Jane's: China to overtake Taiwan militarily by 2010

Zhang Fei · 04-25-2007, 05:10 AM

An AFP article from China Post:

Quote:

China's rapid beefing up of its military might should give it the edge over Taiwan for the first time by 2010, Jane's Defense Weekly said Tuesday.

China announced last month a 17.8-percent rise in military spending to US$45 billion for this year -- a boost aimed at making its forces capable of a quick, decisive invasion of Taiwan while deterring US intervention, the authoritative magazine said.

"China is working hard to transform its Vietnam War-era defense establishment into a credible regional military power with a new generation of indigenous equipment, designed to thwart more advanced adversaries," said Jane's.

The People's Liberation Army (PLA) is now shifting into a high gear, through continuing to import Russian weapons, improving training and increasing its professionalism, it added.

"The centerpiece of this offensive capability is the PLA's potent missile force with the modernization drive likely to allow the PLA to gain the upper hand in the military balance against Taiwan for the first time by the end of this decade," the magazine said.

Tensions between Taiwan and China have escalated in recent years. China considers Taiwan part of its territory and has repeatedly threatened to invade the island should it declare formal independence.

China's air force, navy and strategic missile forces head the queue in equipment funding priorities, while the once-dominant ground forces lag well behind, Jane's said.

While Chinese defense chiefs worry about the United States deepening its security ties with regional allies, the PLA is strengthening its links with Russia through arms sales and military exercises, said Jane's.

"Chinese acquisitions of Russian arms have also continued, with the next significant deal in the pipeline the Chinese acquisition of Sukhoi Su-33 multi-role fighter aircraft: a carrier version of the Su-27 fighter," it said.

"The two sides are reportedly in advanced negotiations over the deal and there is speculation that the PLA Naval Air Force is considering establishing a combat air wing to be deployed on a future aircraft carrier.

"The two countries are holding a second bilateral military exercise in Russia in July, in which China will reportedly send its F-10 fighter aircraft to participate for the first time."

Jane's added that the PLA Air Force was modernizing its "aging" frontline arsenal as new generations of combat, surveillance and airborne early warning and command aircraft roll off the production lines from China's revitalized aviation industry.

xrough · 04-25-2007, 05:25 AM

Based on this report it seems China is preparing for US intervention not just to defeat Taiwan's army...

Ray · 04-25-2007, 10:59 AM

As I see it and the little that I understand of the Chinese, they never address directly any issue they are interested in. They address similar but intermediate/ side issues to lull the adversary when actually their aim is elsewhere.

Taiwan is just a diversion!

That is what I have always thought.

But then experts like the Colonel or Astralis could comment.

WECIV · 04-25-2007, 11:47 AM

What is there true aim if Taiwan is a diversion. I totally agree that they never show their true aim, but I think Taiwan is key if they are to control their lines of communication with the ME and all that black gold. Though I think the Malacca Straight is just as important for them.

W

Druze · 04-25-2007, 12:51 PM

Sorry people but you underestimate China. China is a lot smarter then you all think. China will and is taking over Taiwan by economic means. remember when everything used to say "Made in Taiwan"? Those days are over as China has taken over manufacturing from Taiwan. As Taiwan goes down China goes up. In 20 years time it may be in Taiwan's economic interest to simply be part of China again voluntarily.

**Officer of Engineers** · 04-25-2007, 13:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ray

As I see it and the little that I understand of the Chinese, they never address directly any issue they are interested in. They address similar but intermediate/ side issues to lull the adversary when actually their aim is elsewhere.

On the contrary, Sir, China has been more than blunt a few times. The often times attributed to their elusiveness is often the case of an inferior position trying to project an image of strength ... or they just don't know what to do.

I really don't know how much more blunt can you get with the announcements and troop movements before the Korean War, the Sino-Indian War, the Sino-Soviet Clashes, the Sino-Vietnam Wars, and Tianamen Square.

crooks · 04-25-2007, 14:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Druze

Sorry people but you underestimate China. China is a lot smarter then you all think. China will and is taking over Taiwan by economic means. remember when everything used to say "Made in Taiwan"? Those days are over as China has taken over manufacturing from Taiwan. As Taiwan goes down China goes up. In 20 years time it may be in Taiwan's economic interest to simply be part of China again voluntarily.

The world is heavily-focused on comsumption, it has room for both

.

Besides, I reckon Taiwan (imo) would rather become a US state than Rejoin China.

Not that it would choose either.

xrough · 04-25-2007, 19:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Druze

Sorry people but you underestimate China. China is a lot smarter then you all think. China will and is taking over Taiwan by economic means. remember when everything used to say "Made in Taiwan"? Those days are over as China has taken over manufacturing from Taiwan. As Taiwan goes down China goes up. In 20 years time it may be in Taiwan's economic interest to simply be part of China again voluntarily.

I don't think that if the manufacturer's from Taiwan will go to China it doesn't mean that Taiwan would consider rejoining..

wkllaw · 04-25-2007, 20:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Druze

Sorry people but you underestimate China. China is a lot smarter then you all think. China will and is taking over Taiwan by economic means. remember when everything used to say "Made in Taiwan"? Those days are over as China has taken over manufacturing from Taiwan. As Taiwan goes down China goes up. In 20 years time it may be in Taiwan's economic interest to simply be part of China again voluntarily.

You can attribute that to the leadership of people like Hu Jintao. China's top leadership are the top because they accomplish things, proven themselves and performed well. These guys are incredibly intelligent. The government is currently a technocracy.

lmsfrd · 06-06-2007, 07:28 AM

without US intervention, it is easy for china to defeat TAIWAN army.

the worst situation for china to face is the intervention of US. so china has to prepare every thing for the worst situation.

the better china prepare,the less the possibility of US intervention. US will cautiously consider the cost of intervention.

US is a great country,but why many chinese people dislike US? maybe this is real cause.

lmsfrd · 06-06-2007, 07:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ray

As I see it and the little that I understand of the Chinese, they never address directly any issue they are interested in. They address similar but intermediate/ side issues to lull the adversary when actually their aim is elsewhere.

Taiwan is just a diversion!

That is what I have always thought.

But then experts like the Colonel or Astralis could comment.

if Taiwan is a diversion, can you tell me what is chinese actual aim?

why does china take Taiwan as aim? only people knowing chinese modern history will really understand.

**Officer of Engineers** · 06-06-2007, 08:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lmsfrd

without US intervention, it is easy for china to defeat TAIWAN army.

That is pure hogwash and it shows that you don't know the real situation. Try studying it 1st.

**TopHatter** · 06-06-2007, 13:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lmsfrd

without US intervention, it is easy for china to defeat TAIWAN army.

And how exactly is the People's Liberation Army supposed to liberate Taiwan from clear across the Formosa Strait?

That's a 100+ kilometer barrier in your way.

Try again please.

xrough · 06-07-2007, 06:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lmsfrd

without US intervention, it is easy for china to defeat TAIWAN army.

the worst situation for china to face is the intervention of US. so china has to prepare every thing for the worst situation.

the better china prepare,the less the possibility of US intervention. US will cautiously consider the cost of intervention.

US is a great country,but why many chinese people dislike US? maybe this is real cause.

We feel anger to those who we think can harm us or will do against us..that's probably what they think?

Stan187 · 06-07-2007, 07:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TopHatter

And how exactly is the People's Liberation Army supposed to liberate Taiwan from clear across the Formosa Strait?

That's a 100+ kilometer barrier in your way.

Try again please.

Advanced Chinese bridging equipment. They're keeping it on the hush hush

04-25-2007, 05:25 AM	#2 (permalink)
xrough Contributor Join Date: 01-08-07 Location: Manila Posts: 746 Country:	Based on this report it seems China is preparing for US intervention not just to defeat Taiwan's army... __________________

04-25-2007, 10:59 AM	#3 (permalink)
Ray Postmaster General *Military Professional* Join Date: 08-20-03 Posts: 26,144 Country:	As I see it and the little that I understand of the Chinese, they never address directly any issue they are interested in. They address similar but intermediate/ side issues to lull the adversary when actually their aim is elsewhere. Taiwan is just a diversion! That is what I have always thought. But then experts like the Colonel or Astralis could comment. __________________ "Some have learnt many Tricks of sly Evasion, Instead of Truth they use Equivocation, And eke it out with mental Reservation, Which is to good Men an Abomination." I don't have to attend every argument I'm invited to. HAKUNA MATATA

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04-25-2007, 11:47 AM	#4 (permalink)
WECIV Regular Join Date: 11-13-06 Posts: 88 Country:	What is there true aim if Taiwan is a diversion. I totally agree that they never show their true aim, but I think Taiwan is key if they are to control their lines of communication with the ME and all that black gold. Though I think the Malacca Straight is just as important for them. W

04-25-2007, 12:51 PM	#5 (permalink)
Druze Regular Join Date: 04-23-07 Posts: 90	Sorry people but you underestimate China. China is a lot smarter then you all think. China will and is taking over Taiwan by economic means. remember when everything used to say "Made in Taiwan"? Those days are over as China has taken over manufacturing from Taiwan. As Taiwan goes down China goes up. In 20 years time it may be in Taiwan's economic interest to simply be part of China again voluntarily.

06-06-2007, 07:28 AM	#10 (permalink)
lmsfrd Banished Join Date: 06-06-07 Posts: 23	without US intervention, it is easy for china to defeat TAIWAN army. the worst situation for china to face is the intervention of US. so china has to prepare every thing for the worst situation. the better china prepare,the less the possibility of US intervention. US will cautiously consider the cost of intervention. US is a great country,but why many chinese people dislike US? maybe this is real cause.

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