xinhui

Gents

It was widely published that as a lesson-learned from the SAS epidemic, PRC estimated a crisis management team to deal with unexpected events.

I think the current protest Tibet can serve as an opportunity to view how the team is working (or not working), some of the internal PRC mechanism in Crisis Management, and more importantly decision making process. Clearly, the central government was caught by surprise. One of the items noted during the recent China new year ice storm is that the Central Government failed to communicate to the locate level and the cold winter expertise and other resource of the Northern provinces were not utilized.

Many of us have strong and emotional feelings on the current event and there are different threads for them, I think it could be possible to analyze from an outsider’s perspective, given the importance of Tibet in Sino-India relations, and if the military option is to be used (hope not), it should give some hints on PLA’s current operational capabilities.

Officer of Engineers

I'm surprised Martial Law has not been declared.

__________________
Chimo

xinhui

I think if someone in the PAP wants to be promoted, this is his chance.

xinhui

Here is an example writing on crisis management of PRC from a Chinese dude

http://www.wsichina.org/cs5_6.pdf

Crisis Management in China*
Zhong Kaibin

Zhong Kaibin is a Ph.D. candidate at the School of Public Policy & Management,
Tsinghua University, where he engages in research on crisis management, safety
regulation and public health. He was a visitor researcher at CRISMART Swedish
National Defense College Stockholm from November 2005 to January 2006, for
working together on a project about SARS crisis management.


China’s primary security
risk is now the individual,
not the state.

Institutional weakness
hampers China’s ability
to sufficiently cope with
crises of varying scales
and complexities.

The roles and
responsibilities of
government are
ambiguous, with many
jurisdictional gaps and
contradictions.

The “stove-pipe” nature
of China’s bureaucratic
organizations
continues to hamper
effective action.


Crises increasingly spill
over national borders
and affect regional and
international actors.

xinhui

so public, so fast

Gen. Yang Deqing of the People’s Liberation Army said Chinese soldiers would not be deployed and the protests were being handled by local police officers and the country’s paramilitary force, the People’s Armed Police.

“We’ll let the police and the military police handle the disturbance,” General Yang said at the National People’s Congress, where he was a delegate. “We won’t be involved.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/15/wo...ld&oref=slogin

xinhui

Gen. Yang Deqing is the PC of Guangzhou MR, that is a petty low level officer to release such an important statement. He was the PC for Chengdu MR before this current assignment.



杨德清：广州军区政治委员，上将


Here is his bio
杨德清上将，男，汉族，1942年9月生，湖北应城人，1964年10月加入中国共产党，1963年12月 参加工作，解放军政治学院完成班毕业，大专学历，上将军衔。1963年12月参加中国人民解放军。1963 年12月至1968年2月为陆军战士；1968年2月至1968年6月任陆军排长；1968 年6月至1974年2月任陆军师政治部宣传科干事；1974年2月至1977年3月任武汉军区政治部秘书处 秘书；1977年3月至1982年8月任陆军团副政治委员兼政治处主任（期间：1980年10月至1982 年7月在解放军政治学院完成班学习）；1982年8月至1983年2月任陆军团政治委员； 1983年2月至1984年4月任陆军师政治部主任；1984年4月至1985年8月任陆军师政治委员；1 985年8月至1989年10月任陆军集团军政治部主任；1989年10月至1990年6月任解放军军事经 济学院政治部主任；1990年6月至1991年12月任解放军军事经济学院政治委员（期间： 1991年9月至12月在中共中央党校进修班学习）；1991年12月至1994年12月任解放军总后勤部 政治部主任；1994年12月至1999年5月任解放军总后勤部副政治委员兼纪委书记；1999年5月至2 003年12月任成都军区政治委员；2003年12月起任广州军区政治委员。1990年7月被授予少将军衔 ，1996年7月晋升为中将军衔，2004年6月晋升为上将军衔。中共第十六届中央委员，中共十四大、十五 大当选为中纪委委员。

Ray

APC are being used as per one of the pictures I saw.

Do the Chinese Police have APCs?

Or could it be that the APCs are being used by para military elements?

__________________


"Some have learnt many Tricks of sly Evasion, Instead of Truth they use Equivocation, And eke it out with mental Reservation, Which is to good Men an Abomination."

I don't have to attend every argument I'm invited to.

HAKUNA MATATA

Officer of Engineers

Sir,

The local police would have armoured trucks but the People's Armed Police is a paramilitary organization with a full array of military heavy equipment including tanks, APCs, and artillery.

xinhui

Timing....

Being reading some of the mainland bbs on this one, they suggested many of the PAP are on leave as a compensation for working OT during the Chinese new year winter storm, in addition, most of the senior civilian leadership are in Beijing attending the 17th people's congress.

xinhui

First statement from the mayor

China wasn't imposing martial law in Lhasa to quell protests, Xinhua reported today, citing the city's mayor, Doje Cezhug.

Bloomberg.com: Worldwide

xinhui

The problem is that most of the PAP mobile divisions with heavy eq are located near Xinjing which experienced much more armed riots.

xinhui

Lhasa Mayor Norbu Dunzhub, left, arrives for a session of the National People's Congress in Beijing's Great Hall of the People Sunday, March 16, 2008. There was an overwhelming security presence Sunday in the Tibetan capital to enforce a curfew in the wake of a crackdown on violent protests that drew negative publicity for China ahead of the Beijing Olympics.
(AP Photo/Oded Balilty)

Attached Images

china_tibet_xob103.jpg (67.7 KB, 164 views)

xinhui

I think if there is a Tibetan organization existed, they made a very poor move on attacking everyone, including the Muslim, as event has became a “US vs THEM” at this point.

I noted the reactions in Chinese BBS, in that the riot gain no support from the Han, even those Han who called for dialog. If the protester targeted only the government buildings and direct their attack as an anti-government drive, after all, 100 of million poor Chinese suffered from the same corruption and inflation. If protesters did that, they might gain some support from other left-behind Han poor, and Muslims whom is the 2nd largest minorities in China.

Inst

Well, they can do whatever they want. Even after the Chinese casualties international opinion is, if not pro-Tibetan, anti-Chinese.

xinhui

CCTV reports Chengdu MR conducted a night time mobilization "ex" on 3/16/2008

I guess, PLA wants to be ready, just in case.

Attached Images

	ChengduMRcctv7_29.jpg (34.1 KB, 144 views)
	ChengduMRcctv7_30.jpg (33.9 KB, 143 views)