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Old 11-24-2006, 13:47 PM   #31 (permalink)
Archer
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Originally Posted by tphuang View Post
generally, the export restrictions have been declining. It's not just about the Russians, the Chinese are not desperate either.
There is no such thing! If anything, in recent years, with all the oil money flowing in and Putin bringing in some leadership stability at the centre, the Russians are being more hardnosed than before. It is entirely this attitude at the center that several firms have run into, even as they tried landing lucrative but technology supplier deals with the PRC and even India.

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As for Bars vs V, well since Bars is not the export version of V, it naturally doesn't have to be less capable than V.
Dont you get it? In the case of China, they created an export version in specific, which was downgraded compared to what the Russian AF has. Therein lies the difference.

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I would think that China would want cooperations on certain areas like RAM technology rather than the whole plane, since it has its own designs.
True, but thats the whole point, whether Russia will allow piecemeal access to the aircrafts systems, and what grade avionics and systems will be provided. India took one look at the PAK-FA and decided that it wanted much greater say in the whole process, and hence asked for MiG to join the bidding as well. Whether China will be offered this, is another issue.

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if su-33/su-34 is allowed to be exported to China, I don't see why the statements about su-35 would be invalid. But again, I have only read a short summary of the Janes article. I need to read the entire article for more information.
You are still missing the point by a mile and a half. Russia will sell you their alphabet soup Flankers, but with a few more alphabets tacked on, to signify that the version sold to the PRC is indeed different, and has some downgraded avionics fits. They have a track record of doing so, and will only allow that level of technology which the PRC has shown itself capable of developing on its own or is not a threat to them since its not an offensive system (Eg SAMs). In such cases, it makes more sense for them to get as many roubles as possible, asap.
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Old 11-25-2006, 13:48 PM   #32 (permalink)
tphuang
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Originally Posted by Archer View Post
There is no such thing! If anything, in recent years, with all the oil money flowing in and Putin bringing in some leadership stability at the centre, the Russians are being more hardnosed than before. It is entirely this attitude at the center that several firms have run into, even as they tried landing lucrative but technology supplier deals with the PRC and even India.
Whatever you say, but they have offered stuff to China they definitely did not offer before.
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Dont you get it? In the case of China, they created an export version in specific, which was downgraded compared to what the Russian AF has. Therein lies the difference.
where did I say I didn't think it's downgraded? You obviously need to read what I wrote again.
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True, but thats the whole point, whether Russia will allow piecemeal access to the aircrafts systems, and what grade avionics and systems will be provided. India took one look at the PAK-FA and decided that it wanted much greater say in the whole process, and hence asked for MiG to join the bidding as well. Whether China will be offered this, is another issue.
the thing is China doesn't want to be offered that either. It won't mind cooperating with Russians, it will speed up its own development. But the development of 5th generation fighter in China can be done without Russian involvement.
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You are still missing the point by a mile and a half. Russia will sell you their alphabet soup Flankers, but with a few more alphabets tacked on, to signify that the version sold to the PRC is indeed different, and has some downgraded avionics fits. They have a track record of doing so, and will only allow that level of technology which the PRC has shown itself capable of developing on its own or is not a threat to them since its not an offensive system (Eg SAMs). In such cases, it makes more sense for them to get as many roubles as possible, asap.
We will see with su-33 deal and what kind of avionics it will get. I can tell you that the window is closing for sukhoi.
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Old 11-25-2006, 23:45 PM   #33 (permalink)
gf0012-aust
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Originally Posted by Archer View Post
You are still missing the point by a mile and a half. Russia will sell you their alphabet soup Flankers, but with a few more alphabets tacked on, to signify that the version sold to the PRC is indeed different, and has some downgraded avionics fits. They have a track record of doing so, and will only allow that level of technology which the PRC has shown itself capable of developing on its own or is not a threat to them since its not an offensive system (Eg SAMs). In such cases, it makes more sense for them to get as many roubles as possible, asap.
I think you'll find that China doesn't really care about sourcing complete systems - upgraded systems would be preferable, but if she scores base platforms then she can add and modify COTS/Dual Use/Acquired tech into them.

At the moment she's got access to technology elements that the Russians are not considered good at.

A small list of examples:
  • german maritime engines
  • composite technology compliments of Boeing and Airbus
  • aircraft grade machining capability compliments of Cincinatti
  • Maritime sensor suites compliments of France and Scotland
  • aviation sensor suites compliments of Israel
  • aircraft management systems compliments of the US (ADB aircraft management, based on the prototype australian CA model)
  • twin hull ship design (the 2208 FPB was based on an australian design that was supposed to be a partnership for civlian small fast cats)
  • computing technology and research divisions compliments of the IBM buyout of Lexmark
  • Submarine propellor technology compliments of Toshiba (an unwilling partner by criminal default)
  • Cruise missile engine technology compliments of the US (Williams SBJ engines)

US Homeland Security provided a Congressional Report last year into the extent of Chinese espionage - they are rated as the highest and most competent threat that the US faces.

Fundamentally, if the Russians don't provide what they want, they have the resources and the emerging competencies to deconstruct and re-engineer it.

The chinese govt has the political will and intent, and focus to get what they want over a timeframe of their choosing.

Too many people underestimate their long term resolve. This is not pre-1991 China.
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Old 11-30-2006, 00:38 AM   #34 (permalink)
Archer
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Originally Posted by gf0012-aust View Post
I think you'll find that China doesn't really care about sourcing complete systems - upgraded systems would be preferable, but if she scores base platforms then she can add and modify COTS/Dual Use/Acquired tech into them.

At the moment she's got access to technology elements that the Russians are not considered good at.

A small list of examples:
  • german maritime engines
  • composite technology compliments of Boeing and Airbus
  • aircraft grade machining capability compliments of Cincinatti
  • Maritime sensor suites compliments of France and Scotland
  • aviation sensor suites compliments of Israel
  • aircraft management systems compliments of the US (ADB aircraft management, based on the prototype australian CA model)
  • twin hull ship design (the 2208 FPB was based on an australian design that was supposed to be a partnership for civlian small fast cats)
  • computing technology and research divisions compliments of the IBM buyout of Lexmark
  • Submarine propellor technology compliments of Toshiba (an unwilling partner by criminal default)
  • Cruise missile engine technology compliments of the US (Williams SBJ engines)

US Homeland Security provided a Congressional Report last year into the extent of Chinese espionage - they are rated as the highest and most competent threat that the US faces.

Fundamentally, if the Russians don't provide what they want, they have the resources and the emerging competencies to deconstruct and re-engineer it.

The chinese govt has the political will and intent, and focus to get what they want over a timeframe of their choosing.

Too many people underestimate their long term resolve. This is not pre-1991 China.
GF_Aust,

They do so because their local industry cannot provide those items, and its pragmatic to use foreign subsystems as necessary which is entirely reasonable of them. My point is that the Chinese services currently have access to Grade-B Russian items (for the most part)- which are still fairly capable (ie a Su-27SK against a non upgraded IAF MiG-29A, and which has the edge?), but if unrestricted access to most topgrade items was permitted, we'd actually see much of the hoopla about chinas local systems disappear, to be replaced by a much less nationalistic but sober assessment of a chinese military apparatus, which would have access to top grade stuff, in terms of complete systems, not just components. That would raise their military ability something fierce. To put a fine point on it- the thought of a PLAAF with 100 Mirage 2000-5s would alarm the IAF more than a PLAAF with double the number of J-10s etc.

I totally agree that they are excellent at espionage and their local R&D efforts are nothing to sneer at, I was just pointing out that when it comes to procurement, all services are the same. They want maximal bang for their buck and dont like being captive customers. Chinas political issues have made them so, but if they were offered a choice from elsewhere, they would be sorely tempted.
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