JohnFlint1985

I was a student of a couple of very good professors and modern historians Richard Pipes and Bernard Lewis. Both dealt with very different aspects of world history, but never-the-less their view on the history and politics was surprisingly close and almost the same. According to them 21 century is going to be a century of a conflict (hopefully not military one) between different human civilizations for the control of resources, earth hegemony and domination, space exploration and colonization of planets. As much as I want to believe that there is such a thing as brotherly love in this world - I still believe that it is not enough and their predictions are quite on target. I am showing here a map and a scheme of their theory. Let's keep this discussion civil and interesting.
Please don't take this map as an 100% correct version of upcoming events. It is wrong in few details but it is right in general.



Western civilization, centered on Western Europe (particularly the European Union) and North America, but also including other European-derived countries such as Australia and New Zealand. Huntington also includes the Pacific Islands, East Timor, Suriname, French Guiana, and northern and central Philippines. Whether Latin America and the former member states of the Soviet Union are included, or are instead their own separate civilizations, will be an important future consideration for those regions, according to Huntington.

The Orthodox world of Armenia, Belarus, Bulgaria, Georgia, Macedonia, Moldova, Montenegro, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Republika Srpska and Ukraine.

Latin America. It's a hybrid of the western world and the local indigenous people. May be considered a part of Western civilization, though it has slightly distinct social and political structures from Europe and North America. Many people of the Southern Cone, however, regard themselves as full members of the Western civilization.

The Muslim world of Central Asia, North Africa, Southwest Asia, Afghanistan, Albania, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Indonesia, Malaysia, Maldives, Pakistan, Somalia, Mindanao, and parts of India.

Hindu civilization, located chiefly in India, Nepal, and culturally adhered to by the global Non-resident Indians and People of Indian Origin, the diaspora.

The Sinic civilization of China, Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, and Vietnam. This group also includes the Chinese diaspora, especially in relation to Southeast Asia.

Japan, considered a hybrid of Chinese civilization and older Altaic patterns.

The civilization of Sub-Saharan Africa is considered as a possible 8th civilization by Huntington.

The Buddhist areas of Bhutan, Cambodia, Laos, Mongolia, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Arunachal Pradesh, Kalmykia, parts of Nepal, parts of Siberia, and the Tibetan government-in-exile are identified as separate from other civilizations, but Huntington believes that they do not constitute a major civilization in the sense of international affairs.

Instead of belonging to one of the "major" civilizations, Ethiopia, Haiti, and
Turkey are labeled as "Lone" countries. Israel could be considered a unique state with its own civilization, Huntington writes, but one which is extremely similar to the West. Huntington also believes that former British colonies in the Caribbean constitute a distinct entity.

In some cases, the Sinic, Hindu, Buddhist and Japonic civilizations are merged into a single civilization called Eastern World.

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Shamus

John,I am no geo-political pundit by any stretch of the imagination but it appears to me as if the U.S. is making a strong attempt to court India as a partner in the Far East to counter the growing strength of the PRC.That would lead to some distinct changes on this map would it not?

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wkllaw

I doubt the 21st century will be a time of rivalry betweeen the different human civilisations, in order for that to happen, we will need for nationalism to die down a bit.

Competition for resources will always be around, its going to be more pronounced with the resources increasingly dwindling.

I personally believe that the Sinic civilisation or the eastern world is moving towards Western civilisation, they will still retain their own culture, but the people are being influenced by western thought.

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Parihaka

Personally I'd pull most of Europe out and add it to Russia. I see a socialist Europe in the near future.
And yes, I'd agree with Shamus as regards India.

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Ray

John,

Nationalism and subnationalism (or tribal identity, if you wish) seems to be on the rise in Asia and Africa.

What is your slot regarding pan Islamism (the ummah and the Caliphate) in this world map?

What about Tibet?

What is the slot for the US and the European civilisation in this matrix?

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ExNavyAmerican

I think there will be a clash of civilizations, but I think it will be idealogical.

But another thing I've noticed is a rise, as Ray said, in subnationalism throughout the world. The world is becoming more segregated. But ideaologies are becoming more hostile to each other.

Personally, I think the future looks pretty bleak, but I don't want to be a doomsday person.

Of course, I'm not a geo-political scientist, and this is just an opinion.

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ExNavyAmerican

JohnFlint;

I don't really think there is much identity between Europe and North Ameroca. One thing that is submit is that, since Anglophone nations are already distinctive in culture and language (of course), that they merge into such a civilization as you're describing here.

Feanor

You mean pull most of Russia out and add it to Europe? Because at this rate Russia won't be much of a world power. Just wait until the last nukes rust away.

JohnFlint1985

Well - India is a distinct entity here and also a civilization of it's own. So USA and India will create some sort of a block in a future. Formal or Informal.
But India is not a western civilization per say - it is a friendly and close to it, but a separate one. So in this case the map is right.

JohnFlint1985

I think I have to explain my personal understanding of this theory.
I am talking from a position of an American and not world so my opinion is obviously biased. So please bare with me.

In 21 century there will be a few major threats to USA around the world.

1. I think China will certainly be a major one: economically, military and politically. I am not sure if ideology will play a role , but China will certainly try ti reassert it's positions in Pacific and thus create tensions with the rest of the countries over there.

2. I think Fundamental Islam in different countries will continue it's rise and will require a lot of commitment, money and brains to deal with. It is not just a religious revival but also socio-economic one, so to counter it we are required to pull some new ways and ideas from our side. Which so far have not emerged in my opinion.

3. Europe is having a major transition right now. But I think it will only lead to more problems. Europe is becoming socialistic, demographically dying, rid of religion and ideology continent. There is no sense of direction and sense of alliance over there. Europeans are much more concerned with their comfort level and social benefits than anything else. So in my mind they are soft and weak in too many respects. USA is seen nothing but culture-less bully and not as a friend. It is of course because New Europe only semi ideology is a Neo-Gaullist French ideas of a "Third Pole" which will be between USA and USSR. USSR is no more , but the "Third Pole " is very much alive and pulled other European countries into it's ideology.

4. Russia - Is a sick man of Europe and world: politically, population wise, disease wise and military wise. Russia is also dying demographically. It has the fastest in the world AIDS epidemic (faster than in Africa). Men have an average life expectancy 58.6 years. Country has 70% abortion rate. It's fertility rate is 1,2 - which is substantially lower than reproduction rate. On top of everything Russia's neighbors are dreaming of a day when they will be able to claim it's resources. It's military is ridden with problems and is not considered any serious threat by any means. Even nuclear forces are slowly rusting away. One other "small" thing. The only regions in Russia which show demographic growth are Islamic regions. So we can see an Islamic Power instead of Christian over there in 40 years time.

This is my theory in a very short form.

JohnFlint1985

Tibet is going to be a small concern for China and India and will be one of the minor reasons I think India will be more Western Oriented than Chinese oriented. It will not be a major point of rivalry.
Nationalism in smaller African countries is a very small problem comparing to huge ones we will see in my opinion. I mean it in Africa.
Asia will not see as much fragmentation as Africa may see but it faces a few unsolved problems. One that is right on the top of the pile is Kurdistan. Another is falling apart Pakistan. Certain problems remain in Central Asia. And finally Caucasus mountains regions as a whole is a huge ethnic problem.

wkllaw

John, Europe seems to be gaining some ideology that's a backlash against the immigrants who refuse to assimilate, do you have a opinion of that?

I believe Russia will regain their power somewhat, they will never go back to the status of the USSR, but they've done pretty well against the Dutch disease and I can imagine them becoming a economic power, not as great as the Americans by far, but a economic power nevertheless. The demography seems to be turning around a bit. I think Putin's efforts particularly with the young will have a effect in reviving the birthrate somewhat in the future.

JohnFlint1985

All of this - is a big "maybe".

Europe is so into it's own little problems and it's own comfort that it is hard to see them being anything different. For 50 years they were protected and shielded by Americans against USSR - so their will to fight for what is right, their ability to grasp the situation is as low as that can be. I was very surprised once I hear these thoughts from a lot of Western Europeans. Their idea is to create a Unified Europe. And in theory it is a good idea. But in reality? IN my mind it is weak and decadent. People are not prepared and not interested to stand up and say what is known to all of us, but which is not politically correct to say today. So are their governments. It started as a De Gaulle private hatred against USA and it turned into Unite Europe ideology. Please understand it is not about Iraq. It is much deeper and almost unthinkable. So in my mind NATO is we know it today is falling apart due to complete lack of interest and hostility from European members. Once Soviet Union was alive and well and was targeting Europe they reluctantly followed in the same direction. Right now - this cooperation is dead.

Russia may regain some if it's power - but their territory is so huge that to effectively control it they need 3 times bigger population and 10 times bigger economy. Getting so many new people is a very big task over there. So far their numbers fell from 149 million in 1995 to 141 million in 2000 and is projected to be at 132 million in 2010 - and this is with territory roughly twice as big as USA. Please understand that to get more Chinese or Muslim immigrants inside Russia is not a solution - it is their doom, so this option is out. In other words if Russian families will not start making 3-4 kids per family -I don't know how else to fix it.
As of now their only strength is oil and gas - and this is it. Once and if it is gone - they are in a big black hole and they know it. But instead of pulling closer to the west and trying to find their place with the wrest of western civilization they keep pressing their differences with us and their dislike of the west. So in my mind their future is very grim indeed.

wkllaw

I understand your position, but there are large amounts of immigrants coming to Europe and this is causing a backlash and reviving a ideology that was once belonging to a fringe group. I asking your opinion of this ideology that has emerged that's against the immigrants?


I understand that the immigrants aren't the solution, but Putin has been making quite a bit of effort to convince the young to have more children. He created a summer camp for kids that actually encouraged having sex amongst teenagers and I can imagine the population stabilizing, maybe not in 5 years, but I think it should stabilize in a few decades.

Like I said, Russia has handled the Dutch Disease of oil and gas pretty well and they are pushing to diversify their industry. I'm not sure how much success they're having, but they certainly are doing better than the countries in OPEC.

glyn

[quote=JohnFlint1985;423789]All of this - is a big "maybe".

Europe is so into it's own little problems and it's own comfort that it is hard to see them being anything different. For 50 years they were protected and shielded by Americans against USSR - so their will to fight for what is right, their ability to grasp the situation is as low as that can be. I was very surprised once I hear these thoughts from a lot of Western Europeans. Their idea is to create a Unified Europe. And in theory it is a good idea. But in reality? IN my mind it is weak and decadent. People are not prepared and not interested to stand up and say what is known to all of us, but which is not politically correct to say today. So are their governments

Utter bilge, and insulting with it!
You are in thrall to two academics. Let me remind you (if you ever knew it in the first place - which I rather doubt) that in the 1890s academics confidently predicted that Londons traffic would virtually grind to a halt and be entirely taken with bringing in hay and fodder for all the horses and in taking out the manure they had created. These academics were very highly regarded, especially by other academics (ever noticed how incestuous they seem to be?). People were worried by the prospect in much the same way as people are worried with climate change today. These fellows had masses of papers that they had consulted and all the evidence clearly pointed to London being brought to its knees.
I have a little question for you and your heroes. Did it come to a sticky halt? NO, IT DID NOT!

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