troung

NoKo refugees clogging the roads China wants to use to invade.

Plus a little pressure and what is left of the country might collapse leaving the CCP holding the broken vase and expected to pay for it. Noko is already slumped in the corner another blow and they might be out for the count with China having to deal with it. That is the CCP having to feed and cloth the population and provide all the services.

Putting up a pro-CCP strongman is a long term high risk investment that could not have returns and China would have to increase support to keep someone in place. Expectations might just rise as the guy would have to make statements to that effect to garner support and so forth.

And that is concluding that it is nearly a flawless victory which it logically could not turn out to be and Chinese troops could bleed a lot taking over. Or they don't bleed and the NoKo army goes home with their weapons making it hard for the vassal ruler China puts up.

Break it and you buy it. Cross border crap is not as bad as having to rebuild NoKo, well build it or getting bogged down.

===
A question if you don't mind; are wheeled apc issued units considered mech in China and truck mounted considered motorized?

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To sit down with these men and deal with them as the representatives of an enlightened and civilized people is to deride ones own dignity and to invite the disaster of their treachery - General Matthew Ridgway

Kansas Bear

Yet, considering the current situation; refugees attempting to flee a starving NK, KJI's stubborn defiance regarding his nuclear weapons program. What could be worse?

Stability, economic and mental.

gunnut

Oops, my apologies. I thought you and Tokyo Drifter are the same...

My post was meant for Tokyo Drifter.

Old age is catching up with me.

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"Only Nixon can go to China." -- Old Vulcan proverb.

gunnut

Ah, finally...you are an imperial Japanese militarist who is still bitter about losing the war, or one who pretends to be.

Whether you admit it or not, you've been trumped by your better.

Your government had committed war crimes.

Most of Asia hates you.

gunnut

Maybe China doesn't want to appear to be like the old Soviet Union setting up their satellite nations. That would alarm the US too much, which is more than what they want to deal with right now.

Officer of Engineers

About 10 or even 6 years ago, I would say that's true but now, it's a matter of historic titles. Those divisions that were called Motorized are still being called Motorized despite the fact that they've got armoured tracks. Newly formed combined arms units are being called mech no matter what they're riding in.

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Chimo

Officer of Engineers

The US actually gave a green light ... or rather did not raise a red flag to the Chinese when they considered the option.

gunnut

In that case, maybe the Chinese thought "hmmm...why wouldn't they object? What's in it for them? They don't just give up anything so easily. I smell a rat..."

-{SpoonmaN}-

OOE I've been wondering, what's your take on the level of technical superiority the PLA enjoys over the KPA? I would imagine the PLA would be at least a fair way ahead by now, certainly in their selected category A units, but overall how much of an advantage does your average Chinese unit have over their NK counterpart?
Obviously this would be something of a moot point when considering China's massive numerical and economic superiority but I guess I'm just curious as to how 'clean' the PRC could cut such an invasion.

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"I have this to say to the people of Australia: Kick me, I'm different."

Officer of Engineers

Whatever technical advantage the Chinese may have is neglected by terrain and terrain unfamiliarity.

-{SpoonmaN}-

Hmm good point.

YellowFever

Colonel, my knowledge of the PLA and the KPA can be loosely fitted on top of a pin so if you'll indulge me in a few questions:

1) How modernized is the PLA? Are their Army/AF/Navy as integrated as the US? Can they pull of joint branch operations seemlessly?

2) If the Chinese and the Norks fight, do you see something like OIF or more set battles such as we had in WWII, with massive front lines?

3) You say technical superiority the chinese enjoy over the KPA (if any) will be neglected by terrain and terrain unfamiliarity. Does that apply to the US as well? What I'm asking is does the US (which is probably even more technically advanced than the PLA) enjoy enough of a technical superiorty to overcome the terrain or it's unfamiliarity.

4) I agree that China or SK can topple KJI very easily (by withholding aid) but Japan and US combining to topple KJI is something I never thought about. Why do you suppose the US haven't taken this route?

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...If you're not living on the edge, you're taking up too much space!

zraver

If I may, not trying to intrude on OoE, but many people don't understand the dynamic in Korea. Kim is a stalinist style dictator which means he is paranoid and deservedly so. His two big fears are a coup and beign saddamized.

Before OiF as long kept the army and his security forces happy and working agaisnt each other, he was safe. OIF and what happened to Saddam terrifies Kim. it doesn't matter that he is imune form attack, unless he strikes first- he's paranoid. Bushes liunking him to the Axis of Evil and Saddam beign put of trial where he faces justice like a common crimminal is all the proof he needs that the US is out to get him (saddamize him).

NO, but no one can. The question is can they work togehter well enough to get the job done. I think they can.

Neither, OoE has said the 39th is in the area and the PLAN has the ability to move about 2 divisions in a single sortie with amphib capability and several air assualt units. If the PRC was going to go after Kim, I expext to see the PLA jump the border in force along with airborne airmobile troops seizng crucial points to facilitate rapid transit to Pongyang down the coastal roads while more airborne troops and the PLAN drops off troops near the capitol to establish a beachhead.

There is jack sh*t Army of DPRK can do to stop this except blackmail South Korea.

The North Korean army does not have alot of mobility or flexability and would be very vulnerable to PLAAF marauders if it tried to move in the open. It's one big advantage is artillery and it is almost all facing the wrong the way.

What is does have to use is 20 million hostages. If Kim pulled decides to pull a Hitler or Saddam he could imolate Seoul before the PLA could dig him out from what ever rock he is under. North korea has been building to survive a US air assualt for decades so assumadly has a multiple redundant hard wired communications system meaning Kim will always be in contact with units who choose to remain loyal.

I think if China/US/South Korea could figure out a way to safeguard Seoul China would deal with Kim.

Yes it applies to the US as well. US forces in South Korea are on a defensive posture in both orginisation and training. They lack enough signifigant airmobile, engineering, artillery, and armor assets to breach the DMZ. In fact the US Army as a whole might not have enough combat power to breach the DMZ without taking unnacpetable losses, at least not fast enough to save Seoul.

China does have the best chance of causing a friendly coup however. If ever the world needed Divine Providence to deliver a massive coronary Kim is the man who needs it.

YellowFever

Thanks for the answers.

US forces in SK are on a defensive posture and I agree 100% that they are in no shape to invade anything. But I'm having a hard time believing the whole US army (or whatever we can get into the theater of operation) will not have enough combat power to breach the DMZ... Or at least topple the closet movie director. I know a little less about military strategy as I do about the PLA and KPA but I don't forsee massive charges up the DMZ in the first few days but rather an extensive air campaign or maybe even carpet bombing of DPRK's front line. Only problem with my wonderful militarily genius strategy is that the people of SK might be living under a hail of artillary shells while we slowly whittel down KJI's army.

Officer of Engineers

To add to Zraver's insights,

The PLA's idea of a joint force is a schedule. Each branch got a specific area within a specific time limit and has to leave after that time limit is up regardless if they achieved their OPOBJs or not.

There is no such thing as CAS and if PLAAF planes flies beneath a certain height, they are fair game for Chinese AD gunners.

The PLA believes in Battles of Annhilation but not the full massive slug outs that you see in the movies. They like something like a division against a battalion. They are not an infantry army but an artillery army. They love their artillery and almost all their manouvers is to try to bring their artillery to bear.

However, this being said, the military is not the force of choice to collapse KJI. As indicated before, both Beijing and Seoul can get rid of KJI by doing absolutely nothing.

The NK nuke tests brought that straight home to KJI. There's a limit to which he can push the Chinese and the Chinese shown it to him. All my reading suggests that the Chinese has had enough of that clown and has started closing down the illegal activities and bringing the border to a full check.