zraver

The current international classification of lesser, middle, greater, and super powers is to limited. I fall into the camp that adds a new catagory- hyper power. This divides the world in to 5 categories that are more objectively compared with one another.

To Paris, U.S. Looks Like a 'Hyperpower' - International Herald Tribune

Placing the US into the Hyper Power catagory means the term Super Power can be more readily ascribed to several nations who quite frankly by themselves have more power than any nation in history before 1945.

Hyper Power
(Global conventional ground force projection, +hegemonic power in at least 1 of these 4 areas: Economy, Military, politically, cultural +all super power categories.)

USA*Dominant in all 4 hegemonic areas.

Superpower(having all of the following)

1 trillion USD economy (actual) not PPP
100,000,000 population base or greater.
Credible space program.
Blue water capable navy.
Nuclear weapons.
P5 seat on the UN Security Council.
Modern air force and aerospace industry.

Russia
China
India
EU
Brazil

Greater Powers (most of the above list- within 1-2 categories)

England (-Population)* Eventually faces loss of P5 seat to EU if the EU federalizes.
France (-Population)*Eventually faces loss of P5 seat to EU if the EU federalizes.
Germany (-Nukes -P5 Seat)
Japan (-Nukes -P5 Seat)
India (-P5 seat, -Economy) India will break the $1 trillion economy in a few more years, and is a P5 contender.
Brazil (-Nukes, -P5 seat)* Possible future P5 member.

Middle Powers (missing 3-6)
Iran (-Nukes, -BW Navy, -Population, -Economy- P5 Seat)
Turkey (-Nukes, -BW capable navy, -Population, - Economy, -P5 seat, -Space program)
Israel (-BW capable navy, -Population, -Economy, -P5 Seat, -Space program)
Pakistan (-BW navy, -Economy, -P5 Seat)
Egypt (-Nukes, - Population, -P5 Seat, - BW capable navy, -Economy, -Space program)
Taiwan (-nukes, -P5 Seat, -Population, -Space program, -Economy)
Brazil (-Nukes, -P5 Seat, -Economy)*Possible of elevation to Super power status.
Mexico (-Space program, -Aerospace industry, -Nukes, -BW navy, -P5 seat)

Lesser powers (are missing 7 or more of the categories)

South Africa *destroyed existing nuclear weapons.

FullTank

zraver a very good classification.

The superpower title above seems a bit lenient though.

Imo these things are relative to other powers. Comparing the power of zimbabwe because it might be able to defeat the roman empire of old doesnt serve any purpose.

Atleast these 3 needs to be added to your list to call a country superpower.

1)95%+ educated population - quality of citizens

2)25+ SLBM's of 8k+ range - retaliatory power

3)Ability to fight conventional war for long duration(12 months+) against any other superpower(maybe even hyperpower?) without external help. - staying power

abhishek

Slight correction. India crossed the $1 trillion mark back in April 2007.

zraver

I think your ideas about adding more classification is without merit. India and China might not have 95% literacy but all the same because of thier sheer population size they have huge brain trusts. India has what is probably the best engineering university in the world, China graduates huge numbers of engineers even after reducing thier numbers to only reflect those who would meet western qualifications. One problem in power rankings is avoiding unfair litmus tests that do not actually and/or accurately reflect real power.

Evey nation listed as Superpower or emerging superpower has more military, cultural, and economic power than any nation in history prior to 1945. Super powers or emerging superpowers cannot fight each other certainly not for a year. No nation can sustain 12 months of high intensity warfare with modern arms prices. Modern superpowers battle for influence and wage war with soft power and by proxy. Just because more players have joined the game, the rules about direct confrontation have not changed.

abhishek,

I will correct my list to reflect a 1 trillion dollar economy.

zraver

well can a mod edit the post for India to say (-P5 seat) India lacks only a P5 seat in consideration as a super power.

dilawar

Just a bit away from the hard power part. But there are only 2 countries that have an extremely massive internal and external film and music industry. Thats India and the US. Fact is only these two nations produce music and films in such a massive ratio that too for local consumption, i don't see any other single nation beating the figures or the sophistication anytime soon.

Local consumption accounts for above 90% of the Industries. And they export. Hollywood is well known, but in some of my travels in as far way places like Morocco i have encountered people more familiar with Bollywood than i am. I got a shock when in a Thai night club i saw the crowd cheer and rave to Dhoom by Tata young.

Soft culture in many ways brings around many times more integration than hard power projection.

My 2p worth.

tphuang

so does Hong Kong. I guess that makes it a power too.

gunnut

The list does not include Australia and Canada. Both are capable of force projection on another continent, have modern industry, strong economy, and educated populace.

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Ironduke

But how long can Canada and Australia afford to maintain sizable military forces abroad?

BTW zraver, is this your table or did you borrow and adapt it from elsewhere? I wouldn't qualify China as being a superpower -- they can't project force. India and Brazil don't come close. EU doesn't have a unified military structure or common foreign policy, though they have started an EU Rapid Reaction Force. They could very well be a superpower with deeper political integration and greater military interoperability.

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Officer of Engineers

Canada has kept a brigade size force outside of Canada ever since the end of WWII. At times, in hostile action as we are now doing in Afghanistan.

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Adux

Zraver,
in my opinion,
Hollywood has been more powerful than B-2's.

FullTank

China is already at 93%. In half a decade it would have easily crossed the target.

India will take much longer till maybe 2030-35.


China has already fought long wars (albeit indirectly)

Its not a question of if they will but if they can. Consider it like a 12 round. Intially both may come out throwing a flurry of punches but after some time it would be who can even survive the 12 rounds. China also has an industry to support long wars on its own although it will definitely not be at high intensity.


India is not there now but will be there by around 2035(perhaps even by 2025 if its leaders start moving things with single minded focus--which is not very likely). Its time will come. Just not as soon as it gets a P5-if that happens today. Better to be guaranteed superpower than declare it prematurely and most Indians are quite pragmatic and realistic about it imo.There is a lot of work to be done yet.


Agree with you that both are not but China seems very close(possibly before 2012).

global force projection as per zraver is a hyper power capability.

Feanor

A brigade force (at least in my un-educated opinion) is hardly a matter of pride for a first world nation.

zraver

This is my list, and the criteria are mine, although the term hyper-power isn't.

Ironduke, you are still thinking of Superpower in terms that embody the US. This is an unfair standard and makes for unbalanced comparisons. Significant global force projection is a hyper-power ability, along with hegemonic traits. A modern superpower is more than just military might. it is also economic might, political might, and population.

China has a P5 seat this is a political weapon every bit as powerful as a nuclear bomb, just look at the Iran crisis. China's economy is also a hub of global activity and the second largest economy world wide. Chinese missiles however limited in number can reach any nation on earth and obliterate all but the largest of them. There is really no way to reduce China to the level of mere great power, not and have that classification mean anything.

India likewise is an emerging superpower, as is brazil, massive populations and trillion dollar (or soon to be) economies commands a certain level of respect above even great power. Brazil also surrendered its nuclear ambitions of its own free will so I don't necessarily hold that lack against Brazil.

The EU isn't even a nation, but it holds sway over 400 million people and the worlds wealthiest single economic area, has 2 P5 members and several of the worlds biggest military powers. Anyway you cut it the EU is an emerging super power with hyper-power potential, especially as the federalization of Europe continues and the EU takes on more and more powers once associated exclusively with the sovereign state.

omon

lol, you are right, i bet romans would sh..t their pants if someone brought ak47 in the colesium, for the games.

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