astralis

triple c,

yes, certainly. no one, least of me, is going to argue with you that the CCP has suddenly embraced complete freedom of speech etc. what i am arguing about is the RELATIVE change here, where CCP has allowed for freedoms that would have been unimaginable even 15 years ago. using some of your above examples as comparisons, 15-25 years ago, that professor wouldn't have been able to go out of the country, let alone to taiwan.

heck, 30-35 years ago, if you were a professor (let alone western medieval history professor), you would probably have been sent off to re-educaiton camp.

not all. the CCP is not all that huge. it has ~70 million members, with the vast majority of this population just "CCP-in-name-only", aka they only got the membership for the connections, to angle for government contracts/better business deals. that's not large enough for such in-depth community spying, not to say going down to the village-level.

if the CCP pushes hard enough for something, it'll get its way. judicial reform is slow, unfortunately. as for the PLA crackdown, funny thing is, the large majority of peasants consider the CCP as a shield against local official corruption. for these peasants, the CCP is guilty, not of TOO MUCH control, but too little.

it's kept a tight lid, but that doesn't mean people have forgotten or even forgiven (if they had, then the CCP wouldn't care enough to put that tight lid on). besides...there's commemorations just about every year in hong kong, and the CCP does NOT do that great a job at censorship- in china, many internet cafes come acquipped with anti-censorship software

Ray

This will surely put China's back up that Taiwan has a separate entity and a separate nation.

It will seriously affect the business ties being built up and the Taiwanese businessmen will not be too happy over this issue.

One wonders if there will be much backing for Taiwan;s entrance into the UN as a separate nation.

I wonder what will be the backing to change the Constitution.

__________________


"Some have learnt many Tricks of sly Evasion, Instead of Truth they use Equivocation, And eke it out with mental Reservation, Which is to good Men an Abomination."

I don't have to attend every argument I'm invited to.

HAKUNA MATATA

astralis

ray,

chen shui-bian's been calling for that since prior to coming into office. the taiwanese business community (and the chinese merchants they deal with) obviously doesn't like the boat being shaken, but they're used to it- life goes on.

to the first point, none, which taiwan freely admits. in the effort to get into the UN, it has changed its name from "republic of china" to "taiwan", and obviously this matters not a whit.

as for the backing to change the constitution, very little, past hard-core supporters of chen shui-bian's own party (as well as even more extremist greens). the vast majority of the taiwanese populace is for the status quo, which changing the constitution assuredly isn't.

Triple C

Astralis,

We are seeing the same ground facts but arriving to different conclusions. The way I see trends in China is that the CCP is shoring up its defenses against rising dissent and the fundemental lack of legitimacy of its reign. The CCP by not conceding to the opposition is bound to increase the violence of its death when the time comes.

The CCP party is not large enough to claim a significant portion of the population, but this is true for most communist totalitarian regimes regardless of their political strength. The part of China where change and contact with the west is strongest is also where the party infiltration is the deepest. In the country side the communist officials are still extremely powerful and is not bellow using state violence to get what they want. They are also perfectedly capable to buy off their opponents when they choose to do so. The party, precisely because it holds the key to economic success, enjoy success in domesticating its middle class. Straying from Mao's teachings doesn't quite equate to loosening its grip on ideological control. I would agrue Nationalism instead of classic Marxist-Lenism, combined with economic growth, are the pillars of the CCP, and as long as CCP is able to maintain its claim that it is the guarantor of both, I do not see a weakening of the CCP position.

You said, "if the CCP pushes hard enough for something, it'll get its way. judicial reform is slow, unfortunately. as for the PLA crackdown, funny thing is, the large majority of peasants consider the CCP as a shield against local official corruption. for these peasants, the CCP is guilty, not of TOO MUCH control, but too little."

This is a perfectly correct observation. That does not mean the CCP is affraid of throwing its weight behind corrup officials against the farmers. The question ought to be raised as to how many times they can get away from this before they trigger wider dissent. Tsar Nicholas the Last was known as "Uncle Nicholas" and "Friend of the People" before his cossacks decide to shoot down protestors in Moscow. This had happened in China more than once in the countryside, and so far the CCP has been lucky and good.

I will have to disagree on the Chinese view of the 6/4 incident here. The Chinese I personally know or talk to seem to view those events strongly along official lines in private conversations. They seem and profess to buy the government's claim that the western media is foundementally biased against the Chinese regime and used propoganda to engineer the illusion of 6/4 Massacre. One may very well entertain different hopes, but observable evidence for me has been suggesting strongly that the government is very successful in stifling the incident.

In regard to Taiwanese sentiments... as a Taiwanese I have to say that policy trends in Taiwan is quite mercurial and momentus changes happen very quickly. The revision of the constituition in any event has been strongly supported by the DDP (Chen's party) old guards, and a similiar pro-Chinese approach by KMT (Nationalist) fanatics is bound to accelerate the speed of political radicalization. Calls to revise the constituition is going to persist unless the KMT party win the presidential election--in which case all bets are off. If DDP wins, formal proclaimation of independence remains to be highly unlikely. Even among DDP hard-core cadres, the policy of independence and efforts in joining the UN have remained strategic gesturing to counter-balance China's increasingly aggressive stance against Taiwan. My feeling is that, if Taiwan's security position in real terms improves, Taiwan is likely to be more moderate in its policies towards China.

astralis

triple C,

i would disagree. CCP connection is NOT "essential", otherwise we would see a lot more party members. it is however PREFERABLE. in this way, it is quite similar to japan's LDP of the 70s and 80s (and to a large extent even now).

as for the country village level, buying off the opposition isn't a new technique only restricted to autocracies shades of EU and US farm subsidies. in fact, the CCP prefers to buy off as oppose to bully, because the loyalty one gets from the former exceeds that of the latter. and in these cases, "buying off" means protecting the village against the corrupt local bureaucrats.

why yes, it would strengthen the party. in fact, the CCP loves these anti-corruption drives, because it's a good way to earn points with the population while offing some of the initator's (inner-party) political rivals. in fact, the village democracy experiment, also paradoxically, strengthens the the CCP: the elected village headman has more incentive to do good by his constituency, and is generally more amenable to central control, than either the local bureaucrat- or in quite a few cases- NO control at all.

however, these tactics have been proven to increase CCP legitimacy. far from "uncle nicholas" ignoring his people and brutalizing them, the CCP- especially under the technocrats following the death of deng xiaoping- have tried to be at least somewhat responsive to the people's demands, knowing full well that their continued rule is at stake. so the funny thing is, in their search for legitimacy, the CCP rulers are starting to find out that now, things cut both ways.

well, -i- generally think the party acted in the interest of the chinese nation (especially so after the no-compromise extremists took control during the latter portion of the student protests), albeit in an overly harsh and remarkably clumsy action.

to be sure, though, i don't find this argument particularly compelling. using an educational system to teach a warped view of history doesn't particularly demonstrate the "strength" of a state. in fact, most states have this- that's how nationalism came to be, with each state teaching its children a version of history that is obviously biased and in quite a few instances falsified.

for example, just taking american history into account, i certainly wasn't taught in (american, after i moved to the US) school, that the boston massacre was in fact precipitated by a bunch of hecklers throwing large chunks of ice with rocks, purposefully trying to incite trouble with the british.

the weakness of the CCP can be seen in the actions of the CCP itself. if they didn't feel themselves weak, they would not have invited capitalists into the party. if they didn't feel themselves weak, they wouldn't be playing up "confucian values", nor would they bother censoring the internet.

however, given the direction the party has moved in, in the last 15 years, i think it has demonstrated that they have some understanding that what was acceptable then is no longer acceptable now. and the definition of what is acceptable will continue to change.

astralis

triple C,

i see you edited your post even while i was replying to it. but nevertheless, my answers in the post immediately previous remain applicable. let me tack on a quick reply to several points in particular, though:

well, you have to understand these "communist officials" don't care much about ideology or even official policy one way or another. most of them are in it to milk the system for the money.

as for the party holding the key to economic success, that is overstating the role of the party. there are still plenty of chinese who are economically succeeding, and pushing forward the chinese economy, who don't belong in the CCP.

i completely agree. however, as history has demonstrated, nationalism doesn't hold up forever. once the middle-class becomes large enough, they will start demanding power for itself. we see these cases ranging from france, germany, the US, and even japan (taisho democracy).

dude, you don't need to tell me about taiwanese politics being mercurial. if i'm ever bored in taiwan, i just need to watch the gov't in action.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ObXo-vvtS7E

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pnR-BAhA2WE&NR



but for all the shenanigans, though, i personally think that it doesn't matter if taiwan's security position improves or not (and it won't). every taiwanese president, chen shui-bian included, knows that war with china will be disastrous for taiwan- victory or not. CSB can call for revising all he likes- the populace of taiwan isn't going to stand for it. in the end, the populace's overwhelming tendency towards status quo will force a moderation, whether the president likes it (blue) or not (green).

anyways...

so you're taiwanese too? where from? i'm from taipei...nice to see another taiwanese on this board.

Officer of Engineers

Tripple C,

I'm curious as to your views. Would the Chinese population tolerate another 1st 1979 Sino-Vietnam War in which at least 30,000 PLA soldiers died to prove a point?

That question has merit as to how much actual control the CCP actually has.

__________________
Chimo

Triple C

Atralis,

"well, you have to understand these 'communist officials' don't care much about ideology or even official policy one way or another. most of them are in it to milk the system for the money. "

Sure. I just don't think CCP will go gentle into that good night. Though I dearly hope for the otherwise.

"so you're taiwanese too? where from? i'm from taipei..."

Same same. That's not my current location though.

"I'm curious as to your views. Would the Chinese population tolerate another 1st 1979 Sino-Vietnam War in which at least 30,000 PLA soldiers died to prove a point?"

30,000 PLA dead does sound mighty serious. My guess is no--the modern CCP is not nearly as powerful as it was in Mao's time. I am not disputing that--I am just speculating how the CCP will make its exit from the stage.

Taihang

"China vs Taiwan" has two major components:

1) "the rich and the poor"
2) "the superior and the inferior"

Ideology? Not much.

PandaRoo

It's the best that there wouldn't be a fight.
Well, at least before I make sure it doesn't affect me.
That Brit guy was right,
I'm not gonna just die for a bloody political point, whatever that is.
Not because the point itself is so abstract or profound that it's beyond my understanding, well, when I also understand how to do a Percutaneous Transluminal Coronary Angioplasty (PTCA), but I honestly think my life is worth more than that.

I can challenge all the Kung-fu or Karate masters in Shanghai and get bashed up for good,
but fighting or even dying for such a reason is really lame.

I personally hope that they can maintain the status quo, or otherwise whoever love the fightings so much can devote themselves to it. Good for them!

__________________
Going to the gym is not a sign of being shallow!
Get over it~:rolleyes:

wangrui961

Almost everyone in China will fight for taking Taiwan back ,young and old ,rich and poor ,strong and weak, men and women.

Jay

fight with what? empty heads?

__________________
A grain of wheat eclipsed the sun of Adam !!

wangrui961

even with empty heads , we will fight . and we are not just have empty heads.

PandaRoo

I don't think that would include me.
Glad you used the word "almost", thanks.

I consider myself a Chinese but I'm not going to fight.

My life is worth more than Taiwan, period.

PandaRoo

You'll get your answer when that happens.

What we are saying here would hardly alter the answer, be that contempt or compliment.

I, however, genuinely hope that doesn't happen.

Anyway, at least we've got people like Wangrui to fight.