BudW

How will the rest of the World react? and will they be succesful?

deadkenny

Bush pretty much committed the US to military intervention if the PRC were to try to use military force against Taiwan. The keys would be naval and air superiority. Taiwan also have quite a large military relative to the size of their population (like half a million). They would obviously be overwhelmed by a portion of the PRC forces, however, since Taiwan is an island the question comes down to what they could land in the first wave. If Taiwan can withstand the first wave, and if the US intevenes, then the PRC can not win take the main island. Perhaps they could grab a couple of the small island controled by Taiwan, just off the coast. But the main island of Taiwan would not be easy.

Officer of Engineers

Why does everyone assumes the PRC has a chance? If they had a chance, they would've done it a long time ago.

It's a million man swim. That's an exaggeration but not a big one. The PLA MIGHT land two light mech corps and an airborne corps. They have one chance and one chance only to win a single battle of annihilation. That is if they could force that single battle of annihilation. After that, it's negotiation time, meaning surrender time.

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Chimo

thejester

Yeah, the PRC doesn't have the lift capability necessary to get a large enough force across the straights. US intervention would only be the icing on the cake.

ExNavyAmerican

China wouldn't have a chance. Their technological level is far inferior to that of the United States, and the United States would intervene, that is assuming it occurs in 2007. I agree with thejester: China doesn't have the lift capabilities, and the U.S. navy would sink any naval transports they use. The air transports could easily be taken out by a battle group. In my opinion, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would reaffirm the value of the navy as a fighting force, as can be inferred by my statements above. In my opinion, the fight would be one-sided.

gunnut

The world economy will suffer a melt down that likes we have not seen in decades.

NYSE will have a huge sell off as investors move money from stocks to bonds. The will trigger the London exchange, the Hong Kong exchange, and the Tokyo exchange to collapse as well. Asian trade will be disrupted. Computer price will triple overnight as most parts are manufactured in China and most of those companies with factories in China are from Taiwan. China's booming economy will come to a halt, if not a depression that will take years to recover.

China ain't dumb. They won't risk economic develpment for bragging rights and possible loss of face in a failed attempt at Taiwan.

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"Only Nixon can go to China." -- Old Vulcan proverb.

Bulgaroctonus

Not only would China lose some of its economic clout, but they would jeopardize their large amounts of U.S. treasury bonds.

dave lukins

The US could not afford to intervene in yet another "fracas". China may Shout and scream about its legality to "its land."...But Taiwan will remain Taiwan for many yrs.

Zeng

^^^
Excellent thread, great analysis for something will not happen.

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I am here for exchanging opinions.

Shek

Walmart goes under!

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"So little pains do the vulgar take in the investigation of truth, accepting readily the first story that comes to hand." Thucydides 1.20.3

zraver

I almost wish China would try so we could freeze Chinese assets and then nullify our debt held by China...

Hrmmm..... interesting thought....

Will China at some point, once she can defeat Taiwan, give it a go and strike a back room deal with the US. We sit tight physically but take strong action (words) that result in US renouicng the debt and the PRC agreeing as as the price of returning to the status quo.

China wins, US wons, Taiwan loses, but when giants dance little people get stepped on.

gamercube

I don't think China will let go of US$1 trillion just to get Taiwan back. I'm no economist, but I think that even if they release half of that into the global market overnight, then the US dollar will likely plunge dramatically, forcing other countries with huge US dollar reserves to sell them off too, triggering a domino effect. The economy of the US might be threatened.

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Hasta la Victoria siempre!

zraver

The US economy can survive the debt dumping in the short term as an act of war. The debt is only really dangeorus to the US if it has to be serviced long term.

The US can cancel its debt at any time simply by choosing to do so. While defualting would cause major problems it is survivable, it is also unavoidable in the long run. China knows that 1 trillion will never be paid back, they didn't buy it to have it paid back, but to keep its primary market place open. China and the US are engage din a double extortion of each other. China has to buy US debt to sell in the US, and the US has to open its markets to sell its debt.

Taiwan is easily worth 1 trillion dollars to the PRC, after the 1 trillion isn't real Taiwan is.

Woodsy the Lar

I Personally think China is not looking South but North at the Oil,Gas and Resources that Russia has got.Thinking in Chess terms Keep your Opponent Guessing at all times. China has increased its Arms Budget by 30% this year.

Zeng

China is looking around world with a smiling face for friends

China is looking around world with hard earn $$$ for energy and raw material sellers

China is looking around world with cheap products for buyers


Sir, where is the 30% from ?