Voluntary servitude disguised as a "nuclear deal" - Page 4

zraver · 05-13-2008, 21:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jay

I still dont think ABM makes much sense in Indo-Pak or Indo-China war. There is simply not time left to react.

it depends on the set up. if the interceptor missiles are ready to go you don't need much time.

Quote:

True, but if China uses India as an excuse to do a nuclear buildup, the US and Japan aint gonna watch it

true, but it will be a race started by India.

Cactus · 05-13-2008, 22:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zraver

However I don't think India is looking 20-30 years down the road. Does anyone else have any idea why India is building an offensive nuclear force? Because even if that is not the intent- that is the fact.

Before I try to answer it, here are two questions:

1. You see a man with a heavy shield. Do you see him in the prima facie defensive mode? Or do you see an offensive mode, as he can easily clobber someone to death with it?

2. You see a man with a saber. Do you see him in the prima facie offensive mode? Or do you see a defensive mode, as he can quite probably limit himself to parrying away offensive blows?

zraver · 05-13-2008, 22:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cactus

Before I try to answer it, here are two questions:

1. You see a man with a heavy shield. Do you see him in the prima facie defensive mode? Or do you see an offensive mode, as he can easily clobber someone to death with it?

2. You see a man with a saber. Do you see him in the prima facie offensive mode? Or do you see a defensive mode, as he can quite probably limit himself to parrying away offensive blows?

bad analogy. India is not trying to get just one, but both. Not only that but it moralizes. The only view that matters is what the capability means to other countries. Words and policies are just platitudes.

Cactus · 05-13-2008, 22:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zraver

bad analogy. India is not trying to get just one, but both. Not only that but it moralizes. The only view that matters is what the capability means to other countries. Words and policies are just platitudes.

Yes, it was a bad analogy: It had to be a gladis, not a saber. But you are jumping ahead...

gamercube · 05-13-2008, 22:14 PM

Here's something interesting:

The Hindu News Update Service

Quote:

Agni III could have 5,000 km range: Russian General

Moscow (PTI): A top Russian General on Wednesday said that India's Agni-III ballistic missile, which has a range of 3,000 kilometres, could strike targets upto 5,000 kilometres, similar to that of Soviet designed SS-20 nuclear missile.

The Russian General's remarks came as India on Wednesday successfully test-fired its surface-to-surface nuclear capable Agni-III missile for the second time giving the country a capability to hit targets as far as deep inside China.

"The parameters of the missile disclosed by the Indian defence officials... provide solid ground for presuming that Agni-III is similar to the Soviet Army's first twin stage solid fuel propelled BRSD "Pioneer" (NATO codename SS-20) missile with a range of upto five thousand kilometres," Maj Gen Yevgeny Borodunov was quoted as saying by ITAR-TASS.

Gen Borodunov was formerly commander of the 33rd missile division of the Strategic Missile Force, which was the first unit to induct 'Pioneer' missiles in the Soviet Army. He also noted that Agni-III is the first ballistic missile tested on the trajectory crossing the equator.

zraver · 05-13-2008, 22:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cactus

Yes, it was a bad analogy: It had to be a gladis, not a saber. But you are jumping ahead...

No I am not jumping ahead. Russia and the US both retargeted thier missiles in the 1990's. But they did not stand down from the nuclear perch. When some one has the capability to wipe you out, you act as if they will if you give them the chance.

This is exactly why India needs a solid second strike capability to keep China honest. But at the same time adding a robust ABM system flips the tables and makes India the possible agressor state.

Cactus · 05-13-2008, 23:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zraver

No I am not jumping ahead. Russia and the US both retargeted thier missiles in the 1990's. But they did not stand down from the nuclear perch. When some one has the capability to wipe you out, you act as if they will if you give them the chance.

This is exactly why India needs a solid second strike capability to keep China honest. But at the same time adding a robust ABM system flips the tables and makes India the possible agressor state.

Oh yes, you are! Here I am still trying to point to a possible reason explanation for - "Does anyone else have any idea why India is building an offensive nuclear force?" - while you are already dismissing the as-yet-unenunciated point as being "just platitudes"!

Guess why I re-chose a term for my analogy - gladis? Indian shield-and-gladis combo may spook the Chinese into an arms race with the United States, Russia and Japan; Indian adding javelins to their arsenal will spook at least the United States into a reaction - and it won't be a race.

Of course, if you are more comfortable with the BS Indian internet warrior straturbation that OOE pointed out - here would be its "moralizing" counterpart that the late Zhang Fei would have put up: China will nuke India regardless of who nukes China; India is the only country in the world that can fully change the demographics of the land that was "China" in such a post-apocalyptic scenario... something Chinese will never stand for.

zraver · 05-13-2008, 23:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cactus

Oh yes, you are! Here I am still trying to point to a possible reason explanation for - "Does anyone else have any idea why India is building an offensive nuclear force?" - while you are already dismissing the as-yet-unenunciated point as being "just platitudes"!

Guess why I re-chose a term for my analogy - gladis? Indian shield-and-gladis combo may spook the Chinese into an arms race with the United States, Russia and Japan; Indian adding javelins to their arsenal will spook at least the United States into a reaction - and it won't be a race.

A Sino-Indian arms race is not good for India. You can se all the bad anaolgies you want but that wont change the underlying economics of the matter. if India can shoot down X PRC missiles, then the PRC needs x+T with t being the minimum number of warheads needed to hit the target list. China already has the Fissile material to do this. More importantly however if China does this and builds its own ABM system then India is right back where it started- open to Chinese blackmail.

While both of these situations will impact the US and its Asian allies, in the end it will impact India the most.

I am curious what reaction you think the US will have.

Quote:

Of course, if you are more comfortable with the BS Indian internet warrior straturbation that OOE pointed out - here would be its "moralizing" counterpart that the late Zhang Fei would have put up: China will nuke India regardless of who nukes China; India is the only country in the world that can fully change the demographics of the land that was "China" in such a post-apocalyptic scenario... something Chinese will never stand for.

let me know when you climax so you can rejoin the conversation. In a nuclear show down there wont be enough Indians left to fill the void. Those not killed outright by the blast are going to be the rural poor and once the infrastructure is gone most of them will suffer a die off to make the cities look like a mercy killing. Same goes for China BTW, the Uzbecks,Tazkicks Mongols, and cockroaches will inherit Asia not India.

Blademaster · 05-14-2008, 03:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zraver

it depends on the set up. if the interceptor missiles are ready to go you don't need much time.

true, but it will be a race started by India.

No, China started the race when it invited Indian Foreign Minister to Beijing and then detonated a nuclear test when he was there.

Why are you blaming it on the Indians? The Chinese tested before the Indians and not only that, but gave nuclear designs to Pakistan and you make it somehow that was India's fault. Well fu-ck that sh!t. I ain't accepting that cockamie bullsh!t of an excuse.

ravi12 · 05-14-2008, 04:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zraver

A Sino-Indian arms race is not good for India. You can se all the bad anaolgies you want but that wont change the underlying economics of the matter. if India can shoot down X PRC missiles, then the PRC needs x+T with t being the minimum number of warheads needed to hit the target list. China already has the Fissile material to do this. More importantly however if China does this and builds its own ABM system then India is right back where it started- open to Chinese blackmail.

While both of these situations will impact the US and its Asian allies, in the end it will impact India the most.

I am curious what reaction you think the US will have.

let me know when you climax so you can rejoin the conversation. In a nuclear show down there wont be enough Indians left to fill the void. Those not killed outright by the blast are going to be the rural poor and once the infrastructure is gone most of them will suffer a die off to make the cities look like a mercy killing. Same goes for China BTW, the Uzbecks,Tazkicks Mongols, and cockroaches will inherit Asia not India.

Indian ABM started as a capability against Pakistan's posture and their president's and army chief's sabre rattling.

It is to call Pakistan's bluff, we need that. Then China enters the picture - you can say the law of unintended consequences. Against china we need the triad, first and not the ABM.

and yes, when you have a country which has just defeated you (1962) and goes on to build nukes (1964), do you wish that country to sit idle? It was chinas bomb which forced us to make ours.

It was not until chinas bomb, that we started taking building the bomb seriously.

Then as BM said, it goes on to give its bomb and delivery mechanisms to Pakistan, blame the perpetrators for starting and continuing the race. If china hadnt given the nukes to Pakistan, would we have started the ABM?? Probably yes, but not when it was done.

Cactus · 05-14-2008, 06:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zraver

Quote:

... here would be its "moralizing" counterpart that the late Zhang Fei would have put up: China will nuke India regardless of who nukes China;

... In a nuclear show down there wont be enough Indians left to fill the void.
... BTW, the Uzbecks,Tazkicks Mongols, and cockroaches will inherit Asia not India.

Critical comprehension, anyone?

**Officer of Engineers** · 05-14-2008, 06:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blademaster

Why are you blaming it on the Indians? The Chinese tested before the Indians and not only that, but gave nuclear designs to Pakistan and you make it somehow that was India's fault. Well fu-ck that sh!t. I ain't accepting that cockamie bullsh!t of an excuse.

Law of Unitended Consequences.

The Chinese bomb was definetely not India centric. It was anti-West and anti-Soviet centric. So, you cannot blame China for starting that race. However, the issue of Pakistan is much more muddied.

Do recall that India was considered part of the Soviet camp and especially part of the Soviet Eastern strategy. Whether true or not does not change the perception. In 1974, India exploded her bomb and in defacto confronting China with a two front nuclear situation. Since China relies on Pakistan to check India while she concentrated her tactical attentions up north, then unless China shifts some nukes south (given her limited numbers and technological and technical inferiority vis-a-vi Moscow would make it unlikely), then the only way to check India's nukes were to use Pakistan nukes.

The AQ Khan got dreams of grandeur and bastardized that Chinese dream into a nightmare.

Cactus · 05-14-2008, 06:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers

Law of Unitended Consequences.

The Chinese bomb was definetely not India centric. It was anti-West and anti-Soviet centric. So, you cannot blame China for starting that race. However, the issue of Pakistan is much more muddied.

Do recall that India was considered part of the Soviet camp and especially part of the Soviet Eastern strategy. Whether true or not does not change the perception. In 1974, India exploded her bomb and in defacto confronting China with a two front nuclear situation. Since China relies on Pakistan to check India while she concentrated her tactical attentions up north, then unless China shifts some nukes south (given her limited numbers and technological and technical inferiority vis-a-vi Moscow would make it unlikely), then the only way to check India's nukes were to use Pakistan nukes.

The AQ Khan got dreams of grandeur and bastardized that Chinese dream into a nightmare.

It is an explanation for the Chinese, but it does not excuse the Chinese. Law of Unintended Consequences cuts both ways: Chinese meddled in an ancient struggle whose rules they don't understand, now they have to own up to that one way or another. India is building its ABM program with the Pakistanis in mind; the fact that is scalable to jeopardize the China-India balance is also the Law of Unintended Consequences. The Chinese, of course, have the choice of cleaning up the mess they made in India's west and Indian politicians will be more than happy to scrap the ABM program...

**Officer of Engineers** · 05-14-2008, 09:19 AM

I have absolutely no say in Chinese policies. The best I can do is to understand what are their motivations and their consequences.

That being said, the Pakistanis fill out a very prized role in the PLA's strategies. To the point where the CCP would rather shove an inferior plane down the PLAAF's throat just to satisfy Pak egos. Such bribery insured that the Chinese can always rely on the Paks to check India.

Incidently, the Chinese already have an ABM system with the S-300 variants.

Agnostic Muslim · 05-14-2008, 09:21 AM

Quote:

The Chinese, of course, have the choice of cleaning up the mess they made in India's west and Indian politicians will be more than happy to scrap the ABM program...

The Indians have just as much of a choice to work towards normalization as well, and work with Pakistan to clean up what I would describe as a "mess" created by both.

Deflection of responsibility on China for issues that need to be resolved in South Asia is disingenuous.

05-14-2008, 09:19 AM	#59 (permalink)
Officer of Engineers *Military Professional* Moderator Scotch taster Join Date: 08-06-03 Posts: 15,898 Country:	I have absolutely no say in Chinese policies. The best I can do is to understand what are their motivations and their consequences. That being said, the Pakistanis fill out a very prized role in the PLA's strategies. To the point where the CCP would rather shove an inferior plane down the PLAAF's throat just to satisfy Pak egos. Such bribery insured that the Chinese can always rely on the Paks to check India. Incidently, the Chinese already have an ABM system with the S-300 variants. Last edited by Officer of Engineers : 05-14-2008 at 09:21 AM.

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