xinhui

Ok, this is what the US congress thinks of the whole affair, some of you might believe the US congress is brain dead, but they do have their own research team/commission and they do make decisions that count

Anyways, US Congress’s US China Economic and Security Review Commission commissioned a study on this very topic. (United States-China Economic and Security Review Commission) and used PRC's own thank tank's view on China fight Taiwan, who wins.

And, here is how folks within China view this. (disclaim, I neither agree or disagree with their view, I am just a message)


How Can China "Subdue Its Enemy Without Fighting"? -- On the Significance of Readjusting Economy and Culture for the War of National Unification
By Yang Fan, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS)


some key points from the report:

* Consequently, we can say that in the next five years, readjusting China's priorities, economic strategies and value system is far more important than a future military war.

* It would make it hard for China to win any military victory [Taiwan], or China might even have to surrender without a fight.

* Preparing for war while seeking peace would achieve peace; being peaceful while seeking peace would result in losing the peace.

* we could avoid a war and achieve peaceful unification with Taiwan. (last page)

* China in the 21st century will play its role as a leading world power in international competition, and will form a cooperative and yet competitive relationship with the United States.




The key points of the article and many like it from PRC is that military build up, viewed by PRC is needed to preserve the status quo, because they can't win militarily, and they need a long term time frame to develop.

You read this article from Security Review Commission's website
United States-China Economic and Security Review Commission Contracted Research Papers

xinhui

Looks like Ma just got a few more votes


Defense Ministry to let many military personnel vote

Taiwan's military generals and officers will be able to vote in the March 22nd presidential election. Defense Minister Michael Tsai said on Tuesday that unless war breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, the ministry would try to let all the military personnel out to vote.

Tsai said that almost all personnel based on Penghu Island could go back to their hometown to vote. But because there are special regulations on the Kinmen and Matsu Islands, Tsai said about 70 to 75 percent of the personnel there must remain on duty.

Inst

Isn't RoCA rank-and-file pan-green?

rj1

Taiwanese politics is the most quirkish oddball thing to watch. It's the only democracy where the ruler can get shot at and there's legitimate questions on if he arranged it to aid in a win.

The going bet for the presidential election is still Kuomintang all the way right?

xinhui

They are very much pro - blue and many die hard pro-unification-ist can be found at the military. If the military was allowed to vote during the last round, Chen SB will not be reelected.

xinhui

sorry BM for the late reply

According to PRC's official statement which based on the policy framework layout by DXP in 1985 stated that ROC can keep her internal political structures, economic system, trade, memberships in NGO, and yes military,

The only item ROC will have to give up is foreign policy (read, HongKong model but with her own military). Some can argue that CCP can't not be trusted, but that is not the point of my post. PRC is using economic as a mean to lore folks in ROC not to think of outright indept right now. Not to argue how good the current policy is, but that is PRC's current policy.

Jigong

dave luskin, has astralis' post answered your questions?

nebula82

If China is crazy enough to mount a military invasion, it won't be now or even in the medium-term future, it'll be at least 3 decades from now when the PLA of then will bear little resemblance to the PLA of today - in training, doctrine & quality.

But by then China won’t have to use the military but her economic might to force Taiwan into a one-country two systems concept rule..?

Nebula82.

saimneor

Peaceful reunification is certainly the goal. However I do not know if Deng's policy is still true today. What Hu has is described as: soften the soft side, and harden the hard side. So as Taiwan has less bargaining power by the hour, I do not think China wants to give up that much any more.