from the Indian point (from whose policy makers I don't speak either).

Yes, I am sure the Paks fill a very prized role in the Chinese confrontational strategy vis a vis India. I just reminded you of the real penalty Chinese haven't faced... way beyond the annoyance of dealing the Pakistanis.

I am aware of the existence of the S-300 batteries, but not of its deployment.

Officer of Engineers

6 regiments. All in the Northeast, facing Taiwan ... and North Korea.

Officer of Engineers

I don't see how this could have been avoided. Again, Chinese nukes were Moscow centric. They were facing war in the 70s and the real prospects of the Soviet Army smashing their way to Lop Nor did not end until the late 1980s. India exploded her 1st bomb in 1974. The balance of power (never in the Chinese favour in the 1st place) was begining to sink China's strategic posture.

They needed a counter-balance to check India while they deal with Moscow. Unless they were willing to put Pakistan under their already too small of a nuclear umbrella, the Indians could wipe out Pakistan while maintaining a sizeable army on China's southern front.

zraver

I am not blaming the Indians. I fully support India as a NWS. I think they are more responsible with them than the PRC, Russia, France, or Pakistan. However switching from a defensive nuclear posture given by the Agni-III to an offensive posture with the adition of ABM and naval upgrades is a different story. No one is forcing India to build an offensive capability.

Ravi12,

That is exaclty what I am arguing. That vs China India wants China to have the ability to deliver its currents nuclear weapons, and the ability to do the same to China. This keeps both sides honest. Pakistan is a different story for obvious reasons. But as long as Chinese nukes can reach Delhi, China wont sweat an anti-Pakistan ABM to much. Pawns are after all meant to be sacrificed.

Colonel,

Would that not depend on what India develops of buys? Unless China wants to develop new missiles the launch points inside China are pretty limited if China wants to use the Earths rotation to help with cross shots.

Officer of Engineers

Z,

How about from within the Indian Ocean? Indian ASW ain't that good to stop a Chinese missile boat from sitting outside of India's coast line.

Jay

Thats true. But IOR is a huge area and from there Indian missiles (possible SLBM's, a big future If) can reach China's population center's as China cannot control the vast swathes of Blue water in the near and mid future. So its not all doom and gloom for India.

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A grain of wheat eclipsed the sun of Adam !!

Officer of Engineers

Jay,

The problem with Indians launching from the Indian Ocean is that they pretty well would follow the same trajectories as their land based cousins. Hence, no real need for Chinese interceptors to re-orient themselves.

However, the opposite is true for Chinese boats launching from the Indian Ocean. Indian interceptors would be facing north, not south.

Jay

Only if India considers it as a race. With out raising an alarm both India and China are building their bombs, testing their designs. So when India tests the 5000 km version of Agni pretty much it advertises it can hit China anywhere as it wants. All we need is a significant number of them in deployment. So in my opinion its not an arms race at all. When China starts building up, the US, Russia and Japan will answer it in kind. I believe, China will think twice to do a build up directly wrt India.

Seriously, I still think ABM's will not work in our case. Even if you have 100's of interceptor missiles deployed in the border. There are plenty more areas where India can launch its missiles from. So India doesnt need the capability to shoot X missiles. All it needs is the capability to fire (second strike) Y number of missiles on China and thats exactly what they are working on currently. ABM is just a bonus.

China just cannot have an India centric buildup. No one will believe China, the same that we saw happen in the last 40 years. The reason why China, India and Pakistan went nuclear.

Cactus

True. The Soviets are no more, the PRC "won" that one by default on coattail. What about the next 16 years?

Officer of Engineers

Don't ask me for more than 5 years. The last time I did a plus 10 year projection, I was expecting to burn in a mushroom cloud or my daughter would still continue to see the wall long after she has kids.

For the next 5 years, it would be status quo.

Cactus

No, sir, I meant the 16 years since 1991 (16 intervening years since demise of the erstwhile Soviet army).

zraver

OoE, thats why I addressed the naval build up. India is aggressively looking for nuclear attacks subs and failing that will either go upgraded Kilo's or German Dolphins they have to given the Chinese building spree. The problem of course is that if India gets some nuke attack boats they might have the Chinese SSBN's in their sights. It is some thing China has to assume will be the case.

Quite possibly, or Japan can sit it out under the assumption that even the PRC would not nuke a non-NWS state as long as the US and PRC were at peace as required by the NPT. Russia will answer in kind, she has to. But that does not mean India gets off any lighter.

Officer of Engineers

I am not understanding you. Could you clarify?