aussie

How do you guys feel the conflict between China and Taiwan pans out when Taiwan tries to declare independence..

Think about it and tell me your theory???

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"I do not know with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones." Albert Einstein

Tronic

Hmmm... exciting scenario...

Most likely, China will start off by bombing the crap out of Taiwan, well... lets say "trying" to bomb the crap out of Taiwan. Taiwan will most likely, with U.S. help carry out precision strikes against Chinese mainland to weaken any Chinese offensive troop movement. Targeting supply lines and other command centres would be a start. Probably won't be too tough with America using their B-2 Bombers. Taiwan without American help is just unthinkable as Taiwan would probably then just get slaughtered by China.

Officer of Engineers

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Chimo

aussie

If the USA supports Taiwan how will China act against the USA????

Tronic

China wouldn't really want a war with the U.S. and vis-versa. Although if tensions do get high, China can easily damage the U.S. economy by cutting all trade to the U.S., being U.S.'s second largest trading partner after Canada.

aussie

Very interesting cutting the trade supply to the USA.
In this scenario i am a firm believer that the USA will leave Taiwan on their own.
And yes Taiwan will be severely hammered.

Officer of Engineers

In the overall scheme of things, the Americans would barely notice China stop trading.

Top Ten Countries with which the U.S. Trades
For the month of October 2004
The values given are for Imports and Exports added together.
These Countries represent 68.29% of U.S. Imports, and 65.49% of U.S. Exports in goods.

Year To Date
Total in Total in
Billions Billions
Country Name of U.S. $ of U.S. $

Canada 39.76 368.72
Mexico 24.65 220.89
China 22.66 188.06
Japan 16.41 152.43
Federal Republic of Germany 10.01 89.51
United Kingdom 7.10 67.69
Korea, South 6.20 59.98
France 5.20 43.16
Taiwan 4.98 46.38
Malaysia 3.58 32.24

Top Ten Countries with which the U.S. Trades

Officer of Engineers

The Chinese strategy currently is to delay the Americans as long as possible until the ground action on Taiwan is settled one way or the other.

Bacchanalian

HI there

Interesting to read your exchanges. I am a Brit who has lived in Taiwan for years.

There will be no way because China will subsume Taiwan by waiting until their economies are so intertwined, and the people of Taiwan realize that it is not in thieir interest to resist the flow...

The US will therefore not have to intervene. The Chinese live by what works, not by what is "right" in terms of high principle. They don't rock boats when they don't have to. Accordingly, the pscyological need for Taiwanese to separate themselves from China properly is too weak to cause them to pay the associated costs.

even now, Taiwan doesn't have international representation where it matters. They aren't even using their own name in sports events, usually going by "chinese Taipei"... you see the will for independence just insn't strong enough. In the West, we 'd die for that. The Chinese would never die for anything so abstract. (Note, by Chinese I mean ethnic Chinese - those living in Taiwan)

Very best to you

Bacchanalian

Officer of Engineers

Maybe not the Taiwan residents but those living on the Mainland have more than once do mass insanity to the extreme. The Great Leap Forward, the Great Proliteriate Cultrural Revolution, Tien An Men Square, the 100 Flowers Campaign, ... and all those little stupid revolutions (slaughtering all dogs in Beijing simply because they MIGHT carry rabies), handling of the SARS crisis.

Those living on Taiwan may not want to fight and die something so abstract as freedom but they may have no choice in the matter. They may be fighting for their lives.

Bacchanalian

I agree with you that they would fight for their lives. But that won't arise because they won't declare independence, and so China will not invade. They will not invade because they can achieve the same aims more cheaply by just waiting it out. Taiwan is China's biggest inward investor now.

B

Officer of Engineers

You're assuming sanity on the Mainland's part. I've seen its opposite on more than one occasion.

Tronic

Errmm... in your stats it shows China as America's third largest trading partner, lol. Then why wouldn't America notice if China stopped trading???

Officer of Engineers

Because, you idiot, do the math. China makes up 15% of US's trade. They will notice but they will hardly go broke.

Tronic

Suddenly loosing 15% of trade is hard on the economy, you dumbass.