Officer of Engineers

Hitesh, the rubble has to move. That's the point. And the dam has yet to cure ... will take at least another 100 years.

Both the DF-2s and the MINUTEMAN are over 20 years old.

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Chimo

Blademaster

I would imagine that the force of an earthquake or a large scale nuke would cause the rubble to move somewhat. When it moves, pathways would be open and the force of incoming water would seriously erode the pathways, leading to structural integrity failure.

And US is phasing these MINUTEMANs out, right? or IIRC, they would do take them out on a phase manner and rebuild the rockets. I don't know about the DF-2s.

Officer of Engineers

The damn has not cured. That means the internal structure is something like wet clay so it is extremely flexible. The Chinese chosed a very good design. They had to. However, there are other issues that are causing problems. If I was an Indian targeteer, I would not be aiming to bust the dam but to clog it up even further.

500 ICBMs are supposed to remain in operations. All rockets both here and in China goes through a maintenance cycle where they are sent back to the factory for a complete overhaul. Doesn't always work ... as per part of Stuart's 40% failure rate.

Sumku

Yeah absolutely correct[Why I forgot that in the First Place?] Anyways, I was wondering that if we assume that China continues to make missiles at the same rate and India then catches up at the same rate. What do you then think "What are the chances of India and China embroiling themselves in a Nuke exchange in next 20 years"? Lets not include assumptions like China involving India in an India Pakistan exchange and How Soon would China respond, if lets assume that India sells some Nukes to Taiwan[Its not allowed and most probably wont happen,but just assume that if it does happen]

Blademaster

Besides, OOE, did you ever consider that if war breaks out between Taiwan and China, China would lose any numerical advantage over India? I never thought I would say it, but for the sake of India's security, it would be better if war breaks out between China and Taiwan. That way, China would expend her ordnance and suffer some attrition.

Officer of Engineers

I don't know enough from the Indian perspective to give you a qualified answer except to say that the most current doctrine (Cold Start) aims to avoid the nuclear threshold, not cross it.

By the same token, the Chinese War Zone Campaign envisioned nothing about a nuclear exchange.

So, the "nuclear business" part of this is lacking from both sides.

Also, I don't know how anal the Indian Civilian Release Command Authority is but the PLA's 2nd Artillery Corps is extremely frustrated with the Central Military Commission. There have been exercises where the 2AC could not even get an exercise nuclear release.

So much so that the 2AC has given up on the nuclear 1st strike option and went to the conventional 1st strike mission. You will note that I've stated that they've done a lot of work in this area where they've gone down from a 5 missile salvo to a 3 missile salvo.

And there are hints that the Indians are following suit in this area going away from a nuclear 1st strike option to a missile barrage 1st strike.

I can see the attractiveness of this option since it does not involve a civilian release authority.

Another point is that I don't think either country has given much thought to the other as far as what kind of targeting strategy would justify a retaliatory strike. Is either side going to nuke for the sake of killing people ... or would they aim for a counter-political strike.

By contrast, the Chinese know that any strike that they can hit the CONUS with is symbolic; not counter-political and certainly not counter-force ... but they think it would be enough to deter an American nuclear 1st strike ... only thing is that the Americans don't need a nuclear 1st strike.

I really don't know what China thinks of India and what India thinks of China as far as targeting priorities go. By contrast, I know what the Indians think of Pakistan. The Pakistani COAS (and his HQ) would be dead.

Officer of Engineers

Thank you, Hitesh for reminding us what is the true ground reality. The PLA is Taiwan and not India centric.

Blademaster

But it is sure damn hard to remember the true ground reality when you got actions by PLA that could be interpreted to mean hostile intent against you such as troops movement, building roads close to the border, numerous troop incurions, blatant statements that how some parts of India belongs to China.

Deltacamelately

Sorry for the mistake Glyn.
Trust me, I sure can spell "Great", how can I forget our Colonial Masters?
That's the point. I meant that this strategy is a flawed one. This will result in the destruction of an entire nation trying to bring down a Metro City. But pardon me, this was UKs strategy, not mine.
Read This:
All this is just to vindicate and reiterate how bang on target Zraver was, regarding ABM Systems and how they can alter the existing deterence and balance of power.

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I am the DARK that Rise to Kill..And Soar to Redeem!

Deltacamelately

Dear Jay,
I have argued a lot with the Col, in light of such a scenario. The problem according to him is, India can not match the PLA in a hypothetical 1st strike using conventional means, i.e. Salvo batteries, just because we don't have that many missiles, without resorting to nukes, which again India won't opt fearing the retaliation. He refers to the Taiwanese theatre and those 1400 batteries with some 30-40 getting added each year.
Now this is a point I disagreed. IMHO, the PLA for obvious reasons can not afford to reorient those entire 1400 + batteries to the south to counter a potent Indian ABM System. The numbers that they can ramp up to the south won't simply be adequate to break neatly through the screens. PLUS, we will be ready with whatever numbers and range we will have. There won't we any neccessity for a nuke 1st strike. Even with superior numbers, the PLA will be tied down in the Taiwanese theatre, not to mention Korea and Japan.
The numbers simply ain't in their side as far as south is concerned.

Officer of Engineers

Major,

You've missed the point. They have the capabilities. Whether or not they have the intentions should not be a consideration when evaluating the threat. That is the 1st mistake any amateur strategist makes. Again, I point to you would have ever considered the Chinese would attack one of their allies, the North Koreans?

Also, India is in the same boat as China vis-a-vi Pakistan. India cannot afford to move all her systems away from Pakistan either. Unlike China, India does have an active enemy. China does not.

Third, China can move all her missiles without exposing the mainland to danger one single bit. The main purpose of those missiles is to keep Taiwan under threat; NOT to destroy strategic threats to Chinese security. So your assumption that they cannot move this missiles in order to counter Taiwan and Japan is dangerously out of place.

Officer of Engineers

China already beaten you to that. They have an operational ABM system. India does not.

However, what was left unstated in Nuke War 102 was that the Soviet ABM system over Moscow were all nukes. They were using nukes to shoot down nukes. While in theory, this would work, I really hate the idea of over 100 nukes going off in the skies over Moscow.

Blademaster

What kind of ABM system does China have? Do you mean the S-300? IIRC, that is only effective against Scud-like missiles, not advanced IRBM and ICBM missiles. The Agni missiles employ a spiral downward trajectory, including deploying decoys to confuse the ABM system.

Besides, has China ever tested the system itself?

Sumku

Nope. Not to date.

glyn

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