Nuclear weapons used in next 30 years? - Page 3

kams · 03-01-2007, 15:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers

The question is still can a Chinese 1st strike neutralize an Indian response. I would say no. And there is no way that a Pak 1st strike could even come close.

I agree with you, none of the above have that capability. That should deter a Rational leader.

subba · 03-01-2007, 16:02 PM

Quote:

All their nukes are stored away from their delivery vehicles and moving them would be very, very noticeable.

Pardon me OOE Colonel sir, but even if the warheads are separate, they need not be so far that it could not be put together..with others noticing. How is it possible then that 1st strike capability is not with China or India or Pakistan? They do have it.

We can possibly notice the launch in real time, but not the mating of warheads..

**Officer of Engineers** · 03-01-2007, 16:21 PM

In the case of the Chinese, the military, the 2nd Artillery Force, has been so frustrated with the civilians, the Central Military Commission, who holds the keys to the nukes that even during exercises, the 2AF could not even get the civies to practice to get their keys out.

That frustration has resulted in the 2AF giving up on nukes and going the conventional route. The Chinese pioneered in MRBM and IRBM barrage salvo tactics. The route to speedy promotion is now the conventional force and not the nuclear force.

subba · 03-01-2007, 16:41 PM

OOe sir, fine point. Civilians hold the key in China. Probably true in India too.

But what prevents Pakistan not having 1st strike capability? Or North Korea? Even if civilian Kim holds the key. 1st strike is a capability. Any nation with nuclear weapons HAS 1st strike capability..

**Officer of Engineers** · 03-01-2007, 16:47 PM

Pak nukes are aircraft delivered which calls into question their ability to penetrate deep into Indian territory. The North Koreans don't have nukes. They tested a dud which meant they have to start from scratch. And their rockets explode more on the launch pads than on target.

kams · 03-01-2007, 18:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by subba

OOe sir, fine point. Civilians hold the key in China. Probably true in India too.

But what prevents Pakistan not having 1st strike capability? Or North Korea? Even if civilian Kim holds the key. 1st strike is a capability. Any nation with nuclear weapons HAS 1st strike capability..

Hmmm No. When we say First strike, aim is to take out enemy nuclear retaliatory capability, so as to give you a realistic chance of surviving retaliatory strike. No point in taking out couple of Enemy cities, only to have your whole nation converted to glass. To prevent this nations build suvivable nuclear capability i.e Mobile Missiles, Dispersed hardened Silo, Submarine based capability etc. and they build large arsenals to ensure some will survive. Now building and maintaining this kind of capability is extremely expensive. (There are some estimates that India's nuclear triad will cost as much as $200-$250 Billion to build and maintain. Unless you have the economy to support such arsenal, result will be ...Soviet Union.

Now all this supposed to rational nuclear deterence

. Throw in a irrational mullah, guess what will happen.

Zeng · 03-01-2007, 20:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kams

China has not extended its No first use policy to India.

Kams,

China‘s No first use policy applies to India and any nations.
Thanks for trusting that China will not be irresponsible on nuke use.

China‘s No first use policy from a China's web-link:
China affirms 'no first use' nuke policy

China‘s No first use policy from a non-China's web-link:
NTI: Issue Brief: The Strategic Realities of China's No-First-Use Policy

kams · 03-02-2007, 00:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zeng_xinren

Kams,

China‘s No first use policy applies to India and any nations.
Thanks for trusting that China will not be irresponsible on nuke use.

China‘s No first use policy from a China's web-link:
China affirms 'no first use' nuke policy

China‘s No first use policy from a non-China's web-link:
NTI: Issue Brief: The Strategic Realities of China's No-First-Use Policy

Zeng,
There are many interpretations of China's No first use policy, specifically wrt India. General consensus has been its not applicable to India.
1. One view is that Chinas NFU does not apply on its own soil. China considers Taiwan and large part of Arunachal pradesh as its territory.
2. Another view is that NFU applies to NPT signatories, India is not a signatory.

Indian strategists and policy makers contend that Chinas NFU does not apply to India and India's minimum deterrence is decided accordingly.

Militarythinker · 03-02-2007, 03:39 AM

I personally don't know if there will be nuclear weapon use in the next 30 years. However if there is, I would bet it won't be by any established government. It will probably some crazy terrorist organization that gets their hands on a dirty nuke. That way they can hide in another country and make it politically difficult for the country they hit to retaliate. Slimy buggers...

Dreadnought · 03-02-2007, 13:33 PM

IMO a definative NO. The first such action will send ripples through out the world. Whomever fires the first one can gladly have the U.S.'s place as bad guy on the block. Chances are the country that fired it would be sanctioned to no end War Crimes trials would ensue and you will see a reconfigure of Allies in that part of the world. The fall out from said attack would drift to other countries and spark retalliation from poisoning,bodies of water being poisoned, Livestock dead etc not to mention the death toll from sickness and disease. I strongly doubt that any leader/regime would be in power shortly thereafter much less alive after the trials.

Bluesman · 03-02-2007, 14:32 PM

I don't think you really 'get' the guys in Iran, then.

A-jad is the ideological descendent of Ayatollah Khomeini, so let's let HIM fill us in on how they see all that bad stuff that would happen to 'em if they busted a nuke:

Quote:

'We do not worship Iran, we worship Allah. For patriotism is another name for paganism. I say let this land [Iran] burn. I say let this land go up in smoke, provided Islam emerges triumphant in the rest of the world.'
Speech in Qom 1980

Now, I know it is human nature to flinch when one looks in the face of Evil. But that's going to get us all killed. So, can the ones among us that simply don't have the sack for what's coming PLEASE stop hampering us with their attempts to re-assure themselves that our enemies don't really mean what they say, and let the rest of us that take an enemy at his word get on with it already?

We are dealing with a fanatic and millenerian enemy, one that seeks death, is, in fact, in love with the concept of death on a massive scale. He seeks Paradise through his own death, and although this is hard for a Westerner to get his head around, he is NOT about the Here and the Now, he's about the Sweet By-and-By, the Hereafter. Temporal arrangements, like holding power in Iran or anywhere else is simply of no account whatsoever, except as a means to that end. They embrace death: their own, yours, mine, everybody else's, too.

You need to get ahold of that.

leib10 · 03-02-2007, 15:28 PM

Yes, I'd say there's a very high chance that somebody, somewhere will employ nuclear weapons.

Dreadnought · 03-02-2007, 16:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bluesman

I don't think you really 'get' the guys in Iran, then.

A-jad is the ideological descendent of Ayatollah Khomeini, so let's let HIM fill us in on how they see all that bad stuff that would happen to 'em if they busted a nuke:

Now, I know it is human nature to flinch when one looks in the face of Evil. But that's going to get us all killed. So, can the ones among us that simply don't have the sack for what's coming PLEASE stop hampering us with their attempts to re-assure themselves that our enemies don't really mean what they say, and let the rest of us that take an enemy at his word get on with it already?

We are dealing with a fanatic and millenerian enemy, one that seeks death, is, in fact, in love with the concept of death on a massive scale. He seeks Paradise through his own death, and although this is hard for a Westerner to get his head around, he is NOT about the Here and the Now, he's about the Sweet By-and-By, the Hereafter. Temporal arrangements, like holding power in Iran or anywhere else is simply of no account whatsoever, except as a means to that end. They embrace death: their own, yours, mine, everybody else's, too.

You need to get ahold of that.

Agreed Blues but we cant compare this man and this regime to a civilized nation. The people yes,their government and the way they govern not a chance. I think they will boot him before it comes to a head and some other crackpot will be put in place to see what will be next.

I fully agree with you about you observation though.

Can paradise be found on Mars? That is after he lands there via warp speed ?

Militarythinker · 03-02-2007, 16:36 PM

But that is what I am saying. It isn't going to be some civilized government that does it. Any human with a brain in their head knows the ramifications of launching. It is going to be some wack-job fanatic that sets it off and pisses everyone off.

Dreadnought · 03-02-2007, 16:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Militarythinker

But that is what I am saying. It isn't going to be some civilized government that does it. Any human with a brain in their head knows the ramifications of launching. It is going to be some wack-job fanatic that sets it off and pisses everyone off.

Hopefully someone with common sense shoots the bastard first.

View Poll Results: Do you expect nuclear weapons to be employed sometime in the next 30 years?
Yes	36	75.00%
No	12	25.00%
Voters: 48. You may not vote on this poll

03-01-2007, 16:21 PM	#33 (permalink)
Officer of Engineers *Military Professional* Moderator Scotch taster Join Date: 08-06-03 Posts: 15,915 Country:	In the case of the Chinese, the military, the 2nd Artillery Force, has been so frustrated with the civilians, the Central Military Commission, who holds the keys to the nukes that even during exercises, the 2AF could not even get the civies to practice to get their keys out. That frustration has resulted in the 2AF giving up on nukes and going the conventional route. The Chinese pioneered in MRBM and IRBM barrage salvo tactics. The route to speedy promotion is now the conventional force and not the nuclear force. __________________ Chimo

03-02-2007, 03:39 AM	#39 (permalink)
Militarythinker Regular Join Date: 02-27-07 Posts: 44	I personally don't know if there will be nuclear weapon use in the next 30 years. However if there is, I would bet it won't be by any established government. It will probably some crazy terrorist organization that gets their hands on a dirty nuke. That way they can hide in another country and make it politically difficult for the country they hit to retaliate. Slimy buggers... __________________ MT . . .

03-02-2007, 13:33 PM	#40 (permalink)
Dreadnought *Senior Contributor* Join Date: 05-12-05 Posts: 5,318 Country:	IMO a definative NO. The first such action will send ripples through out the world. Whomever fires the first one can gladly have the U.S.'s place as bad guy on the block. Chances are the country that fired it would be sanctioned to no end War Crimes trials would ensue and you will see a reconfigure of Allies in that part of the world. The fall out from said attack would drift to other countries and spark retalliation from poisoning,bodies of water being poisoned, Livestock dead etc not to mention the death toll from sickness and disease. I strongly doubt that any leader/regime would be in power shortly thereafter much less alive after the trials. __________________ Fortitude.....The strength to persist...The courage to endure.

03-02-2007, 15:28 PM	#42 (permalink)
leib10 HKHolic *Senior Contributor* Join Date: 02-17-05 Location: Lubbock, TX Posts: 3,240 Country:	Yes, I'd say there's a very high chance that somebody, somewhere will employ nuclear weapons. __________________ "The right man in the wrong place can make all the difference in the world. So wake up, Mr. Freeman. Wake up and smell the ashes." G-Man

03-01-2007, 16:41 PM	#34 (permalink)
subba Patron Join Date: 01-10-07 Posts: 282	OOe sir, fine point. Civilians hold the key in China. Probably true in India too. But what prevents Pakistan not having 1st strike capability? Or North Korea? Even if civilian Kim holds the key. 1st strike is a capability. Any nation with nuclear weapons HAS 1st strike capability..

03-01-2007, 16:47 PM	#35 (permalink)
Officer of Engineers *Military Professional* Moderator Scotch taster Join Date: 08-06-03 Posts: 15,915 Country:	Pak nukes are aircraft delivered which calls into question their ability to penetrate deep into Indian territory. The North Koreans don't have nukes. They tested a dud which meant they have to start from scratch. And their rockets explode more on the launch pads than on target.

03-02-2007, 16:36 PM	#44 (permalink)
Militarythinker Regular Join Date: 02-27-07 Posts: 44	But that is what I am saying. It isn't going to be some civilized government that does it. Any human with a brain in their head knows the ramifications of launching. It is going to be some wack-job fanatic that sets it off and pisses everyone off.

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