Wraith601

Before we start keep in mind that I want this to be a thread with some serious discussion, it is not meant to be another banal "vs." thread. If this goes well we may be able to establish a series of intelligent "what if" threads.

Normally we get lots of "China vs US" and "PRc vs Taiwan" threads but my question is what about the PRC and Central Asia?

Let's say hypothetically the PRC decides to move into Central Asia, in particular Kazakhstan. Now the reason given would be to achieve restore stability to the region (this could be preceded by PRC sponsored unrest of revolt), in fact it is an attempt to secure favorable access to Kazakhstan's oil and gas reserves and to put pressure on the other Central Asian states to give the PRC more favorable terms.

Here's some things I'm curious about:

1. Can the PRC even actually carry out such an operation? The closest forces I've found are those in the Lanzhou Military District just a single armoured division, two motorised infantry divisions, one artillery division, one armoured, two motorised infantry, one artillery, one anti-aircraft brigades, and an anti-tank regiment. However, I am unsure of their combat capabilities. Does the PRC 15th Airborne Corps have the capability to take Kazakhstan? Can the PRC redeploy the 38th or 39th Group Army to the region without raising undue alarm? Are these forces even enough?

2. What is the likely response of the US and/or Russia? Do they commit military forces?

3. If the US and/or Russia does commit forces, what do they send and what is their plan?

4. Do the Kazakhs even resist or do they accept a PRC presence?

As always any comments and discussion is most welcome.

__________________
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-Sir Arthur Wellesley

zraver

The problem I see is the period of unrest. Russia would look askance at any PRC meddling and this could stir up the underlining tension over the silent invasion of Siberia.

Longterm, China's best in might be Afghanistan post NATO. It would create a large secure land bridge to Pakistan, end a persistent security problem for its ally, cause problems for India, and put China in a posistion to leverage pressur eon not only Kazhakistan but Uzbekistan and provide a direct route for Iranian oil and gas. Unlike the USSR or NATO China has the infantry assets to sit on the Afghans like a fat aunt sitting on the family cat when she visits for the holiday's.

Afghan jihadees also give China a much more plausable excuse to intervene. In any of the former Soviet stans Russia would be the one to send troops to secure its sphere of influence. Who is to prove one way or another if PRC assets start getting hit by jihadees. Blow a hole in a road under some old army trucks placewhite sheet sover some manicans, and kill a couple of horses and you have instant cassus belli with international support.

dulu

The purpose of Chinese troop development was aimed at it's domestic unrest since the death of Chairman Mao. During the year of Mao, Chinese built it's army for the possible war against America and Soviet. After Mao's death, Chinese leader disarmed it's army to great extent and ceased to cast money on national defence.
In fact, at Mao's age, Chinese built it's own industrial system, from steel to car, from tank to rocket, from nuclear bomb to satellite and from nuclear submarine to warship. But Chinese destroyed this system by their own hand. Now they bought everything from Russia and Israel.
China is strong outsibe but weak inside. I don't think China can make any progress to anywhere. China bought weapon to deal with it's own ppl.

Zeng

I think that Kilo subs are the best weapons China bought to deal with it's own ppl among other weapons like P-300 and Su-27.


Just kidding

__________________
I am here for exchanging opinions.

Zeng

^^^
I thought that after Vietnam war (US), Afghan war (USSR) and the ongoing Iraq war, everyone learned that not to invade especially not to occupy other countries. Somehow, there are still people thinking about that China may do such thing again. It is really unbelievable.

I think that China's best is to develop closer economic ties with those Soviet stans just like what China is doing with S.E Asia countries. When Afghan gets more stablized, China can also establish closer economic ties with it. Today, it becomes another drug source for China.

It is a much better idea to occupy the markets of other countries with consumer products than to occupy their countries using military force. In order to export more, we want them become more stable and richer.

Center Asia could be a good energy supply source for China.

zraver

[quote=Zeng_xinren;391103]^^^
I thought that after Vietnam war (US), Afghan war (USSR) and the ongoing Iraq war, everyone learned that not to invade especially not to occupy other countries. Somehow, there are still people thinking about that China may do such thing again. It is really unbelievable. [/quote[

Unlike the USSR in Afghanistan, China has massive uncommitted reserves of men for both security duty and development, as well as the economic backing and sheer ruthlessness to pull it off.

A secure gas/oil route from Iran to China/Pakistan is very tempting plus it outflanks India.

Export based growth wont last for ever and China has some major internal stability problems (enviroment, retirement, healthcare, local corruption, innovation, equity distrabution, etc) that have to be dealth with soon or the whole system could come crashing down.

It is definately China's best bet to outflank the USN.

dulu

Good shoot!

[quote=zraver;391106][quote=Zeng_xinren;391103]^^^
Export based growth wont last for ever and China has some major internal stability problems (enviroment, retirement, healthcare, local corruption, innovation, equity distrabution, etc) that have to be dealth with soon or the whole system could come crashing down.

dulu

Why not? Those corrupt officals even dare to deal with it's own people with poisonous food and medicine, if necessary they will use nuclear bombs to extinguish Chinese as a race. I strongly support your officals to do it.
As a result of it, our Mongolian will win a huge profit from Chinese cannibalism!
Pls hurry up, I will loss my patience.

dulu

Plus, pls extinguish all 30 millions Chinese people who live in iner-Mongolia in advance. They not only take our grassland away but also is a huge barrier for the development of Chinese economy, because corrupt officals have to spend their precious money to feed those creatures!

Zeng

zraver,

I think that you should be proud of the praise from dulu. He hailed your comments as “Good shoot”. Also, IIRC, Mongolia is the first one in the entire world to officially express the support of America’s decision to invade Iraq. I hope that Americans will not forget or ignore that. If I am wrong here, please correct me.

About your China crashing comments, I will find a time to answer them late if I don’t forget it. Even if China is heading to crashing (although I don’t believe so), invading other countries will not help China.


dulu,

I sincerely wish that as a descendant of the great Genghis Khan, it is better for you to bring proud to the great Mongolia people in a decent way. One of my college mates in Beijing is an excellent Mongolian (inner-Mongolian). Now, he is the highest rank official in an economic department of inner-Mongolia. When we visit inner-Mongolia, he took us to Mongolia style restaurant (not the Mongolia BBQ in US) and ate Mongolian food (not poisonous I suppose). It tasted good. I don’t think that he is corrupted although I can’t guarantee it.


Mods,

I think that dulu needs some education about the forum rule. Thanks.

wkllaw

Mongolian food, Zeng_xinren hey can you recommend some mongolian food if it really tasted good like you said.

__________________
Those who can't change become extinct.

Zeng

I like food of almost every culture. They all have different features. But mongolian food is really good although may not be good for keeping weight low. I will show some pictures later if I can find them.

zraver

Invading other countries seems to be more popular hsitorically than refrom. And the PRC needs a major reformation to correct some of the imbalances that threaten its very existence.

Having about 1/5ths worlds population it has 44% of all new cancer cases.

The weath disparity is growing and the number of riots and demonstriations seems to be risings, in effect the CCP might be losing the Mandate of Heaven.

Local officals are still graded by growth numbers which breeds corruption

China passed the US as the worlds biggest polluter

The impending marriage crisis and the threat of a sexually imbalanced society and its impact on wages and labor costs

The rural education gap

The fact that 70% of China's population does not have relaible affordable health care

Urban sprawl

The PRC might well tackle all of these things, specially if they can reign in local party officals and thier unholy alliance with business. Ameirca went througha similar phase in our industrial trust period but America had less liabilites. China's biggest asset is its 1.2 trillion in forgien reserves, at least China can afford to change.

wkllaw

That seems to have risen dramaticly in the since 2000, but it seems that the numbers have been stagnating lately.

The rural aren't much of a threat to the CCP, what to really look out for is the situation amongst the people that are in the middle class or other people in strategic areas who are more powerful than the rural. I don't think theose people would want any change with all the money right now.

dulu

Hi Chinese pls don't pretend to be hypocritically bloody nerd! You need to accept an improved education yourself.
My countrymen, great Mongol warriors fought side by side with American soldiers against tyranny and dictatordhip, and it's a great honor for Mongol army!
As to me, I hope a stable and prosperous China, because it means good job markets, opportunity and education. But some corrupt officals really disappointed us. All in all, we share the same country and same responsibility, so we must to lead it to right track.
Chinese givernment must to eliminate it's corruption as soon as possible, otherwise the whole country will be destroyed by our own hand.
President Hu Jing Tao is a good leader, he set strict law, and severe pinishment on law-breaker and corruption. I strongly support him and his comrade Premier Wen Jia Bao. If possible Hu should look for 3rd, 4th and fifth presidency.