Francois

For a number of years now, China has been working hard and somewhat managed to pull the US from the South East Asia, where it has its biggest claims, namely the whole South China Sea (SCS).

The idea is a long term work of isolation of each country bordeing the sea.
For that, several directions:

• Exclusively two-sided agreement signed for each other contender
• Asking the countries via diplomatic and hidden ways to disclose the US/EU for any defence agreements
• Forbidding indirectly the Western military support for security issues (i.e. fighting piracy)

The isolation is working well. That plus the two-sided agreements, the contenders dealed one-by-one will have no choice but wait for their turn.

This way, China can go and secure the whole SCS pretty easily, up to Malacca.
I believe the isolation of Taiwan and Japan are part of the game too.
By closing the straight, Taiwan will starve, and Japan has no choice but go all the way around.

One sigle aircraft carrier may be more then useful to maintain air superiority agaisnt small countries (what can Malaysia do against 20/30 Su-33 with her handful of SH that barely fly?).

I believe that China has noway today but to go to war.
And a vision of China ranging from Aseh to Kyushu is not a only dream.

Problem is: How to deal with:
1- Singapore (but the chinese diaspora represents 80% of the population)
2- Skorea (fielding a new and puwerful projection tool)
3- Japan (presently can't be threaten by china)

The answer for the two seconds is: asphixy. Prevent the air from coming in.
They will have to attack, and will be the bads.

awangmamat

Long-term, the countries of South East Asia will look to ASEAN to form an economic and political bloc to as an answer to a potentially overbearing China (or India). Militarily, the USN is seen as as the preferred counter-weight to the Chinese (or Indian) military in the seas of the inner island chain. Even in Malaysia which has historically preferred non-alignment you will find regular visits by American warships to various ports all along its coast. These include CVN battlegroups which was almost unthinkable up to 10 years ago.

The irony is that 600 years ago it was the protection afforded by Admiral Zheng He and his Treasure Fleet against the regional powers of Ayudedya and Majapahit that gave rise to the Malaccan Sultanate (from which modern Malaysia traces it genesis).

-{SpoonmaN}-

Well, for a start, the RMAF could throw their new SupeHornets, their own StrikeFlankers and their Fulcrums against those 20-30 flankers, as well as using their considerable FAC forces to attack any PLA forces stupid enough to come close. In short, they could do quite a lot.
Yes, Singapore is largely ethnic Chinese, but you're kidding yourself if you think they'd ever be willing to accept the PRC forcing control of SE Asia. And you forget one thing, and that is that 1 CV is probably more of a liability than an asset, since the PLA would have to call off all its operations if this single carrier was damaged (not hard, you can take out the elevators, the conning tower, punch a few holes in the flight deck, wreck the catapults), let alone destoryed. It'll take more than building the carrier to make the PLA-N a true regional force, they're gonna need the large fleet of escorts and support ships, they're going to need to train the flightcrews, not to mention the engineers, defence gunners and deck crews and technitians to operate the thing, they're going to need to specialist aircraft, and most importantly, they're going to need to work out how to operate all these things in sync effectively. In short, carriers are a ***** of a thing to have to actually use, and thats why the PLA doesn't have one yet.

__________________
"I have this to say to the people of Australia: Kick me, I'm different."

HKDan

Francois,
I have to disagree with your assertion here. While it is true that the PLAN is putting some serious effort into becoming a force to be reconed with, they still have a long way to go before they can reach parity with the JSDF, much less the USN. The idea of them making any serious attempt to close the Straights of Malacca is crazy talk. They simply are not at that stage of development yet.

Francois

Malays has a lot of problems making flying their few planes. And they lack good pilots, and they are too spread over the country.
And I am not sure the Scorpenes will be good for a long time.

Please notice that ALL PLA-N's big boats (amphibs too) and best subs are in this area, not in front of Taiwan or Japan.
So, the showing finger at the East while they prepare solely the West.

The first row of the game is to take the Spratleys.
So as I see it, they make actions, punctually, like they already did against Vietnam, but on a larger scale.
When it is done, go further ahead.
They need to secure the inner sea and the SLOCs.

-{SpoonmaN}-

They don't have to worry about their pilots, they have our pilots, and Singapore's pilots, and the UK's pilots as part of the 5 power defence agreement. One of our officers runs their Air Defence network, and until recently we ran butterwoth AFB, and will continue to station troops and equipment as needed for exercises and operations in the country. And so will the UK, and believe it or not Singapore would not be prepared to let the PRC over take Malaysia, not now, not ever.
And then you have the USA to consider.

Francois

Yes you are right.
Today Singapore is completly secured, and Malaysia is also so far.

But I have echoes from co-workers in KL that China is really pushing hard diplomatically on them the pull away from the West.

The reasons several western countries (US/UK/EU/AUST) are involving themselves more and more just makes me belive even more that the scenario is not that remote actually.

The past of China and its habits to take a country and then ask outsiders to shut-up because these are internal problems, makes me (and others for the matter) doubt of the "pacific" stance.

Officer of Engineers

Francois,

The only problem is that you can put the entire PLAN fleet into the area and it still would mean squat against the local navies, let alone the USN.

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Chimo

-{SpoonmaN}-

Indeed, we're all pretty decent in this neighbourhood, considering the financial problems that some of our countries have (especially Indonesia).
The PLA-N just doesn't have the capability to project enough power this far out to be avoid taking a beating from the combination of Australian, Thai, Malaysian, Singaporian, Philipino forces, and that doesn't take into account any American, European or British units stationed in the area, or whomever is around that might be prepared to help (Japan, Korea, maybe India)

Francois

Quite true remarks from you both, and thank you for that.

But again, I don't situate the action in this decenie or even the next.
I didn't put any time frame.
This is just a trend that appears when analysing the mil and political orientations of the PRC.

Officer of Engineers

The actions seems to be getting allies and not staging areas. Considering that no one is staying still while the PLAN builds, that's a prudent action.

troung

The Philippines has the 3rd worst fleet in SE-Asia, only better then Cambodia and Laos (depending on if one considered E-Timor as SE-Asia). 3 Peacock light corvettes and one WW-2 vintage Cannon class DE.

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To sit down with these men and deal with them as the representatives of an enlightened and civilized people is to deride ones own dignity and to invite the disaster of their treachery - General Matthew Ridgway

-{SpoonmaN}-

Its not just a naval issue, the Philipines does have an experienced if not overly well equipped army, with US help they could bring this into play to assist any neighbour invaded by the PLA. And I wasn't exactly being scientific, I was just trying to demonstrate that SE Asia is no cake-walk.