vishv29

we have discussed the threads like usa vs pak or india. now lets discuss china vs taiwan which may result in china vs usa.

i dont think that china can occupy taiwan by force. following r the reasons:

1) chinese attack on thaiwan may involve usa in the war against china.

2) chinese forces r huge but inferior to US and taiwani forces.

now lets discuss the first reason. as u all know that america has promised taiwan to help against the chinese attack. there r so many people who dought that if really china attacks taiwan, will america help taiwan or not? off course for america also it will be a very difficult task,becoz fighting against world power like china is not like fighting against iraq,afganistan or serbia. but also US the presense in pacific is the proof of US-taiwan friendship. also usa is fully willing to help taiwan, otherwise it would not have stopped the phalcon awacs deal from isreal to china giving the reason that " IF THERE IS WAR BETWEEN CHINA AND USA ON TAIWAN ISSUE IN THE FUTURE, CHINESE FORCES WILL HAVE AN UPPER HAND IN THE WAR OVER THE AMERICAN FORCES WITH THE HELP OF THIS SYSTEM ". doesnt it mean that USA is not only willing to fight for taiwan but also its taking care for china not to be stronger than USA?

now about the second reason, it is obvious.

if we talk about the airforce then chinese airforce is inferior to USAF.( no explanation needed ). except some 200 flankers and other fighters (JF series) the entire and biggest part of chinese airforce is ageing,absolete. china has russian BARRIVE A-50 MAINSTAY awacs but useless if US comes with E3 sentry. which can electronically blind,isolate these russian awacs and make them helpless. taiwan is also reported to have E2 Hockeye (i m not sure and i may have spelled wrong).
also the US pilots r very high quality than the chinese pilots. with the high quality of pilots,high quality fighter interceptors, awacs US will have an edge and will enjoy air superiority which is the most important factor of the war. besides i think US and taiwan will be only defensive if china attacks. and in this defensive mode only they will make a huge dammage to attacking chinese airforce,navy with the help of their superior weapons. defensive mode of US and taiwan can also prevent china from using nukes. and china even wont think of using nukes coz it wants taiwan of 2004 not the taiwan of STONE AGE. also then usa has the nuclear arsenal far more huge and advanced then china.

chinese navy though huge but no match to USN. their biggest disadvantage is they dont have huge careers like US navy,though they have a good sam capacity. but it lives chinese fleet nacked to the us airstrikes. china has huge submarine arm with around 63 subs. even nuclear subs.(xia class). but chinese subs r the worst submarines as they r not capable to go for war far from the near coastal waters. upgradation programme can give them some relief. but anyway chinese subs r no match if compared to US subs. taiwan also has one the biggest and most powerful chopper fleet in its navy especially designed to hunt chinese ships and subs. so USN has an edge in naval air,subs, asw warfare,awacs on china. due to the lack of superior naval air,awacs,asw warfare the chinese ships and subs will be the easy hunting for USAF-USN and taiwan airfroce,navy in join operation. chinese navy is a brown water navy. it just cannot fight for long against blue water navy of USA. china will have a huge losses to its airforce and navy. and such a huge losses to airforce and navy will make it impossible for chinese ground forces to land on taiwan. assuming that even they manage to land on taiwan's northern costs US-taiwan airforces will give them a hell by making solid carpet bombing.for chinese forces there will be no aircover then. no, invasion (not to mention occupation) is impossible for china. after the war china will have lost most of its offensive and defensive capablities which may give an opportunity to other nations like japan,india to be a dominating powers in asia.
china must be knowing this, that is why till today she has hampered her desires for taiwan.

CONCLUSION: CHINA IS NOT CAPABLE TO OCCUPY TAIWAN. CHINA THOUGH A WORLD POWER IS NOT CAPABLE FOR SMART-SNAP OPERATIONS AND HAVE A QUICK CAPTURE OF TAIWAN. USA AND TAIWAN DOESENT NEED TO BE TOTALLY OFFENSIVE, AS DEFENSIVE MODE CAN GIVE THEM A SWIPPING VICTORY AND CAN KEEP NUKES OUT OF THE WAR. TAIWAN CAPTURE IS NOT POSSIBLE.

hiiii

1. There is a possiblity that the US may not fight, although the US will probably help Taiwan indirectly( aka. electronic warfare)

The US may not fight because the politicians in the US may be divided as to what to do. The President may ponder his options more. Bush invaded Iraq, and now the US Army faces, although limited, but almost daily deaths. The American public does not like dead US soldiers. If the US were to engage China directly, there is a possiblity that there might be a higher death rate amongst the US forces.

2. I agree that the Chinese forces are technologically inferior than their American counterparts, but I do not think that there is much technological difference between Taiwan and China's forces.

Air War:
J-10 vs Mirage 2000-5
Su family vs early versions of F-16, F-CK 1
MiGs vs F-5s

Naval War:

Kilos vs Taiwanese subs(unsure of type and number)
054 FFG vs LaFayette
052A,B,C , Sovremenny and older types vs Taiwanese destroyers(unsure of type and number)

Ground War:

Ground war would be the last thing to happen. If China can get 200,000 + troops onto the island, I think it's over for Taiwan.

I head from a Taiwanese friend that Taiwan's tanks are quite old. Is this true?

I think that the technology between Taiwan and China is quite even, maybe in some cases even leaning more towards China.

Officer of Engineers

You're forgetting the other TW ally - 100 miles of water. Any engagement with between the US and the PRC would be restricted to air and naval assets to which the Chinese are sorely lacking and US losses would be minimal. TW neither needs nor wants US ground forces.

You're adding in assets which has yet to be deployed on both sides and thus irrevelent.

You've never heard of the million man swim, did you?

They've just ordered a bunch of M1s. However, they've refitted their old M60s and would be more than a match for anything the PLA can land.

Not where it counts.

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vishv29

hiii,

in ur post it seems that u want to keep US out of action. i know that it would not be easy for US to go against china. but see, here US doesnt need to occupy china like iraq or afgan. what her role will be in the war that to defend,save taiwan from chinese invasion. as america is far superior against china it would be quite easy for her to have a minimum losses of its forces in comparison of china by being defensive. taiwan's economy is already 300+bn.$ and i dont think US would that easily let her this rich friend go into chinese pocket. american govt. will not have a support for this war only and only if it decided to land its troops on chinese soil or if they decides to be aggressive against china. but US govt. surely get the support if they decides to stick with defensive policy in case of taiwan.

yes, i agree with u that taiwan alone is not capable of fighting with china. but it is very unlikely that it will be fighting alone. i agree that if china lands 200,000+ troops on taiwan it will be over for taiwan.

but how they can land? to land a troops in such a huge numbers u need a great airsupiriority,amphibious capacity,naval dominance and unfortunately nothing is in china's favour if compare to USA. as i told earlier, even if they manage to land, what about sufficient aircover to protect them from US B-52's carpet bombing? what about keeping supply lines open for weapons,food? no, if US keeps her words then taiwan cannot be taken.

lexxwern

If the US doesn't interfere in any form, which country has the financial resources to last longer?

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ChrisF202

A tough one, China is an emerging economic powerhouse. Taiwan too. In a war I would say that the moment the 1st Chinese soldiers hit the beach, its over. If Taiwan can contain them in the straits, they win.

Praxus

China CAN'T land 200,000 troops on Taiwan without confiscating a crapload of civilian boats.

I assume that Taiwan can moniter all Chinese fleet actions in the straight, then one could assume that Taiwan could do a lot of damage to the PLAN invasion fleet before it even got there.

Anon

"1. There is a possiblity that the US may not fight, although the US will probably help Taiwan indirectly( aka. electronic warfare)"

Under US law the US gov't must support Taiwan militarily if China attacks.

hiiii

But to what degree? Full on, like with the carriers and etc? Or just help with jamming, detection etc?

I think that the US will take a bit longer deciding whether or not to send the carriers, but the electronic warfare would probably begin pretty soon.

hiiii

Yes, I agree that if the US helps full on, then Taiwan cannot be taken. But, I was just wondering if the US would risk any chance for future good relations with China over Taiwan. Like, Taiwan, although it is a democracy and has a strong economy, is still of lesser importance and influence in the world than China.

lexxwern

In larger interest US will support Taiwan. The won't let a military China grow. Too bad they'll have to out source their manufacturing elsewhere, there are dozzens of cheap labor countires anyway.

Anon

I can't remember what the law is called, something like "the taiwan independence act of 1997" or something to that extent.

In any case, it requires the US to respond with force to an attempted PRC invasion of ROC.

Officer of Engineers

Jay

Thanks Colonel.

This sums it up all!

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Anon

Thanx Colonel.