Officer of Engineers

India can never destroy China in a 2nd strike, at least not without a superpower arsenal.

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Chimo

Blademaster

I m sorry but I am somewhat dubious that some of those 1400 missiles are even operational. Most of them require liquid fueling and have been in existence for more than 20 years. I would estimate that Chinese has about 500 operational missiles.

Besides most of them are very simple ballistic missiles meaning they can be shot down once India develop its own BMD, thereby negating China's advantage.

zraver

This is all my speculation

IIRC all of China's ICBM are oriented on either Russia or the US as revenge weapons. All expdcet the SSBN, and China won't use these unless she wants to burn the world. Both the US and Russia have to many weapons in play for China to risk either doing a LAW when they see the thermal blooms na dhear the sonar blasts. Well, unless China pulls a samson. This leaves China with 130-180 non-ICBM platforms for use vs India plus Pakistan's 35... So 200 or so deliverable warheads. If China goes nuclear you go all the way so some of those 200 have to be targeted at population centers, non-nuclear military sites and industry becuase only a mad man assumes they can get all of India's weapons and thus avoid a second strike so get your revenge before you need it. At 2 warheads per target averaged and a top 50 list that leaves China 100 weapons to strike India's deterent force. India thus needs 150 systems deployed far enough apart that at least 1/3 of the force servives so India can hit back at a top 17 list in China. Since India does not have to worry about hitting Chinese nuclear assets. India only needs enough to hit the 17 biggest population centers for revenge and China ceases to function as a country plus that leaves 10 bombs/warheads for other targets like the Yanghteze dam at the three gorges after taking out Lahore, Karachi and Islamabad.

target list-

Bejing, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Tainjin, Hangzhou, Shenyang, Changchun, Harbin, Chengdu, Jinan, Wuhan, Qingdao, Chongging, Handan, Nanjing, Xi-an, Dalian alone account for 108 million people. Given the affects of Nagasaki and Hiroshima and the much denser packing of a modern Chinese city that goes up (high rises) as often as it goes out each bomb would probably kill in excess of 200k instantly and 2x that number in 90 days thats over a million dead per city, and it destroys the center and industrial heart of the city...

So India doesn't need a US-Soviet style arsenal Just 50 more bombs than China can destroy in a first strike.

Sumku

Interesting Hypothesis but your conclusion is based on the fact that India would sign the deal for Nuke's, which is incorrect. India wants the deal for producing electricity and related Tech

If we dont sign the deal, then we dont get to produce cheap electricity in any significant amount and without electricity today's Indian economic miracles would become history tomorrow.

This would mean that to develop 1000 Nukes with some over 1MT, it would take more than 20 years, probably 50-60 years.

Lets be clear on the deal once and for all. India's Primary Interests in the deal are

1) To Get U at market price in large quatities.
2) To get tomorrow's latest Nuclear Reactor related tech today so that India's own Reactors[read FBR] starts to move with some speed
3) In order to achieve 1 and 2 as stated above, India's Military Capabilities should not be compromised
4) In order to achieve 1 and 2 as stated above, there should not be a Need for India to cut back or scale down production of Fissile Materials


Once 2 starts happen, it would not be extremely impossible to divert some of that towards Military areas - making Nukes.

Officer of Engineers

They're sitting across Taiwan in 6 brigades. We do know that they have been training a lot and they've gone down from a 5 missile salvo to a 3 missile salvo. So a lot of work has been done. Mind you of those 6 brigades, they are also dealing with the reload issue which is interesting. They're expecting those brigades to remain operational after the 1st barrage.

Somehow, they expect the Americans not to get involve because I cannot see how those brigades could survive American strike packages.

Blademaster

Ok, how good are the targeting software? Can they easily change the coordinates of the Taiwanese targets to coordinates of Indian targets? Remember most of these missiles are in the IRBM range, meaning that if they want to hit Indian targets, they have to re-transport them and re-orient them into position. By that time, India will know something's up.

Officer of Engineers

I should hope to hell that India would know something is up. We discussed this before. It would take the Chinese 2 years to build the necessary infrastructure (roads, fuel tanks, barracks, designate launch sites, maintenance depots) before one missile can be transported. However, the argument would be how many missiles can India build in 2 years versus 1400 that can be re-oriented in 2 years.

It's a race that Indians have already lost.

Jay

Sir,
But why would they move them all? Their grand strategy asks them to place these missiles pointed towards the straits, right?

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A grain of wheat eclipsed the sun of Adam !!

Officer of Engineers

The 38th Group Army was not supposed to be tasked with North Korea either but there she sits.

It is a matter of threat perception. Will Indian nukes be more scary than the dream of drinking tea in Taipei?

Officer of Engineers

Just reading your post, now the Indian preference for aircrafts as opposed to missiles now make sense. If we take the only known missile strike missions (cruise missiles), then the numbers ain't in the Chinese favour. 25 in Operation DESERT FOX, 75 against Al Qeida in Afghanistan, 800 against Baghdad in Operation IRAQI FREEDOM, the Chinese would run out of missiles long before they run out of targets.

However, if the Chinese restrict themselves to Indian missiles than even at 5 missile volleys per Indian missile, then, the Chinese would have missiles to spare.

zraver

India's big problem right now is delivery systems and warhead size.They start off from a disadvantage. Thanks to the Earths rotation given the same technology Chinese missiles go farther than Indian systems so can trade fuel for payload. Then of course China has a head start. This means India needs a system that is robust enough to offer a real second strike capability there by negating the numbers advantage China has, and long enough ranged to put at least 25kt anywhere in China (twice the size of Hiroshima). I am not sure the Surya-1 and 2 are up to the job. They have the range but employing ICBM's forces China to do the same vs India instead of relying on MRBM and IRBM's. The Agni III under development is a failure. It is not mobile and so is a sitting duck. Putting them in the ground means they are 1st strike targets. India needs road or rail mobile IRBM with a 3000 mile range- crossing E to W on a northern track. This puts all of China under India's guns.

India has the Agni II in both road and rail form but its range seems to be limited to 2100km (1300 miles) to short to reach the North-East coastal areas and the norther part of the central China. Bejing is IIRC about 2500km from the closest point in India

One option is to put the Prithvi-III aboard ship (sub). Any ship so equipped only has to get within 350km of any Chinese coastal city to enact revenge.
China has an edge, but India can build up a credible MAD force if there is the will to do so.

gamercube

It may *seem* as if electricity is the main reason the deal is being negotiated, but it is not. Nuclear plants have an extremely high capital cost, and building hundreds of them is not economically feasible for India. Even the best estimates say that nuclear power plants will contribute at most 10% of India's energy mix by 2040, up from the current 3% or so. Hence, the deal is more about bringing India into the nuclear mainstream and thus easing the way for export of other advanced technology to us. This is also a part of cultivating an "ally" or hedge against China in Uncle Sam's book. However, this deal fails to take into account India's security concerns.

Since electricity is not going to form a large part of our energy mix anyway (unlike, for example, France), the question we have to ask ourselves is this: Should we sign away our right to self defence in exchange for a 7% increase in electricity by 2040?

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Hasta la Victoria siempre!

gamercube

As per my knowledge, Agni III is both road and rail mobile. Plans are also afoot to integrate it in the ATV to make it a reliable second strike platform.

3,500km range Agni-III to be testfired this month-India-The Times of India

Geopolitical Diary: India and the Agni III | Stratfor

zraver

That is the claim, but most pics show a missile that is not the Agni III. I have been able to find one low quality pic that might be an Agni III on a road launcher, but could just as easily be a mere transporter.

If it is road/rail mobile than India has made its critical leap forward.

gamercube

Wouldn't the Agni III be put on trucks after it has been inducted? It is still under testing, so obviously you haven't seen pictures of it in the Republic Day parades or anywhere else. The Republic Day parades usually show off the Agni I and II since they've already been inducted.

Besides, I know the record of DRDO is not very good, but even I don't believe that they would make such an advanced missile but not make it mobile.

And thirdly, the Agni IV, with a range of 5000 kms, is to be tested in the last quarter of 2008.

domain-b.com : India to test 5,000 km range, Agni-IV IRBM at year-end