China vis-à-vis Taiwan - Page 2

gunnut · 10-23-2007, 18:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Maggot

China’s biggest problem remains moving the horde from point A to point B. On the continent they can march, but China lacks the naval power to transport their forces in the needed strength to invade Taiwan. China has spent a lot on missiles, modernizing their airforce, and building their navy. Yes China would suffer huge casualties in an all out invasion of Taiwan, but when was the last time you saw China particularly concerned with casualties. They’re not exactly suffering from a manpower shortage. They could literally march one citizen into the sea every ten seconds and build a human land bridge to Taiwan and not have their population be adversely affected.

Actually that's not true any more. OoE, who has been a China observer over the past decade (or more), says Chinese citizenry is now averse to high casualty count. They can probably tolerate a much higher rate than the west, but the days of 100,000 casuaties is long gone.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Maggot

They have the largest military hovercrafts in the world, which while they are too large to be offloaded from other ships, have just enough range to go from China’s coast to Taiwan. They’ve got a whole lot of amphibious attack ships and lots of landing craft, but not nearly enough to get the numbers they want ashore. That and there are doubts that the exact numbers claimed are accurate in some cases, like the Type 271 Landing Craft the Chinese suddenly claimed to have hundreds of. Their only aircraft carrier is for helicopters only.

China has a lot of jets, a whole lot more than Taiwan, but they have very old bombers and Russia isn’t interested in them getting their hands on new bombers anytime soon. China has been buying a lot of Su-27’s and 30’s from Russia, but the Chinese aren’t doing a good job on their maintenance or training of pilots with their new jets. Some of these jets also have components from the new Su-37.

Taiwan has a bunch of F-16’s, home built backwards engineered F-16’s (IDF), and some Mirage 2000’s. Their edge in fighters is dropping all the time, increasing China’s chances. The Taiwan army is primarily tasked, trained, and designed for counter-landing. Not a big surprise. Their constant state of readiness has impacted their ability to train and retain soldiers though and in 1998 the head of the Army actually ordered a general stand down from their state of constant operational readiness to deal with this. Without the US navy, Taiwan is probably toast.

I'm not a military professional so I can't say for sure if China can take over Taiwan militarily. China has a huge military, but getting the men over the strait in sufficient numbers, in fighting condition, supply them, and then evacuate the wounded, is still far beyond China's capability. If unmolested during landing, they might be able to establish a beach head. But that force will be quickly eliminated by a counter attack. China's air force doesn't have the experience necessary to fly to Taiwan, conduct CAS missions, and then head back. They simply aren't trained for that mission.

The most possible scenario of a military conflict between the 2 sides is missile barrages and blockade. Neither side has the ability to land on the other's shore and conduct large scale military operations.

**Officer of Engineers** · 10-23-2007, 19:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Maggot

Yes China would suffer huge casualties in an all out invasion of Taiwan, but when was the last time you saw China particularly concerned with casualties.

The 1979 1st Sino-Vietnam War in which the Chinese themselves admitted to 30,000 casualties. It was a particular sting about Chinese military prowness and a great lost of face (I'm sure you know what that means).

So much so that they avoided the big time disasters and fight to the death battles during the 1984 2nd Sino-VN War.

Alas, the Tianamen Incident of 89 showed the populace no longer the blind obedient masses that Mao once controlled. The Chinese Communist Party will not survive a march of 30,000 mothers demanding answers for the sons they lost on Taiwan.

So, the CCP has one go and one go only at winning Taiwan. They will not be able to survive the backlash much like the Argentine Junta did not survive their backlash.

As for Taiwan itself, it still resolves around numbers. The RoCA fields 400,000+ troops. The PLA at its current best can only manage a single corps onto the island ... and that is after their best divisions get turned into minced meat pushing their follow up forces through. After that, their landing forces are spent. Return trips for more than a division is extremely unlikely and more likely a single regiment or brigade.

More to the point, Taiwan itself is divided into 3 main areas, each defended by a regforce corps and backed up by 2 or more reserved corps. If the stars are right and Pamela Anderson was in the mood to screw the RoCA CoS, the PLA might be able to defeat a single regforce corps ... but that is only if Pamela Anderson is in the mood.

wkllaw · 10-23-2007, 20:01 PM

Quote:

... but that is only if Pamela Anderson is in the mood.

Well said sir, but can you please please clarify this part? My english and knowledge of slang is not as good as some members born speaking english.

Who's Pamela Anderson?

**Officer of Engineers** · 10-23-2007, 20:11 PM

The Official Website of Pamela Anderson *** whistling to the stars ***

Zeng · 10-23-2007, 20:11 PM

Today, if Taiwan officially announces independence. Chinese government has the obligation to put mainland China and Taiwan into war relation based on the Anti-Secession Law. China has to put dramastic pressure on Taiwan including war.

But the Chinese will be the only losser of any war between mainland China and Taiwan no matter which side wins. All the enemies of China will be the big winners.

Here I give you the answer who wins and who loses.

wkllaw · 10-23-2007, 20:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers

The Official Website of Pamela Anderson *** whistling to the stars ***

I see, I understand completely now. Feel kinda of stupid right now actually.

Quite a looker with a nice body.

Feanor · 10-23-2007, 20:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers

The Official Website of Pamela Anderson *** whistling to the stars ***

EDIT: What if the Mongolians jump in? Horsemen can swim right?

**Officer of Engineers** · 10-23-2007, 20:19 PM

Regardless of who wins or who loses, the PLA is tasked with taking back Taiwan and it is almost as though Taiwan has been the excuse for everything the military is doing except taking back Taiwan.

The land forces had bough more artillery and more tanks than ever before, assets that does not aid in any form or shape in taking Taiwan. They've gone with the most impressive experiementation with the 155 Light Mech Regt meant more for a local raid than a 100 mile force projection.

And yet, we're told that these things are meant for Taiwan ... well, no one is saying the Chinese ain't smart in deception.

Zeng · 10-23-2007, 20:32 PM

Pursuing peace with everyone as much as possibile. At the same time preparing for the war in case things don't work out peacefully.

Hope for the best and prepare for the worst.

FullTank · 10-23-2007, 20:39 PM

OoE sir, cant the PLA attack Taiwan first with the 800+ missiles(targeting sea ports, industry, airports and other defense establishments)?

After the intial shock achieve air dominance(via huge arsenal of Flankers and J-10) and pound it again and again. It has a huge number of second level aircraft also that can be used to keep the Taiwan airforce(whatever survived the initial missiles) busy.

How many days before the PLAAF take over control over the sky's over taiwan?

Then only try for any land invasion.

wp2000 · 10-23-2007, 20:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers

Regardless of who wins or who loses, the PLA is tasked with taking back Taiwan and it is almost as though Taiwan has been the excuse for everything the military is doing except taking back Taiwan.

The land forces had bough more artillery and more tanks than ever before, assets that does not aid in any form or shape in taking Taiwan. They've gone with the most impressive experiementation with the 155 Light Mech Regt meant more for a local raid than a 100 mile force projection.

And yet, we're told that these things are meant for Taiwan ... well, no one is saying the Chinese ain't smart in deception.

Exactly. After so many years, most people still don't see that a "hot" but not "boiled" Taiwan situation suits China (and USA) nicely. It's going to be a long process: a old chinese saying, cooking a frog with warm water. Let's see which side can hold on longer.

That's why we have this funny situation: On China's side, although she cries to attack Taiwan, she's actually doing lots of long term non-Taiwan related military modernisations. On Taiwan's side, although she cries to fight for independance, the pro-independance ruling party seldomly spend extra bucks to enhance her defense.

Both sides are bluffing.

For China, Taiwan issue is a short term problem that may not worth heavy investment. If the situation can drag on for another couple of decades and China's long term modernisation can bear substantial fruits, then military requirements for Taiwan's final showdown will be met automatically.

For Taiwan, the ruling party has to sell the independance policy in a way that voters would believe independance can bring peace and prosperity to their daily life rather than dragging them into a war. So government can't increase tax to drastically increase defense. Also, realistically, it's suicidal to get into an arms race with China, especially when China is obviously not targetting Taiwan for a race, if there is a race.

IMHO, China is doing her military modernisation that's long over due. Taiwan issue is a perfect excuse/opportunety. Taiwan so far has been mostly smart enough not to respond. But China is keeping up the temperature, how long can Taiwan hold on by not investing heavily into defense? It seems that the ruling party is starting to fall for it now.

**Officer of Engineers** · 10-23-2007, 22:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FullTank

OoE sir, cant the PLA attack Taiwan first with the 800+ missiles(targeting sea ports, industry, airports and other defense establishments)?

We did 2000+ sorties over Iraq on the 1st day and the Iraqis were still air capable 2 weeks into the Kuwait War. Taiwan is far stronger than Iraq ever was.

Quote:

Originally Posted by FullTank

After the intial shock achieve air dominance(via huge arsenal of Flankers and J-10) and pound it again and again. It has a huge number of second level aircraft also that can be used to keep the Taiwan airforce(whatever survived the initial missiles) busy.

The battlespace will limit 40 planes from either side over each individual action. The case why the smaller RAF could held out against the superior numbered Luftwaffe. The battlespace does not allow any more numbers.

Quote:

Originally Posted by FullTank

How many days before the PLAAF take over control over the sky's over taiwan?

Never.

Quote:

Originally Posted by FullTank

Then only try for any land invasion.

They have to try for a land invasion from day 1. They don't have a choice. The CCP don't have a choice. The Chinese people is not going to tolerate a lost or a p!ssing contest.

**Officer of Engineers** · 10-23-2007, 22:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wp2000

Both sides are bluffing.

I don't think the DDP is bluffing. They know the Americans will come in even if they are the ones who provoked it.

Feanor · 10-23-2007, 22:51 PM

What about an air war of attrition? Also is the Chinese navy capable of blockading Taiwan?

**Officer of Engineers** · 10-23-2007, 22:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Feanor

What about an air war of attrition?

What's the point? The RoCAF can more than hold off the PLAAF while maintaining life as usual on the island.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Feanor

Also is the Chinese navy capable of blockading Taiwan?

Only if no one was willing to run the blockade ... and you can bet the RoCN is more than willing to go sub hunting.

10-23-2007, 20:11 PM	#20 (permalink)
Zeng Contributor Join Date: 01-16-07 Posts: 502 Country:	Today, if Taiwan officially announces independence. Chinese government has the obligation to put mainland China and Taiwan into war relation based on the Anti-Secession Law. China has to put dramastic pressure on Taiwan including war. But the Chinese will be the only losser of any war between mainland China and Taiwan no matter which side wins. All the enemies of China will be the big winners. Here I give you the answer who wins and who loses. __________________ I am here for exchanging opinions. Last edited by Zeng : 10-23-2007 at 21:26 PM.

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10-23-2007, 20:11 PM	#19 (permalink)
Officer of Engineers Moderator Scotch taster Join Date: 08-06-03 Posts: 14,874 Country:	The Official Website of Pamela Anderson * whistling to the stars *

10-23-2007, 20:19 PM	#23 (permalink)
Officer of Engineers Moderator Scotch taster Join Date: 08-06-03 Posts: 14,874 Country:	Regardless of who wins or who loses, the PLA is tasked with taking back Taiwan and it is almost as though Taiwan has been the excuse for everything the military is doing except taking back Taiwan. The land forces had bough more artillery and more tanks than ever before, assets that does not aid in any form or shape in taking Taiwan. They've gone with the most impressive experiementation with the 155 Light Mech Regt meant more for a local raid than a 100 mile force projection. And yet, we're told that these things are meant for Taiwan ... well, no one is saying the Chinese ain't smart in deception.

10-23-2007, 20:32 PM	#24 (permalink)
Zeng Contributor Join Date: 01-16-07 Posts: 502 Country:	Pursuing peace with everyone as much as possibile. At the same time preparing for the war in case things don't work out peacefully. Hope for the best and prepare for the worst.

10-23-2007, 20:39 PM	#25 (permalink)
FullTank Patron Join Date: 07-11-07 Location: West Des Moines, Iowa Posts: 259	OoE sir, cant the PLA attack Taiwan first with the 800+ missiles(targeting sea ports, industry, airports and other defense establishments)? After the intial shock achieve air dominance(via huge arsenal of Flankers and J-10) and pound it again and again. It has a huge number of second level aircraft also that can be used to keep the Taiwan airforce(whatever survived the initial missiles) busy. How many days before the PLAAF take over control over the sky's over taiwan? Then only try for any land invasion.

10-23-2007, 22:51 PM	#29 (permalink)
Feanor Banished Join Date: 06-12-07 Location: San Jose, CA Posts: 2,385 Country:	What about an air war of attrition? Also is the Chinese navy capable of blockading Taiwan?

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