Officer of Engineers

Captain Stephen Miles, aka Desperado 6, is of the opinion that the RoCA would fold like a deck of cards. His reasoning is that the Taiwanese MOD has issued statements to the belief that they cannot win. In their last exercise, they've stated the best the PLA can do is a Pyhrric victory ... meaning that the PLA can win, not exactly the kind of message you want to send to the troops.

The one thing the RoCA is lacking is leadership. They're not geared for war. They're not prepared for war. After some 50 years of peace, there is a belief that if the PLA has not come, they're not coming at all. Military competence has given way to poltical stooges in the RoCA.

Despite all of this, this does not mean that there will not be a fight. Capt Miles have pointed the way. The fight will be on the beaches. Nothing gains confidence like victory. Nothing smashes morale like defeat. If the PLA manages to penetrate the beaches, then I suspect the RoCA will collapse. There is no one of true leadership skills in the RoCA. Unlike the PLA who has Generals Cao and Bao.

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gunnut

Ah, very good sir.

My dad is of the opinion that ROCA might put up at most a token defense and then give up like ARVN.

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ace16807

I think the ROCA will give a hell of a defense, partly because it means a lot more than it did in '49. Between the period that they fled to now, the population is much more patriotic than they were 50 some odd years before. In truth, if China wanted to invade Taiwan, they cold very well do it, but the cost of doing so would most likely deter them from trying. If Taiwan is going down, they will go down hard.

Not to mention, it is incredibly hard to make an amphibious landing on the coast. They PLA would hit the coast, which is difficult in the first place, (Who was it that said have you seen the defenses they have) then they would immediately hit mountains, and I do mean mountains. Not to mention, the entire coastline seems to be geared for defense, (I'm currently visiting Taiwan, so my memory of the coast is pretty fresh). I was along the eastern coast, and I specifically remembered identifying how it seems every bit of the land between the coast and the mountains could easily be adapted for defense. If D-day is considered a difficult landing, landing on Taiwan would be hell.

troung

So with the stars in perfect alignment and the earth tilted at a 45 degree axis the RoCA thinks the best the PLA could do would be a Pyhrric victory - not as unconfident as it sounds.

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Officer of Engineers

Troung,

You know well as I do, the message should be that they best they can do is to lose more men than we would.

troung

Yeah he should have phrased what he said better, but what he said was not defeatist - just stating the possibility that in theory the PLA (if lucky) could get mauled heavily and lose their semi-modern elite units of the air force, navy and army and that with that there is a small chance they could take Taiwan (a more likely chance that they just lose the units and don't gain Taiwan).

Should have just said that a lot better.

Officer of Engineers

It is not also confidence builder either.

HKDan

[I wonder if this is in fact the case. Most things that I have read on a possible Taiwan/Mainland scenario question the fighting spirit and ability of the ROCA. I know that this is only a bit of anecdotal evidence and may well not represent the true situation, but quite a few of my friends are from Taiwan and most of them have passports from some pretty weird countries. They got them to avoid conscription. I dont know how widespread that sort of thing is, but it isn't really confidence building. The impression that I get from my amateur following of this issue is that the Taiwanese are placing too much of the burden of their own defense on the US.

Agreed, an amphibious operation is very, very difficult to pull off. I remember from my time in Taiwan as a kid that every time we went to the beach there were all kinds of cool bunkers and stuff. It seems that the Taiwanese have had quite a long time to prepare for that sort of attack. Im pretty sure that any Chinese invasion would have to be on the west coast though although your observations about local terrain are pretty much how I remember it as well. There are quite a few musings out there on PLA operations other(or perhaps in addition to) than a traditional amphibious landing. I wonder how well prepared Taiwan would be for a decapitation strike(or if such a thing could be done at all).

Feanor

What will Taiwan do, when China has enough conventional missiles to cover the entire island in the explosions?

Big K

i believe when it comes to China...size will do matter...doesnt it?

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gunnut

You were at the east coast. There's like no beach on the eastern side. It's the sea, the coastline, and the mountain.

There are some locations on the west side that can support a landing. The problem is not the cost of victory for China, but the cost of failure. Winning ugly is still a win. There might be some grumbling but at least you got the W. To commit and then lose is a different matter. Chinese people will not accept that.

gunnut

Such a terror tactic will not be accepted by today's world. What China will do is to stifle Taiwan's diplomatic and economic interests on the international market. After a while (decades) Taiwan will realize that there are no other choices unless it wishes to become another Cuba.

gunnut

You have rich friends. Ordinary people in Taiwan don't have such an escape plan.

supergreek

china would win, my reasons-
military expenditure
taiwan-8billion
china-80billion
Man power
taiwan-6million
china-340million
total military personal
taiwan-2million
china-7million
aicraft
taiwan-900
china-9000
Armour
taiwan-2,800
china-13,000
artillery
taiwan-2,000
china-30,000
missile defence systems
taiwan-1,500
china-18,000
navy
taiwan-95
china 280

note these are numbers and not the quality of the eqquipment.

gunnut

China might appear to be bigger but can it squeeze all its resources in such a small theater? Would you like to abandon all your other borders to concentrate on a small opponent?

Taiwan only has 1 front. China has more than 1.