Feanor

New member, you might want to make an introductory thread about yourself in the Introductions forum.

astralis

beansprout,

might want to head over to the welcome board, and introduce yourself first!

but to answer your post- the KMT of the old days would have disagreed wholeheartedly with that assertion. even when they fled to TW, they had representatives from mongolia and tibet waiting for the of course inevitable day when they retook the mainland.

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Never let the future disturb you. You will meet it, if you have to, with the same weapons of reason which today arm you against the present.

-Marcus Aurelius, Meditations

cuba

Going back to the China vs. Taiwan debate. I was reading an article - which was of course a Pentagon publication [2006] and, therefore, may be full of bias - which suggests that China would not be able to take the island as easily as you may think.

These are the main reasons (which are of course debatable):
1. A lot of China's military technology is soviet technology and the rate of retiring it will exceed the rate of acquiring new hardware.
2. Their guided missile's aren't completely accurate
3. They do not have enough amphibious vessels to successfully launch an invasion and/or enforce a blockade.

Disclaimer: obviously there are experts on this forum who can shed light on this argument and these ideas may well be partial.

gunnut

Most people on this forum do not believe China can easily take Taiwan. Only the ultra nationalist Chinese do. After looking through posts by people who are versed in logistics and avid China watchers, I've changed my opinion from "China could do it" to "China might be able to do it in 50 years."

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cuba

That's good to know. Or is it?

I just found this topic and could not read every single page of posts in this topic.

tphuang

let's just go through your point.
1. In general, when newer technology comes in, there are less of them. For example, compare the number of F-22 and F-15.
2. I'm not sure which guided missiles you are talking about. Maybe you want to check up on their collection for ground attack weapons.
3. They certainly have enough to enforce a blockade if USN doesn't get involved.

Officer of Engineers

You forgot Japan.

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Chimo

lwarmonger

So the US/Japan/South Korea/everyone else is just going to sit by as their ships are stopped or sunk by a Chinese blockade?

Ironduke

I don't see how China can possibly enforce a blockade in the sea to the east of Taiwan... Taiwan would have clear air superiority in that region.

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cuba

Remember, it's not my point it's the point made in the paper i read. Thank heaven's for the disclaimer.

I thought that the US are already involved, supplying Taiwan with plenty of weapons.

lwarmonger

Also true, and it would merely need to contest airspace to make a blockade impractical.

Ironduke

I find it exasperating that people who talk about how China can so easily take Taiwan cannot even comprehend this basic fact. China cannot impose a blockade on Taiwan.

gunnut

Well, a blockade has to have the threat of force to back it up. Simply saying "I am blockading this island" doesn't do a lot of good until I can sink a few ships trying to go through the line. China certainly can sink a few merchant ships going to Taiwan. The problem is that's pretty much a declaration of war against the owner of the vessle. China's blockade force will be destroyed in short order and traffic will resume. And the world will be quite annoyed at the bruhaha.

xinhui

Here is an interesting note I just ran into.

One of two daughters KMT chairman Ma Ying-jeou decided to live in Beijing instead of Taipei.

ROC presidential debates are so much fun to monitor and I am having a blast.

Attached Images

	Ma1201785521_29541.jpg (14.9 KB, 55 views)
	Ma1201785521_52152.jpg (20.3 KB, 55 views)

tphuang

right, I mean, rocn alone.

well, I'm sure ROCAF would be busy fighting on the other side. We can get in a debate on how much force ROCAF have to launch against blocking PLAN ships, but that will probably never end.