China vis-à-vis Taiwan - Page 8

supergreek · 01-06-2008, 07:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gunnut

China might appear to be bigger but can it squeeze all its resources in such a small theater? Would you like to abandon all your other borders to concentrate on a small opponent?

Taiwan only has 1 front. China has more than 1.

who would attack china if china was busy in war with taiwan.

HKDan · 01-06-2008, 07:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by supergreek

who would attack china if china was busy in war with taiwan.

Nobody, probably. But it would be a great time for separatists in Xinjiang and Tibet to start acting up. China also has a couple of borders, especially India and Vietnam, that need to be watched all of the time. There is no way that China could focus all of its resources on Taiwan.

HKDan · 01-06-2008, 07:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gunnut

You have rich friends. Ordinary people in Taiwan don't have such an escape plan.

Fair enough, but the reason that I posted that is that I get the feeling that Taiwan doesn't have the same sort of national commitment to its defense that say South Korea or Israel might have. Even with conscription lowered to 12 months now(am I right about this?), people are still avoiding it because they dont think its important.

supergreek · 01-06-2008, 07:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HKDan

Nobody, probably. But it would be a great time for separatists in Xinjiang and Tibet to start acting up. China also has a couple of borders, especially India and Vietnam, that need to be watched all of the time. There is no way that China could focus all of its resources on Taiwan.

china does not need all of its resorces only a fraction

**Officer of Engineers** · 01-06-2008, 12:25 PM

100 miles of water - game, set, match to Taiwan.

ace16807 · 01-06-2008, 14:28 PM

Chances are, China will probably try to land in multiple areas. I don't think it'd be out of their reach to attempt an eastern shore landing along with several along the west coast. I suppose they want as many possible troops on the island in the shortest amount of time. The fact that Taiwan is so small and an island basically takes away China's numerical superiority. It more comes down to strategy, logistics, and quality. I'm not sure about current military leaders in each country, so I won't go into that. Taiwan is fighting on home soil, so they'd have the advantage of logistics. Quality, well. I think Taiwan wins in that one.

And China won't cover Taiwan in missile strikes. That would cause a hell of a lot of countries to get really mad at them. Massive civilian casualties is one thing you never want to inflict in a war nowadays.

**Officer of Engineers** · 01-06-2008, 14:34 PM

*** sigh ***

CURRENTLY, the PLA can MAXIMUM deliver 30,000 troops within a 72 hour period. The RoCA can hit any beach 3 brigades within two hours notice. Within 24 hours, mass 100,000 troops and within 7 days, 400,000 troops.

Ray · 01-06-2008, 14:48 PM

Taiwan centric China can be distracted in Xinjiang and Tibet.

One should think that the US is poodle-faking and toothless.

Her interest in Afghanistan, Pakistan and the CAR is not merely for oil or squeezing Russia's soft underbelly!

ace16807 · 01-06-2008, 15:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers

*** sigh ***

CURRENTLY, the PLA can MAXIMUM deliver 30,000 troops within a 72 hour period. The RoCA can hit any beach 3 brigades within two hours notice. Within 24 hours, mass 100,000 troops and within 7 days, 400,000 troops.

Sorry, I'm a tad bit unclear to whom you are referring to. You're saying the RoCA can deliver 3 brigades to any beach location within 2 hours, then have 100,000 troops there within 24 hours, then 400,000 in 7 days right? (Just clarifying. First time I read it I thought you were referring to the PLA being able to put the 100,000 troops in 24 hours and so on but then it didn't make any sense.)

**Officer of Engineers** · 01-06-2008, 15:55 PM

At present, PLA sea lift capability to Taiwan is limited to a corps. The 15th Airborne Corps would add in another two regiments or so but would be dropped at the company level rather than battalion or regiment.

The RoCA always have 3 brigades on standby. They can react within 2 hours. The RoCA also have 3 regforce corps that are tasked for immediate defence. They would need 24 hours to properly mass at the proper locations depending on where the PLA hit.

Within 7 days, the RoCA has full mobilization plans with their active reserves which is numbered at 400,000.

ace16807 · 01-06-2008, 16:07 PM

Do you have numbers for the RoCA's entire reserve force in general? I'm assuming in the case of a Chinese invasion, the entire reserve force would be mobilized.

**Officer of Engineers** · 01-06-2008, 16:20 PM

Taiwanmilitary.org :: View Forum - Original Articles

gunnut · 01-06-2008, 17:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HKDan

Fair enough, but the reason that I posted that is that I get the feeling that Taiwan doesn't have the same sort of national commitment to its defense that say South Korea or Israel might have. Even with conscription lowered to 12 months now(am I right about this?), people are still avoiding it because they dont think its important.

Maybe, maybe not. I'm not quite sure. But you can bet dollars to donuts that as a society gets richer the committment of everyday citizens to a mandatory military service will get lower. We are observing that trend in Israel. People are less tolerant now when the military wants to requisition their trucks and SUVs for official duty. Given a few more years, you might see you Israelis escape the country to avoid the draft.

HistoricalDavid · 01-06-2008, 18:05 PM

How about this: how will the CCP's domestic fortunes fare during and after a fight? Or is this not answerable without discussing the lead-up scenario?

**Officer of Engineers** · 01-06-2008, 22:31 PM

If they win, nothing. If not, Tienamen Square would look like a walk in the park.

01-06-2008, 12:25 PM	#110 (permalink)
Officer of Engineers *Military Professional* Moderator Scotch taster Join Date: 08-06-03 Posts: 15,915 Country:	100 miles of water - game, set, match to Taiwan. __________________ Chimo

01-06-2008, 14:48 PM	#113 (permalink)
Ray Postmaster General *Military Professional* Join Date: 08-20-03 Posts: 26,136 Country:	Taiwan centric China can be distracted in Xinjiang and Tibet. One should think that the US is poodle-faking and toothless. Her interest in Afghanistan, Pakistan and the CAR is not merely for oil or squeezing Russia's soft underbelly! __________________ "Some have learnt many Tricks of sly Evasion, Instead of Truth they use Equivocation, And eke it out with mental Reservation, Which is to good Men an Abomination." I don't have to attend every argument I'm invited to. HAKUNA MATATA

01-06-2008, 18:05 PM	#119 (permalink)
HistoricalDavid Distant Deeps or Skies *Senior Contributor* Join Date: 07-19-05 Location: North London, UK Posts: 2,006 Country:	How about this: how will the CCP's domestic fortunes fare during and after a fight? Or is this not answerable without discussing the lead-up scenario? __________________ HD Ready?

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01-06-2008, 14:28 PM	#111 (permalink)
ace16807 Regular Join Date: 01-01-08 Location: TN Posts: 77 Country:	Chances are, China will probably try to land in multiple areas. I don't think it'd be out of their reach to attempt an eastern shore landing along with several along the west coast. I suppose they want as many possible troops on the island in the shortest amount of time. The fact that Taiwan is so small and an island basically takes away China's numerical superiority. It more comes down to strategy, logistics, and quality. I'm not sure about current military leaders in each country, so I won't go into that. Taiwan is fighting on home soil, so they'd have the advantage of logistics. Quality, well. I think Taiwan wins in that one. And China won't cover Taiwan in missile strikes. That would cause a hell of a lot of countries to get really mad at them. Massive civilian casualties is one thing you never want to inflict in a war nowadays.

01-06-2008, 14:34 PM	#112 (permalink)
Officer of Engineers *Military Professional* Moderator Scotch taster Join Date: 08-06-03 Posts: 15,915 Country:	* sigh * CURRENTLY, the PLA can MAXIMUM deliver 30,000 troops within a 72 hour period. The RoCA can hit any beach 3 brigades within two hours notice. Within 24 hours, mass 100,000 troops and within 7 days, 400,000 troops.

01-06-2008, 15:55 PM	#115 (permalink)
Officer of Engineers *Military Professional* Moderator Scotch taster Join Date: 08-06-03 Posts: 15,915 Country:	At present, PLA sea lift capability to Taiwan is limited to a corps. The 15th Airborne Corps would add in another two regiments or so but would be dropped at the company level rather than battalion or regiment. The RoCA always have 3 brigades on standby. They can react within 2 hours. The RoCA also have 3 regforce corps that are tasked for immediate defence. They would need 24 hours to properly mass at the proper locations depending on where the PLA hit. Within 7 days, the RoCA has full mobilization plans with their active reserves which is numbered at 400,000.

01-06-2008, 16:07 PM	#116 (permalink)
ace16807 Regular Join Date: 01-01-08 Location: TN Posts: 77 Country:	Do you have numbers for the RoCA's entire reserve force in general? I'm assuming in the case of a Chinese invasion, the entire reserve force would be mobilized.

01-06-2008, 16:20 PM	#117 (permalink)
Officer of Engineers *Military Professional* Moderator Scotch taster Join Date: 08-06-03 Posts: 15,915 Country:	Taiwanmilitary.org :: View Forum - Original Articles

01-06-2008, 22:31 PM	#120 (permalink)
Officer of Engineers *Military Professional* Moderator Scotch taster Join Date: 08-06-03 Posts: 15,915 Country:	If they win, nothing. If not, Tienamen Square would look like a walk in the park.

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