Flexing Muscle, China Destroys Satellite in Test

tim52 · 01-18-2007, 09:47 AM

Chinese Test Anti-Satellite Weapon

By Craig Covault, Aviation Week & Space Technology, Cape Canaveral

Wednesday, January 17, 2007

U. S. intelligence agencies believe China performed a successful anti-satellite (asat) weapons test at more than 500 mi. altitude Jan. 11 destroying an aging Chinese weather satellite target with a kinetic kill vehicle launched on board a ballistic missile.

The Central Intelligence Agency, the National Security Agency, the Defense Intelligence Agency, NASA and other government organizations have a full court press underway to obtain data on the alleged test, Aviation Week & Space Technology reports on its web site Aviationnow.com.

If the test is verified it will signify a major new Chinese military capability.
Neither the Office of the U. S. Secretary of Defense nor Air Force Space Command would comment on the attack, which followed by several months the alleged illumination of a U. S. military spacecraft by a Chinese ground based laser.

China's growing military space capability is one major reason the Bush Administration last year formed the nation's first new National Space Policy in ten years, Aviation Week will report in its Jan. 22 issue.

"The policy is designed to ensure that our space capabilities are protected in a time of increasing challenges and threats," says Robert G. Joseph, Under Secretary for Arms Control and International Security at the U. S. State Dept.

"This is imperative because space capabilities are vital to our national security and to our economic well being," Joseph said in an address on the new space policy at the National Press Club in Washington D. C.

Details emerging from space sources indicate that the Chinese Feng Yun 1C (FY-1C) polar orbit weather satellite launched in 1999 was attacked by an asat system launched from or near the Xichang Space Center.

The attack is believed to have occurred as the weather satellite flew at 530 mi. altitude 4 deg. west of Xichang located in Sichuan province. Xichang is a major Chinese space launch center.

Although intelligence agencies must complete confirmation of the test, the attack is believed to have occurred at about 5:28 p.m. EST Jan. 11. U. S. intelligence agencies had been expecting some sort of test that day, sources said.

U. S. Air Force Defense Support Program missile warning satellites in geosynchronous orbit would have detected the Xichang launch of the asat kill vehicle and U. S. Air Force Space Command monitored the FY-1C orbit both before and after the exercise.

The test, if it occurred as envisioned by intelligence source, could also have left considerable space debris in an orbit used by many different satellites.
USAF radar reports on the Chinese FY-1C spacecraft have been posted once or twice daily for years, but those reports jumped to about 4 times per day just before the alleged test.

The USAF radar reports then ceased Jan. 11, but then appeared for a day showing "signs of orbital distress". The reports were then halted again. The Air Force radars may well be busy cataloging many pieces of debris, sources said.

Although more of a "policy weapon" at this time, the test shows that the Chinese military can threaten the imaging reconnaissance satellites operated by the U. S., Japan, Russia, Israel and Europe.

The Republic of China also operates a small imaging spacecraft that can photograph objects as small as about 10 ft. in size, a capability good enough to count cruise missiles pointed at Taiwan from the Chinese mainland. The Taiwanese in the past have also leased capability on an Israeli reconnaissance satellite.

Swift Sword · 01-18-2007, 11:01 AM

Though it is a logical move on the part of the Chinese in efforts to offset other Powers' space based capabilities, it is a fairly provacative course of action.

Steps should be taken to curb the proliferation of ASAT technologies and systems. A rouge state or even worse a violent, non state actor could wreak havoc at the push of a button.

Military satellites aside, a strike against the spaced based components of the Global communications net could cause all sorts of trouble in that marketplace: everything from dropped calls to spikes in insurance rates, launch fees, etc. etc. (of course these satellites tend to be in higher orbits).

William

subba · 01-18-2007, 20:07 PM

How difficult is this to do? I can track satellite orbits from earth. I shoot off a rocket that lingers in space for some time. Command a module when it's orbit is in range and send a seeker with some radar guidance to knock it off. I think the nonlinear dynamics of a missile entering the atmosphere are more complex than hitting one in outer space. Anyways i am speculating.

Ray · 01-19-2007, 11:55 AM

Quote:

Flexing Muscle, China Destroys Satellite in Test

By WILLIAM J. BROAD and DAVID E. SANGER
Published: January 19, 2007

China successfully carried out its first test of an antisatellite weapon last week, signaling its resolve to play a major role in military space activities and bringing expressions of concern from Washington and other capitals, the Bush administration said yesterday.

Only two nations — the Soviet Union and the United States — have previously destroyed spacecraft in antisatellite tests, most recently the United States in the mid-1980s.

Arms control experts called the test, in which the weapon destroyed an aging Chinese weather satellite, a troubling development that could foreshadow an antisatellite arms race. Alternatively, however, some experts speculated that it could precede a diplomatic effort by China to prod the Bush administration into negotiations on a weapons ban.

“This is the first real escalation in the weaponization of space that we’ve seen in 20 years,” said Jonathan McDowell, a Harvard astronomer who tracks rocket launchings and space activity. “It ends a long period of restraint.”

White House officials said the United States and other nations, which they did not identify, had “expressed our concern regarding this action to the Chinese.” Despite its protest, the Bush administration has long resisted a global treaty banning such tests because it says it needs freedom of action in space.

Jianhua Li, a spokesman at the Chinese Embassy in Washington, said that he had heard about the antisatellite story but that he had no statement or information.

At a time when China is modernizing its nuclear weapons, expanding the reach of its navy and sending astronauts into orbit for the first time, the test appears to mark a new sphere of technical and military competition. American officials complained yesterday that China had made no public or private announcements about its test, despite repeated requests by American officials for more openness about its actions.

The weather satellite hit by the weapon had circled the globe at an altitude of roughly 500 miles. In theory, the test means that China can now hit American spy satellites, which orbit closer to Earth. The satellites presumably in range of the Chinese missile include most of the imagery satellites used for basic military reconnaissance, which are essentially the eyes of the American intelligence community for military movements, potential nuclear tests and even some counterterrorism, and commercial satellites.

Experts said the weather satellite’s speeding remnants could pose a threat to other satellites for years or even decades.

In late August, President Bush authorized a new national space policy that ignored calls for a global prohibition on such tests. The policy said the United States would “preserve its rights, capabilities, and freedom of action in space” and “dissuade or deter others from either impeding those rights or developing capabilities intended to do so.” It declared the United States would “deny, if necessary, adversaries the use of space capabilities hostile to U.S. national interests.”

The Chinese test “could be a shot across the bow,” said Theresa Hitchens, director of the Center for Defense Information, a private group in Washington that tracks military programs. “For several years, the Russians and Chinese have been trying to push a treaty to ban space weapons. The concept of exhibiting a hard-power capability to bring somebody to the negotiating table is a classic cold war technique.”

Gary Samore, the director of studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, said in an interview: “I think it makes perfect sense for the Chinese to do this both for deterrence and to hedge their bets. It puts pressure on the U.S. to negotiate agreements not to weaponize space.”

Ms. Hitchens and other critics have accused the administration of conducting secret research on advanced antisatellite weapons using lasers, which are considered a far speedier and more powerful way of destroying satellites than the weapons of two decades ago.

The White House statement, issued by the National Security Council, said China’s “development and testing of such weapons is inconsistent with the spirit of cooperation that both countries aspire to in the civil space area.”

The antisatellite test was first reported late Wednesday on the Web site of Aviation Week and Space Technology, an industry magazine. It said intelligence agencies had yet to “complete confirmation of the test.”

The test, the magazine said, appeared to employ a ground-based interceptor that used the sheer force of impact rather than an exploding warhead to shatter the satellite.

Dr. McDowell of Harvard said the satellite was known as Feng Yun, or “wind and cloud.” Launched in 1999, it was the third in a series. He said that it was a cube measuring 4.6 feet on each side, and that its solar panels extended about 28 feet. He added that it was due for retirement but that it still appeared to be electronically alive, making it an ideal target.

“If it stops working,” he said, “you know you have a successful hit.”

David C. Wright, a senior scientist at the Union of Concerned Scientists, a private group in Cambridge, Mass., said he calculated that the Chinese satellite had shattered into 800 fragments four inches wide or larger, and millions of smaller pieces.

The Soviet Union conducted roughly a dozen antisatellite tests from 1968 to 1982, Dr. McDowell said, adding that the Reagan administration carried out its experiments in 1985 and 1986.

The Bush administration has conducted research that critics say could produce a powerful ground-based laser weapon that would be used against enemy satellites.

The largely secret project, parts of which were made public through Air Force budget documents submitted to Congress last year, appears to be part of a wide-ranging administration effort to develop space weapons, both defensive and offensive.

The administration’s laser research is far more ambitious than a previous effort by the Clinton administration to develop an antisatellite laser, though the administration denies that it is an attempt to build a laser weapon.

The current research takes advantage of an optical technique that uses sensors, computers and flexible mirrors to counteract the atmospheric turbulence that seems to make stars twinkle. The weapon would essentially reverse that process, shooting focused beams of light upward with great clarity and force.

Michael Krepon, co-founder of the Henry L. Stimson Center, a group that studies national security, called the Chinese test very un-Chinese.

“There’s nothing subtle about this,” he said. “They’ve created a huge debris cloud that will last a quarter century or more. It’s at a higher elevation than the test we did in 1985, and for that one the last trackable debris took 17 years to clear out.”

Mr. Krepon added that the administration had long argued that the world needed no space-weapons treaty because no such arms existed and because the last tests were two decades ago. “It seems,” he said, “that argument is no longer operative.”

Mark Mazzetti contributed reporting.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/19/wo...in&oref=slogin

The Chinese have established their scientific and technological prowess with this test as also has signalled that unless there is a test ban in space as they had wanted earlier, she would go ahead with greater innovation.

The US is developing the laser weapon and that would be better than what Russia or China has been able to do.

Nonetheless, it opens up the race for these types of weapons.

That the Chinese have been successful in many military advanced technology as also the fact that they are modernising their military with haste is indeed a n indication that the world will become more dangerous than before.

Though it is debatable, the Cold War was dangerous, but one could understand the Russian mind to a great extent. The Chinese mind is very difficult to understand. That adds to the danger that the world will face in the future!

**astralis** · 01-19-2007, 12:02 PM

ray,

Quote:

but one could understand the Russian mind to a great extent. The Chinese mind is very difficult to understand. That adds to the danger that the world will face in the future!

i don't know about understanding the russian mind! our kreminologists couldn't even predict the fall of the USSR.

Tronic · 01-19-2007, 12:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ray

also has signalled that unless there is a test ban in space as they had wanted earlier, she would go ahead with greater innovation.

I think that is reasonable...

Swift Sword · 01-20-2007, 08:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by subba

How difficult is this to do? I can track satellite orbits from earth. I shoot off a rocket that lingers in space for some time. Command a module when it's orbit is in range and send a seeker with some radar guidance to knock it off. I think the nonlinear dynamics of a missile entering the atmosphere are more complex than hitting one in outer space. Anyways i am speculating.

subba,

My knowledge of the subject is rather limited but your specualtions are pretty much on the mark viz the groundtrack of objects in orbit.

Many important orbital assets of a commercial, research and military nature are in high enough orbits that only nations with an advanced space launch capability will be able to hit them which rules out a few of the emerging threats.

However, there are more than a few juicy targets in lower orbits that we should be concerned about.

For instance, (if I understand the system correctly) the SBIRS used to detect missle launches are in lower orbits by neccessity and they would be choice targets for a first strike by a power that wanted to launch missles at somebody.

The ISS is, IIRC, "only" a hundred some odd miles up. I suppose anybody who shot at it would not make too many friends but someone who thought it was an affront to God or something might have a go at it.

As to how to kill satellites, it can be done even cheaper than using guided munitions. An enterprising bad guy with access to or the capability to produce an SLV can simply place a debris field in the orbit ahead of the satellite.

A pail of 00 buckshot would probably do the trick; satellites are pretty flimsy in construction and flying though that cloud of blue whistlers at 15,000 miles an hour will not do them well.

Threats to satellites that have a much lower opportunity cost might include blinding them with lasers, possibly hacking into guidance commands to change and orbit and cause a collision, etc.

Related to Topic: you might find NASA's JTrack-3D a very useful tool when contemplating the strategic implications of ASAT:

NASA - Science@NASA J-Track 3D

It is a bit resource intensive so depending on your capabilities it might take a minute to get going.

Regards,

William

**Officer of Engineers** · 01-20-2007, 13:01 PM

The Chinese are strangely quiet on the subject which lead me to believe that they did not think the politics through or that the reaction was not what they expected.

Ray · 01-20-2007, 14:06 PM

The same issue is at International Defence Topics

Flexing Muscle, China Destroys Satellite in Test

Swift Sword · 01-20-2007, 19:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers

The Chinese are strangely quiet on the subject which lead me to believe that they did not think the politics through or that the reaction was not what they expected.

Sir,

That is entirely possible.

A few observations:

1. On the up side, the Polar orbits seem to be a little less populated, FWIW;

[SUSPICIOUS OF THE COMPETITION MODE ON]

2. The Chinese are not stupid in many respects (maybe in this instance, perhaps, naturally) and they seem to take a long view.

It could be that in a policy relevant time frame that this might be a twist on the area denial strategy: poison the orbit now to increase the risk to anyone who wants to put something in or in the vicinity of that orbit in the next dozen years.

I recall the lamentation of a general several centuries ago "all the best fords are choked with caltrops".

I wonder what the ground track of the debris field from the test is?

Perhaps they wish to hide something under it in the future or force other people to look at something sideways or from a resolution prohibitive altitude;

3. This test was a trial balloon to gauge political reaction, R & D, see how USAF Space Command handles the tracking chores to assess capabilities, let their own launch and ASAT capabilities be of record for future action at the treaty table, etc., etc.

[SUSPICIOUS OF THE COMPETITION MODE OFF]

I will defer to your expertise in the area of the inner machinations of the Chinese military mind for a better grasp of the political aspects of the situation.

Regards,

William

neilmpenny · 01-20-2007, 20:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers

The Chinese are strangely quiet on the subject which lead me to believe that they did not think the politics through or that the reaction was not what they expected.

They never ever comment on such matters. They knew exactly what they were doing and what to expect. They did exactly what the US and the Russians were doing in the 80's and as far as they are concerned, if you can do it then so can we. The Iranians have the same point of view towards their nuclear capability.

subba · 01-21-2007, 17:27 PM

Swiftsword sir, thank you for your erudite reply. I think there are better ways of destroying a satellite than the crude manner the Chinese have done and littered debris all over. For that matter any TD & H country can launch rockets with payloads of debris to interfere with satellites. I feel pretty disgusted with what the Chinese have done, not impressed.

Tronic · 01-21-2007, 18:32 PM

Subba, what are you talking about??? The Chinese did not strap debris onto a rocket, lol.. the debris is from the destroyed sattelite... and you cannot really call it crude, the only other way to do it would be to take out sattelites with a laser but even that would leave debris...

**Officer of Engineers** · 01-21-2007, 19:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by neilmpenny

They never ever comment on such matters.

Of course they do. Nuclear tests, Missile Tests, the new Yuan, the man space flights. They'll blab more often than not to make their point.

Quote:

Originally Posted by neilmpenny

They knew exactly what they were doing and what to expect.

In this case, no, I don't think they expected this big of a debris cloud.

Quote:

Originally Posted by neilmpenny

They did exactly what the US and the Russians were doing in the 80's and as far as they are concerned, if you can do it then so can we.

Nothing as disastrous as this.

Quote:

Originally Posted by neilmpenny

The Iranians have the same point of view towards their nuclear capability.

The Iranians signed the NPT.

dave lukins · 01-21-2007, 19:43 PM

Tell me..Did the "West" not know that the Chinese where about to fire a rocket into "space"..if not Intelligence is lacking!!

01-18-2007, 09:47 AM	#1 (permalink)
tim52 Contributor Join Date: 02-13-06 Location: Fort Lauderdale FL Posts: 474 Country:	Chinese Test Anti-Satellite Weapon Chinese Test Anti-Satellite Weapon By Craig Covault, Aviation Week & Space Technology, Cape Canaveral Wednesday, January 17, 2007 U. S. intelligence agencies believe China performed a successful anti-satellite (asat) weapons test at more than 500 mi. altitude Jan. 11 destroying an aging Chinese weather satellite target with a kinetic kill vehicle launched on board a ballistic missile. The Central Intelligence Agency, the National Security Agency, the Defense Intelligence Agency, NASA and other government organizations have a full court press underway to obtain data on the alleged test, Aviation Week & Space Technology reports on its web site Aviationnow.com. If the test is verified it will signify a major new Chinese military capability. Neither the Office of the U. S. Secretary of Defense nor Air Force Space Command would comment on the attack, which followed by several months the alleged illumination of a U. S. military spacecraft by a Chinese ground based laser. China's growing military space capability is one major reason the Bush Administration last year formed the nation's first new National Space Policy in ten years, Aviation Week will report in its Jan. 22 issue. "The policy is designed to ensure that our space capabilities are protected in a time of increasing challenges and threats," says Robert G. Joseph, Under Secretary for Arms Control and International Security at the U. S. State Dept. "This is imperative because space capabilities are vital to our national security and to our economic well being," Joseph said in an address on the new space policy at the National Press Club in Washington D. C. Details emerging from space sources indicate that the Chinese Feng Yun 1C (FY-1C) polar orbit weather satellite launched in 1999 was attacked by an asat system launched from or near the Xichang Space Center. The attack is believed to have occurred as the weather satellite flew at 530 mi. altitude 4 deg. west of Xichang located in Sichuan province. Xichang is a major Chinese space launch center. Although intelligence agencies must complete confirmation of the test, the attack is believed to have occurred at about 5:28 p.m. EST Jan. 11. U. S. intelligence agencies had been expecting some sort of test that day, sources said. U. S. Air Force Defense Support Program missile warning satellites in geosynchronous orbit would have detected the Xichang launch of the asat kill vehicle and U. S. Air Force Space Command monitored the FY-1C orbit both before and after the exercise. The test, if it occurred as envisioned by intelligence source, could also have left considerable space debris in an orbit used by many different satellites. USAF radar reports on the Chinese FY-1C spacecraft have been posted once or twice daily for years, but those reports jumped to about 4 times per day just before the alleged test. The USAF radar reports then ceased Jan. 11, but then appeared for a day showing "signs of orbital distress". The reports were then halted again. The Air Force radars may well be busy cataloging many pieces of debris, sources said. Although more of a "policy weapon" at this time, the test shows that the Chinese military can threaten the imaging reconnaissance satellites operated by the U. S., Japan, Russia, Israel and Europe. The Republic of China also operates a small imaging spacecraft that can photograph objects as small as about 10 ft. in size, a capability good enough to count cruise missiles pointed at Taiwan from the Chinese mainland. The Taiwanese in the past have also leased capability on an Israeli reconnaissance satellite. __________________ Buy the ticket, take the ride.

01-18-2007, 11:01 AM	#2 (permalink)
Swift Sword *Senior Contributor* Join Date: 10-23-05 Location: Carl Perkins' Cadillac Posts: 778	Though it is a logical move on the part of the Chinese in efforts to offset other Powers' space based capabilities, it is a fairly provacative course of action. Steps should be taken to curb the proliferation of ASAT technologies and systems. A rouge state or even worse a violent, non state actor could wreak havoc at the push of a button. Military satellites aside, a strike against the spaced based components of the Global communications net could cause all sorts of trouble in that marketplace: everything from dropped calls to spikes in insurance rates, launch fees, etc. etc. (of course these satellites tend to be in higher orbits). William __________________ Pharoh was pimp but now he is dead. What are you going to do today?

01-20-2007, 13:01 PM	#8 (permalink)
Officer of Engineers *Military Professional* Moderator Scotch taster Join Date: 08-06-03 Posts: 17,064 Country:	The Chinese are strangely quiet on the subject which lead me to believe that they did not think the politics through or that the reaction was not what they expected. __________________ Chimo

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01-18-2007, 20:07 PM	#3 (permalink)
subba Patron Join Date: 01-10-07 Posts: 282	How difficult is this to do? I can track satellite orbits from earth. I shoot off a rocket that lingers in space for some time. Command a module when it's orbit is in range and send a seeker with some radar guidance to knock it off. I think the nonlinear dynamics of a missile entering the atmosphere are more complex than hitting one in outer space. Anyways i am speculating.

01-20-2007, 14:06 PM	#9 (permalink)
Ray Postmaster General *Military Professional* Join Date: 08-20-03 Posts: 28,269 Country:	The same issue is at International Defence Topics Flexing Muscle, China Destroys Satellite in Test

01-21-2007, 17:27 PM	#12 (permalink)
subba Patron Join Date: 01-10-07 Posts: 282	Swiftsword sir, thank you for your erudite reply. I think there are better ways of destroying a satellite than the crude manner the Chinese have done and littered debris all over. For that matter any TD & H country can launch rockets with payloads of debris to interfere with satellites. I feel pretty disgusted with what the Chinese have done, not impressed.

01-21-2007, 18:32 PM	#13 (permalink)
Tronic Navajo Code Talker *Senior Contributor* Join Date: 12-27-04 Location: Patiala, India Posts: 5,433 Country:	Subba, what are you talking about??? The Chinese did not strap debris onto a rocket, lol.. the debris is from the destroyed sattelite... and you cannot really call it crude, the only other way to do it would be to take out sattelites with a laser but even that would leave debris...

01-21-2007, 19:43 PM	#15 (permalink)
dave lukins *Military Professional* Join Date: 01-04-07 Location: cheshire uk Posts: 5,504 Country:	Tell me..Did the "West" not know that the Chinese where about to fire a rocket into "space"..if not Intelligence is lacking!!

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