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11-10-2007, 01:35 AM
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#1 (permalink)
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A New Balance of Power Game in The Indian Ocean
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A New Balance of Power Game in The Indian Ocean
India gears up to tackle Chinese influence in Maldives and Sri Lanka
Amit Kumar
November 24, 2006
A new great game has begun between India and China to bring Maldives and Sri Lanka under their respective sphere of influence in the Indian Ocean region. After Myanmar and Bangladesh, to complete the "arc of influence" in South Asia, China is determined to enhance military and economic co-operation with Maldives and Sri Lanka. China's ambition to form a naval base at Marao in the Maldives, its recent entry into oil exploration business in Sri Lanka, development of port and bunker facilities at Hambantota, strengthening military co-operation and boosting bilateral trade with Colombo, are all reasons for worry to Indian policy makers.
The Indian Defence Minister's visit to Maldives in July 2006 to hand over INS Tilanchang, a 260-ton, fast-attack craft and other supplies was an astute diplomatic response to China's plan of establishing a full-fledged naval base in Marao, a Maldivian island, by 2010. New Delhi is looking forward to restrain Chinese influence in the Indian Ocean region by sticking to its post Cold War policy of engagement. 'Balancing' through 'engagement' seems to be its current strategy to maintain a balance of power in this region.
Given China's known interest in developing bases around the Indian Ocean littoral, a Chinese base in Maldives would not be surprising. Although China claims that its bases are only for securing energy supplies to feed its growing economy, Indian experts perceive the Chinese base in Maldives as motivated by Beijing's determination to contain and encircle India, and thereby limit the growing influence of the Indian Navy in the region. The Marao base deal was finalized after two years of negotiations when Chinese Prime minister Zhu Rongzi visited Male in May 2001. Once Marao comes up as the new Chinese 'pearl', Beijing's power projection in the Indian Ocean would be augmented.
China is inching closer to Sri Lanka as well. Recently, Sri Lanka allocated an exploration block in the Mannar Basin to China for exploration of petroleum resources. This allocation would imply Chinese presence just a few kilometres from India's southern tip, thus causing strategic discomfort. In economic terms, it would also mean the end of the monopoly held by Indian oil companies in this realm, putting them into direct and stiff competition from wealthy Chinese oil companies. It should be noted that the Chinese are already present at Hambantota on the southern coast of Sri Lanka, where Beijing is building bunkering facilities and an oil tank farm. This infrastructure will help service hundreds of ships that traverse the sea-lanes of commerce off Sri Lanka. The Chinese presence in Hambantota would thus be another vital element in its strategic circle already enhanced through its projects in Pakistan, Myanmar and Bangladesh.
In addition to economic gains, it is Sri Lanka's strategic location that has prompted Beijing to aim for a strategic relationship with Colombo. Beijing is much concerned about the growing US presence in the region as well as about increasing Indo-US naval co-operation in the Indian Ocean. Besides exploring options to cushion the impact of Indo-US strategic co-operation in the region, China looks at using the partnership with Sri Lanka to enhance its influence over strategic sea lanes of communication from Europe to East Asia and oil tanker routes from the Middle East to the Malacca Straits.
India has been apprehensive about China's growing naval expansion in the Indian Ocean. New Delhi views this as "encirclement" and has sometimes objected to Chinese links - especially military ties - with India's smaller neighbours. As China's new naval diplomacy unfolds in the region, India cannot remain a mute spectator and, much like China, has increased its military engagement in the region. Through 'engagement' it has successfully enhanced its regional and international profile and worked overtime to reduce Chinese influence to maintain a balance of power in the region. India now regularly conducts naval and military exercises with great powers, including the US, Japan, and China, as well as its South Asian and South-East Asian neighbours. New Delhi has signed a defence agreement with Singapore and has co-operative arrangements with many nations stretching from Seychelles to Vietnam. It has participated in mechanisms to protect maritime traffic passing through the strategic Malacca Straits.
In recent years New Delhi has intensified its pace of co-operation with countries in the Indian Ocean littoral. After the success of its tsunami diplomacy, New Delhi is looking forward to evolve new channels of naval diplomacy with these countries. During the last one year, the just retired Indian Navy chief, Admiral Arun Prakash, visited many South East Asian and South Asian capitals. The primary aims of these visits were to enhance bilateral co-operation and strengthen naval ties. Two Indian warships currently on overseas deployment made friendly port calls in Bangladesh and Myanmar. During Arun Prakash's visit to Bangladesh, the two navies discussed possibilities of connecting Vishakapatnam and Chittagong ports. An access agreement with Dhaka, to be part of the Navy's recommendations to the Indian Ministry of External Affairs, would allow more extensive patrolling, both sea borne and from air, in these sensitive waters. It will also recommend to the Government to make an offer to Dhaka for allowing Indian naval vessels to maintain some Bangladeshi ports, so as to compete with Beijing's strategic gains in that sector. (China signed a training and equipment agreement with Dhaka earlier this year.) Based on the Ministry of External Affairs' response, follow-up discussions will be firmed up with Dhaka. Such initiatives highlight the deeper understanding in South Block on the need to improve naval ties with its closest eastern neighbours to counter Chinese influence in the eastern Indian Ocean.
The exquisiteness of India's naval diplomacy is that the objective of balancing is being undertaken through a policy of co-operation. With intense co-operation alone, New Delhi has been able to create a balance of power in the Indian Ocean. While on the one side India's apprehensions over China's string of pearls strategy in the Indian Ocean has woken up New Delhi to see these developments as a future threat, on the other side it is looking forward to improve bilateral co-operation with China through diplomatic and military engagement. Recently, the second round of India-China bilateral naval exercises was concluded in the Arabian Sea. It was the first time that Chinese forces joined manoeuvres in Indian territory. The first of this series was undertaken in the South China Sea in 2003. The India-China naval engagement reflects India's determination to move forward with the policy of regional co-operation. In an era of engagement, India will have to make all endeavours at the strategic level to balance China's power realistically, through the development of its own economic and military potential and by building stronger relationships with neighbours and regional organisations like ASEAN.
Amit Kumar is Research Associate at the Indian Pugwash Society, New Delhi.
::IDSA Strategic Comments:: A New Balance of Power Game in The Indian Ocean: India gears up to tackle Chinese influence in Maldives and Sri Lanka ::
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Maldives: Emerging Theater of Great Game
By Syed Ali Mujtaba, Ph.D.
The Republic of Maldives is a group of small coral islands in the Indian Ocean region South of India. The country comprises of 1190 islands, of which only 198 islands, grouped in 20 atolls are permanently inhabited. The total area covered by the archipelago is 90,000 square kilometers. The chain of islands is confined to 820 kilometers in length and covers 130 kilometers in width. Maldives estimated population is about 3,00,000 with the capital Maale accounting for 26 per cent of the total population.
Maldives is about 150 kilometers from the Indian mainland and less than an hour flight from any south Indian international airports. However, if we compare Maldives with other South Asian countries, it hardly figures in the Indian media discourse. The standard explanation is, nothing happens in the nation of islands, so no news is good news. However this is not true. There are many activities going on in Maldives that needs India’s attention and the world at large.
India, China Maldives
A great game is on between India and China to take Maldives in its sphere of influence for the control of the Indian Ocean region. Presently more than 260 billion USD worth of oil and gas pass through the Indian Ocean and a base in Maldives by either country would directly infulence the oil commerce. Therefore India and China both are keen to woo Maldives for their strategic interests.
Since the year 2000, there has been a series of high-level contact going on between Maldivian government and senior Chinese officials. As many as five senior Chinese officials visited Maldives, prior to the visit of former Chinese Premier Zhu Rongi's in May 2001. The Chinese apparently have been in Maale for boosting bilateral trade and to provide assistance for infrastructure development but that’s not all about it.
The speculation since then has been that some high profile negotiation is going on for setting up a permanent Chinese Naval base in Maldives. However, Maldivian President Abdul Gayoom had scotched off such rumors way back in August 2000 on his visit to India. He categorically stated that Maldives was not entertaining any proposal of Chinese naval base since it enjoys excellent defence cooperation with India.
However, the news refused to die down and again surfaced with a report that between 2003 and 2004, China engaged two American and three European companies to conduct aerial and deep-sea surveys. The agreement with the companies was apparently to monitor the weather and magnetic response of the seabed but hidden agenda behind such surveys could not be ruled out.
The issue again becomes a hot topic of discussion after President Gyaoom's made three-day state visit to China in September 2006. Although the public stress was on economic cooperation, there was an increasing concern about China’s military-strategic ambitions in the Indian Ocean region.
Indian security sources have repeatedly been saying that ever since Maldives has leased its ‘Marao Island’ to China in 1999 for maritime traffic management there are sings that the island is also being used by the Chinese to monitor Indian and U.S. warships in the Indian Ocean, and could be developed into a submarine base in the future.
India's defense analysts are peeved about the growing Chinese- Maldives relationship. They say a base in Maldives will put China in direct confrontation with India, a prospect that daunts New Delhi, scares Southeast Asian countries and alarms the US.
It would be naive to think that India is not aware of the developments in Maldives. In fact since the Indian troops helped thwart an attack by Sri Lankan Tamil mercenaries in Maldives in 1988, India -Maldives relationship has been growing from strength to strength. Indian navy vessels patrol the water around the Maldivian archipelago and keep watch over its sea-lanes.
India and Maldives have signed a number of agreements in areas such as information technology, customs, culture, and air service. India is helping Maldives in the implementation of a number of projects under an agreement on economic and technical cooperation. India is also the largest source of manpower recruitment for Maldives.
Alongside there has been many a high profile diplomatic exchanges going on between India and Maldives. This includes Indian ex naval chief Sushil Kumar visit to Male a few years ago. This was followed by the visit of Maldives defence minister Major General Abdul Sattar Ambaree’s (the current High Commissioner to India) to New Delhi. This was reciprocated by India’s then Defense Minister George Fernandes visit to Maldives.
Since then there has been no letup in the high level contact between the two countries. India recently presented INS Tillanchang, a 260-ton fast attack craft commissioned in 2001 to Maldives. This craft is designed for quick and covert operations against smugglers, gunrunners and terrorists. India has also provided Maldives with armored cars and other military equipments. Besides, it has also trained Maldivian paratroopers in counter insurgency operations.
All theses points that India and Maldives is maintaining a fair amount of close contact with each other and the threat perception about Chinese Naval base in Maldives could be more imaginary than real.
Construction of Deepwater Harbor
The other big news from Maldives is that Gyaoom’s government has recently singed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with a Kuwaiti company to build and operate a trans-shipment port in the northern most atoll of the country.
The deep-water harbor project has been on the table since 2001when a European consortium was granted the right to build and manage a transshipment port. However, the project got delayed due to lack of proper legislature on foreign investment and land lease. The Maldives government then revoked the MoU claming that the project was not being implemented on schedule. The contract is now been granted to a Kuwaiti company whose identity is yet to be disclosed.
The construction of deep-water harbor by some third party in Maldives has raised concerns in India. Indian security analysts say that a transshipment port in such a close proximity is potential security risk to both India and the region. They argue that the UN has declared Maldives as “potential vulnerable as a point for the illegal shipment of precursor chemicals or large quantities of drugs destined for other countries.” The proposal to build a deep-water port in the north of the country is therefore a matter of grave concern to India.
Indian government has not made any comment on this development in Maldives. Indian media too seems to be occupied with every thing except Maldives. There seems to be a general consensus that India - Maldives shares a model relationship based on geographical proximity and cultural ties that’s steeped in history.
However, the necessities of the geopolitics demand India should give a fresh look to its ties with Maldives. Today, India-Maldives relationship has become crucial than ever before because the long-term economic and strategic interests of both countries are entwined in the Indian Ocean region. A slight deviation to it may have grave consequences. Therefore, all efforts should be made not to allow Maldives become a theater of another Great Game.
Syed Ali Mujtaba is a journalist based in Chennai, India. He can be contacted at syedalimujtaba@yahoo.com
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The Chinese way to offset Indian and US interests in the area.
Fun and games starts.
Should be alarming, not only for India, but also for the US since it skews it global strategic perspective.
One wonders what will be the counter stroke!
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"Some have learnt many Tricks of sly Evasion, Instead of Truth they use Equivocation, And eke it out with mental Reservation, Which is to good Men an Abomination."
I don't have to attend every argument I'm invited to.
HAKUNA MATATA
Last edited by Ray : 11-10-2007 at 01:45 AM.
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11-10-2007, 01:48 AM
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#2 (permalink)
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Postmaster General
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China may have clinched a deal with the Maldives to build a naval facility capable of hosting submarines on the island of Marao, 40 km from the capital Male. According to the Israeli website DEBKA, the deal may have been signed and sealed in May this year during Premier Zhu-Rongji's visit to Male. It will allow China to lease the island for 25 years and develop it, which means jobs for the locals. Pakistan apparently, was instrumental in 'persuading' the Maldives to lease the island to the Chinese. The island will be operational in 2010. It's not clear how India, given its excellent relations with the Maldives, allowed this deal to go through.
Intelligence
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11-10-2007, 07:57 AM
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#3 (permalink)
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Banished
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Is India even doing anything? It doesn't seem to be interested in becoming a power center in the region.
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11-10-2007, 11:42 AM
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#4 (permalink)
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China is going berserk in South Asea. India has to be more active than it has been or it will be too late. China needs to be made aware that there are costs to this policy. It is basically testing the Indian will and if it sees that it will back off.
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11-10-2007, 12:31 PM
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#5 (permalink)
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Military Professional Moderator Scotch taster
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ray
China may have clinched a deal with the Maldives to build a naval facility capable of hosting submarines on the island of Marao, 40 km from the capital Male. According to the Israeli website DEBKA, the deal may have been signed and sealed in May this year during Premier Zhu-Rongji's visit to Male. It will allow China to lease the island for 25 years and develop it, which means jobs for the locals. Pakistan apparently, was instrumental in 'persuading' the Maldives to lease the island to the Chinese. The island will be operational in 2010. It's not clear how India, given its excellent relations with the Maldives, allowed this deal to go through.
Intelligence
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Sir, DEBKA is notorrious for spreading false info. They've claimed in the past that there were 300,000 Chinese troops in Sudan and Iranian commandoes fought beside US SOF in Afghanistan wearing Commodore-64 computers.
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Chimo
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11-10-2007, 16:03 PM
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#6 (permalink)
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Banished
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Feanor
Is India even doing anything? It doesn't seem to be interested in becoming a power center in the region.
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india is encircled man. there is very little it can do.
ever heard of the " claws of the crab" theory??
china is practicing just that
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11-10-2007, 16:20 PM
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#7 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wajahat
india is encircled man. there is very little it can do.
ever heard of the "claws of the crab" theory??
china is practicing just that
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Very myopic view.
Take a step back, analyze the Indo-US defence relationship.
Now look at China, Who is encircled? China or India.
India is not still not at its optimum pace of economic growth!!! IN in the next decade will be a spectacle.
Check Maldives again and their relationship with India. They lie next to Andaman and Nicobar Islands. There can make naval presence in - Pakistan. India has enough influence in Burma and Sri Lanka.
Chinese are already surrounded by the USN, an addition of IN into that spectrum will choke PLAN.
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11-11-2007, 00:20 AM
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#8 (permalink)
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Waja,
But then crabs are excellent meat.
Eaten them?
Very tasty and soft and sweet!
On a serious note, remember that dotting the world with ships is no good. What is important in any combat is logistics and everyone forgets that.
Musharraf thought he had a whiz kid plan in Kargil, but he gave short shrift to logistics and Pakistan came a cropper!
Likewise, bases or no bases, the logistic must be uninterrupted.
Heard of the Straits of Malacca?
Heard of the 10 degree channel?
Heard of Andaman and Nicobar and the submarine pens?
Heard of Israel in Sri Lanka?
Forgotten about the US - India - Singapore - Australia - Japan naval exercise?
It was not done because these countries had extra fuel to burn before the prices skyrocketed!
Last edited by Ray : 11-11-2007 at 00:30 AM.
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11-11-2007, 00:42 AM
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#9 (permalink)
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Military Professional Moderator Scotch taster
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Adux
Very myopic view.
Take a step back, analyze the Indo-US defence relationship.
Now look at China, Who is encircled? China or India.
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I'm beginning to see what the Brigadier is seeing about China. Look closely again. Who's got the initiative? It ain't India.
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11-11-2007, 01:28 AM
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#10 (permalink)
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China nor India can attack through the land route since the mountain passes are ideal for interdiction and prevention of movement for artillery and logistics.
In the use of airpower, Tibetan plateau, being in the High Altitude restricts the payload factor for the PLAAF. Here, India has the advantage of airfields at sea level.
However, China has built roads through Myanmar so as to be able to attack India from the East, but then these roads will also permit India to do the same.
Therefore, the accent is on the Indian Ocean through which China's oil and economic effort moves to and from China. The restriction to such movement is the Straits of Malacca. Currently, China has no hopes to control the same since Singapore is pro US as also Indonesia is not too comfortable with the Communist because of historical reasons of the past.
Hence, to protect Chinese interests in the Indian Ocean, China has adopted the 'string of pearls' strategy.
Aware that the Straits of Malacca can be a serious impediment to China's thrust into the Indian Ocean, she has built a highway connecting China to Rangoon or Yangon. And likewise, the Karakorum Highway through Pakistan. China, thus, has no option but to be friends with Myanmar (Burma) and Pakistan, the shade of the regime controlling these two countries notwithstanding. And anyway, China has not displayed any sensitivity to who controls what and covers the same with the usual double talk of 'not interfering in the internal matters' of another country. A very sagacious ploy to serve self interest and further national aim and not skew it by acting as the regional policeman!
The Pakistani route into the Indian Ocean is tenacious! But the Myanmar route is not. That is the reason why the US is keen on establishing her presence in Andaman and Nicobar. It will effectively block any Chinese incursions beyond the Chinese base in Myanmar at Coco Island.
To effectively ensure that China does not have a free run to its newly acquired base at Gwadar, Pakistan and Afghanistan has to be kept on the boil so that there is no easy exit. Likewise, though India is blamed for Balochistan by Pakistan, it is a deeper game that what one realises.An independent Baluchistan and a Pakhtoonistan, diminishes the importance of Pakistan in so far as the Gwadar port is concerned as also allows the TAP pipeline to go through to bolster the flagging US economy. In such great game, time is not of essence. Patience is!
It is also of importance that the CAR is under the US influence so that, if and when required, the Uighurs can be agitated and incited so as to keep China 'busy' and also allow the domino effect to percolate into Tibet. It maybe noticed that Russia while maintain its predominance in this area is not indicating huge rancour since it also serves her purpose to keep China in check.
While China is acquiring bases around the various places in the Indian Ocean to set its Navy free of the restrictions of the Straits of Malacca, the US is ensuring that all efforts are made to ensure that such bases have no logistic back up except what is available locally.
A hurried thought of mine, but interesting times ahead!
Last edited by Ray : 11-11-2007 at 01:30 AM.
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11-11-2007, 01:40 AM
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#11 (permalink)
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Senior Contributor
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I think this is to protect its energy route rather than against India. Sure, the two countries are not going to be chums anytime soon, but in the end, China is far more concerned about US and its allies cutting its energy supply.
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11-11-2007, 01:44 AM
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#12 (permalink)
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But India is cozying up with the US and that is surely not to the comfort of China.
That sure would go into the US 'strength' to implement its global policy and reach!
If the Straits of Malacca is through, why worry about the sea lanes for economy being disrupted?
There is more to it than what meets the eye, both from the Chinese or US standpoint!
That is why our Commies, the agents of China, are so against the Indo US strategic partnership!
They are the snakes in the womb.
They were against India's Independence since Russia was with the Allies, they were against India in 1962 and now they will ensure India fails again!
Such vermin as Indian Communists can never be seen elsewhere!
Last edited by Ray : 11-11-2007 at 02:08 AM.
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11-11-2007, 02:15 AM
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#13 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ray
Such vermin as Indian Communists can never be seen elsewhere!
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You need to talk to Bluesman about Democrats 
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In the realm of spirit, seek clarity; in the material world, seek utility.
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11-11-2007, 02:30 AM
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#14 (permalink)
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Pari,
You are lucky that you have not seen Commies and so is Bluesman.
In Nandigram, they have taken over the area and practically made it a state of their own and beyond the jurisdiction of the State Govt, which is Communist itself!
Democrats, in comparison, would be cherubs and angels! 
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11-11-2007, 04:06 AM
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#15 (permalink)
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Ray sir,your post#10 was really eye opening for me. It provided a new perspective. Thanks.
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