Cactus

None so blind as he who won't see...

S-2

Brigadier,

"That is why I don't bet my bottom dollar on Kurdistan!"

Sir, I'm sorry but you don't get it. You don't have a choice to bet or not. The macro view indicates partition. American policy in Iraq clings, however, to a strategy of accumulating momentum at a micro/grass-roots level. We (and you) have no choice in the face of continued recalcitrance within Iraq's parliament. Bottom-up.

Unfortunately, IMHO, "bottom-up" empowers local communities first, not last. From there, logically, it will lead to the provinces with the consequent momentum eventually spilling into the nat'l consensus. Brigadier, if that final connection between provincial gov't and the nat'l leadership isn't made, partition will be upon us.

You fail to acknowledge that Kurdistan's independance may be presented to the rest of mankind as a fait accompli arising from no other available option for Iraqi Kurds. That said, you've yet to suggest why a Kurdistan need threaten any adjoining nation. Further, sir, you've yet to indicate why a Kurdistan wouldn't be a net contributor to the region's economic vitality.

"One of the issues that anyone wanting to create a country out of another should remember is that it has access to the Ocean."

Land-locked? Ocean access? You mean like Switzerland? I don't see it as critical with good neighbors. Don't forget though, Brigadier, that Kurdistan may have no choice but independance without nat'l reconciliation within Iraq.

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"This aggression will not stand, man!" Jeff Lebowski

Agnostic Muslim

So the West is apparently immune from the lessons of "breeding trouble for tomorrow"...

Or, if your comment was directed at RP - I agree!

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Pakistan is not going to be a theocratic state to be ruled by priests with a divine mission - Jinnah

S-2

"So the West is apparently immune from the lessons of 'breeding trouble for tomorrow'..."

Your "lessons" are not immutable. As I mentioned earlier, you seem unduly content with the last hegemon's efforts at etch-a-map. Most of the rest of us feel otherwise.

While most can take heart at India's emerging success derived from the Mountbatten/Radcliffe partition, Pakistan's legacy is a review of human misery that refuses to confine itself within it's borders.

As currently configured, your nation is a powder-keg defying solutions while awaiting a single spark at the wrong time and place for all of us.

P5- Proactive Preventive Pakistani Partition Plan.

I love Ralph Peters' commentary. He's fun, don't you agree?

WhamBam

Theoritically a good plan if it does not cause more heartache and bloodshed than it is trying to prevent in the first place.

The problem is the lack of any kind of democratic roots in the region. It is well nigh impossible even for the relatively moderate and tolerant people of the countries in the losers list to accept the plan, even if it benefits the majority of the people concerned. And the resistance will not be limited to being verbal.

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There are 10 kinds of people in the world, those who understand binary and those who don’t..

Cactus

Me likes Ralph Peters; he was the first author I read who put himself in shoes of his opponents (Red Army). Even though I knew that he was a US Army officer in counter-intel (LTC?) I didn't begin to see how realistic his fiction was until I began reading some accounts from people who served in '70s (do you know "Worchester"? A combat engineer with lots of knowledge about British Army, but not British?).

S-2

My intro to Ralph as well. As a young artillery officer back then preparing to defend the frontiers of freedom from the communist hordes, I found his approach a tasty departure from the Hackett/Clancy predictable outcome.

Agnostic Muslim

The response was to Cactus, and you have taken it completely out of context. I am not referring to any of "my lessons".

And are you not content in leaving the "map" of the US the way it is? Which hegemon's map, with all the empires that have existed in that part of the world, should we go back to? I am content with leaving the map the way it is because I see the nonsensical yarn RP is spinning, without any consideration of the communal, Tribal and nationalistic dynamics on the ground.

Unsubstantiated ranting about "a review of human misery" does not prove anything. On almost all socio-economic indicators, and GDP on PPP basis, Pakistan is pretty equivalent to India. The majority of the violent instability in Pakistan leads right into Afghanistan, where the weapons, drugs and refuge for both the Taliban and Baluch militants reside.

"As currently configured" you have given zero reasoning for the arguments you have made. I at least attempted a reasoned critique of RP's "plan", based on my knowledge and experience of the demographics and sentiments of the peoples who inhabit the region. What have you, other than voicing opinions based on a "Western Media stereotype" of the situation in Pakistan?

S-2

"Unsubstantiated ranting about "a review of human misery" does not prove anything."

Hardly a rant. Nor does my judgement of Pakistan's condition need rely upon western media influence/consensus. However, your "insider" knowledge suggests I have it wrong. As such, I congratulate your fellow citizens and you for building a nation and society worthy of emulation right under the rest of the world's un-seeing eyes. How could the rest of us be so wrong? Oh well. Thanks for setting me straight.

"As currently configured" you have given zero reasoning for the arguments you have made."

Not sure that I need to. Pakistan continues daily to argue my position better than I could possibly do myself, "as currently configured".

"The majority of the violent instability in Pakistan leads right into Afghanistan, where the weapons, drugs and refuge for both the Taliban and Baluch militants reside."

Uh-huh. Sure. You're writing to a former American army officer. Our troops absolutely see the reverse condition prevailing. In fact, about 3200mils differently. I guarantee that the Taliban find no refuge on the Afghan side of the border. I equally guarantee that Afghan opium finds itself magically transformed to heroin in your processing labs along the border. You know that. Guns? Who are you kidding?

Adux

Sir,

Baloch insurgency is being stumped out as we speak. While Pashtunistan movement is gathering momentum. From most Afghainstani's I have met, and some of the Pakistani Baloch residents, They dont accept Pakistani rule from Islamabad. And downright despise's the absolute control of Punjabi's and Sindhi's who they do not consider racially equal to them, and not muslim enough. Therefore I dont know wether having a seperate Balochistan or Greater Afghanistan will make a world a safer place.

Adux

Sri Lanka has a Higher GDP per captia than India and Pakistan,
So, what is your point?

Agnostic Muslim

My point is how you define a "failing state" with respect to another when you cannot show any major differences in socio-economic indicators, nor can you prove a lack of national identity and cohesion. The only difference between India and Pakistan at this point is our lack of a democratic system, and we will see how that works out.

Agnostic Muslim

You speak of a "Pashtunishtan movement gathering momentum", and then narrate the views of Afghanis - it is the same mistake RP makes, an assumption that just because both sides call each other Pashtun means they somehow yearn to be together. I have already given my reasons for why this is invalid.

The majority of the Baluch want autonomy, not independence, and the "Autonomy Bill" being vetted by the GoP right now will indicate how much of their demands get fulfilled, but with the deaths of Marri and Bugti, and the demographic changes in the province (the Pashtun would you believe it!), the "independence movement" is going nowhere.

By the way, which party or group in the NWFP is leading this "independent Pashtunistan movement"?

Adux

Lets start from Economic Size, GDP reserves, to growth rates in comparison with inflation rates, No Pakistan is not an economical equal anywhere close for that matter to India. Pakistan is called a failed state for more than reasons than just 'it is not a democracy.

Lets have a talk on Defence, Education, Trade, Future Growth, Space, Poverty eradication. No Pakistan is not an equal. As I write this, I am listening to a guy in CNN talk about the how dynamic Indian Economy is, and how it is the fastest celluar market in the world.

Lack of Cohesion and National Unity, How many soldiers and para-military has deserted in the last 4 months. who controls the Northern Areas, Waziristan and FATA. Swat was with Insurgents till last week. You can put mud in your eyes as much as you want. Pakistan is at a cross-roads, socio-economic indicators is not the reason it is at the place it is now.

Agnostic Muslim

A rant indeed, since you still refuse to detail the reasoning behind your arguments. I made no claims of "insider knowledge", but merely made arguments based on my experiences from living in a country and interacting with the communities in question - the demographic arguments are not opinion, but fact. Snide comments and a "smiley" do not pass as substantiation.

Of course not, thats why the Taliban were able to capture how many districts was it and for how many weeks? Two Thousand Taliban in Musa Qala, and you captured and killed how many? The Taliban find refuge on both sides of the border, and the terrain allows them to do that. Most of the explosives being used in the suicide bombings in Pakistan are of Russian or Central Asian origin. Pakistan sure as heck doesn't have very much of a weapons trade with Russia.

And the fact remains that the source for the drugs is the poppy, which Pakistan has "miraculously" eliminated within its territory, but the US allows to grow to 54 percent of Afghan GDP. Cut the poppy crop (and the poppycock), and you wont have to worry about the drug labs.

The Pakistan Army seems to believe the weapons the BLA uses, and where its leaders find refuge (Marri allegedly killed in Afghanistan) is in Afghanistan. So perhaps the truth is that like the Tribes, the weapons also flow back and forth.