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Old 01-01-2008, 14:52 PM   #166 (permalink)
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"In Iraq and Afghanistan, I just don't see the support of the local populace because they are doing two things: They are giving material support and aiding & abetting the enemy/insurgents, they provide intelligence to the enemy/insurgents."

I absolutely can't agree about Iraq. Not at all. One-third of the nation is solid in our presence and the sunni support has dramatically increased this year. You know that, I'm sure.
It is too early to tell. Half a year ago, it seemed like you had lost the battle for hearts and minds. Now it is not but the question is: Can you sustain it for long? That is the essence of "staying power".

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"Essentially, you haven't won the battle for the hearts and minds."

Let's talk about that. We haven't lost them either. Further, Afghanistan entails far more nations than ourselves so you need to account for that- good, bad, or indifferent.

Neither are lost by any stretch. Our stamina is fine. Afghanistan, in particular, is something I can't imagine being abandoned anytime soon. Should Iraq continue to display the very visible improvement thus seen (and which you've ignored, seemingly) we'll likely see U.S. forces increase in Afghanistan.
Like I said, it is too early to tell whether the visible improvements in Iraq are sustainable. Hence the battle has not been won. That is the point I am getting at. I did not say that the US was losing. I said that I just don't see the necessary ingredients there for the "enabling" of staying power. You still have insurgents roaming around and the turnaround of the local populace and their support against Sunni insurgents remains a question of "how long are they gonna keep it that way." I have seen too many episodes of the local populace turning their colors each time the wind blows in a different direction to be convinced that we have turned over a new page. Ask me in a year and perhaps I can give you a different answer.

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Now, an interesting question might entail the determination and stamina of our allies. Should they falter, though, I know India will happily provide the necessary forces to see Afghanistan join the family of nations.
India is doing that through soft power, i.e., civil forces building infrastructure, hospitals, schools, rebuilding the civil service, etc.
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Old 01-01-2008, 14:56 PM   #167 (permalink)
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So you are suggesting, based on your earlier comment, that the federal bureaucracy is almost entirely dominated by Punjabis. Punjab makes up almost half the population of Pakistan, Baluchistan is probably underrepresented - can you illustrate what percentage of the Federal bureaucracy is Punjabi, and whether Punjabis constitute an abnormally larger share than their population size allows? How the selection process works - i.e quotas and then merit, or merit alone? What influence and power the bureaucracy actually has, i.e Prime ministers (or presidents) and their cabinets determine what projects are adopted and executed, so what effect does the Federal bureaucracy actually have on the populations of the provinces who have their own bureaucracies that the residents have to deal with?
I cannot give you numerical quotes but from reading countless Pakistani articles and newspapers, it does give a credible picture that the bureaucracy and the civil service is largely dominated by Punjabis, most businesses are largely dominated by Punjabis, and most culture media are largely dominated by Punjabis.
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Old 01-01-2008, 15:14 PM   #168 (permalink)
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"...it seemed like you had lost the battle for hearts and minds. Now it is not..."

Glad that we have that cleared up because that's not what you said just a couple of posts ago. Can we sustain? I guess you'll need to wait and see but I don't see our presence going away. We'll begin reducing forces but we won't ELIMINATE our presence. Meanwhile the Iraqi Army continues to grow and improve.

"I have seen too many episodes of the local populace turning their colors each time the wind blows in a different direction..."

I don't believe you. Please indicate these numerous episodes of turning colors willy-nilly. Numerous, remember.

It's a war. The other side is playing to win- but they're losing Iraq, flat-out. To deny the obvious is obstinance to support your position. Nothing more. The ground evidence argues strongly otherwise.

"soft power", eh? I know well what you mean. You know well that's not what I meant and further fails to answer the question of the stamina within other nations, not America. Meanwhile you might ante up the soft power while you're at it. It's failing.
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Old 01-01-2008, 15:58 PM   #169 (permalink)
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He was referring to the pullout of the troops by GoI in Sri Lanka. A rebuttal to our assertion of "staying power" by means of geographical proximity.

A good rebuttal but still at anytime, we can go back in and stay there indefinitely as long as it suits our interests. It will not be that expensive or hard as the Americans are having in Afghanistan or in Iraq.
Anyone can say nation-X can stay in nation-Y forever, yet when the coffins come home and the public begins to clamor for a withdraw from a never ending conflict - interests can change at the drop of a hat.

India left Sri Lanka thus there is no precedence for saying they would sit in Afghanistan just because it is nearby. In fact it is less nearby then Sri Lanka for the issue of Pakistan.

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So technically, we may just be passing down our COIN tactics to Pakistan.
Hasn't done them a bit of good.
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Old 01-01-2008, 16:12 PM   #170 (permalink)
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I cannot give you numerical quotes but from reading countless Pakistani articles and newspapers, it does give a credible picture that the bureaucracy and the civil service is largely dominated by Punjabis, most businesses are largely dominated by Punjabis, and most culture media are largely dominated by Punjabis.
The bias or perceptions of the authors may paint a picture quiet different from reality. Pakistani journalism is not overly enamored with pursuing facts and figures, and I have read some horrendous examples. There is the very important issue of whether the "domination" is simply representative of the demographic breakup. I need something more substantial to believe your contention that the majority of the Pashtun are "resentful of Punjabi dominance", especially as it relates to the "domination of the Federal bureaucracy - most affairs are taken care of at the provincial level and by the provincial bureaucracy, so I am not quite sure how the average Pashtun is feeling resentful of the Punjabi civil servant in Islamabad that he will probably never see, and who has pretty much nothing to do with his life. A very good indicator of the sentiment in any province would be which parties come to power, and the more nationalistic ones (not even separatist) have never won majorities or even come close in the NWFP.

Also, as far as businesses go, Sindh actually is the largest source of revenue for Pakistan, and if by Punjabi domination of "culture" you mean Punjabi Cinema, then I think that the other provinces resent the Punjabis more for the trash Lollywood churns out than any domination.
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Old 01-01-2008, 17:09 PM   #171 (permalink)
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India left Sri Lanka thus there is no precedence for saying they would sit in Afghanistan just because it is nearby. In fact it is less nearby then Sri Lanka for the issue of Pakistan.
Troung, we had gone into Sri Lanka to keep peace between two warring factions, i.e. the LTTE and the government forces. We were loosing soldiers, yes, but at the same time the LTTE was put on a backfoot, the biggest reason for the pull out is that the Sri Lankan government itself stopped supporting Indian troops in their country. So when the Lankans themselves resented our troops and actually went as far as to help the LTTE against the Indian army, who were we to stay there and ask them to stop killing each other?
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Old 01-01-2008, 23:39 PM   #172 (permalink)
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You're agreeing with Troung's point.
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Old 01-02-2008, 00:10 AM   #173 (permalink)
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If India builds the land bridge to Sri Lanka, India will have her "staying power" enabled.
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Old 01-02-2008, 00:27 AM   #174 (permalink)
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You're agreeing with Troung's point.
Ah, I thought troung was questioning IA's staying power in Sri Lanka.
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Old 01-02-2008, 00:35 AM   #175 (permalink)
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Ah, I thought troung was questioning IA's staying power in Sri Lanka.
He is.
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Old 01-02-2008, 00:39 AM   #176 (permalink)
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BM and Tronic,

The point is that India left without accomplishing her goals.

And Tronic, when the hell did you start learning Navajo in Canada? The Blackfoot would have a word with you about that.

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Old 01-02-2008, 01:10 AM   #177 (permalink)
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If India builds the land bridge to Sri Lanka, India will have her "staying power" enabled.
Sri Lanka had no real navy nor did the Tamil Tigers. And Pakistan doesn't have a border with Sri Lanka.
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Old 01-02-2008, 01:19 AM   #178 (permalink)
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The bridge allows the economy of India to be linked with Sri Lanka's economy. Sri Lanka's economy would take off and be more prosperours and because of that, she would want to remain on the good side of India.
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Old 01-02-2008, 01:33 AM   #179 (permalink)
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The bridge allows the economy of India to be linked with Sri Lanka's economy. Sri Lanka's economy would take off and be more prosperours and because of that, she would want to remain on the good side of India.
And the linking structure between India and Afghanistan will be what?
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Old 01-02-2008, 02:18 AM   #180 (permalink)
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And Tronic, when the hell did you start learning Navajo in Canada? The Blackfoot would have a word with you about that.
hehe, i'll get to the Blackfoot also sir, right after the French.
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