Akshay

I doubt it if China would do so.. any coup would be successful only if there is a suitable substitute available which I doubt anyone to be. Morover, the stakes are too high.

1)If coup fails Kim would take it as a hostile act & turn against China. This could put China in a quandary whether to get into loggerhead with NK & create another trouble alongside Taiwan or to side with US & launch an attack on NK which incase is still a losing game for China from both the ends. It is known that NK missiles can atleast hit the cities on Western China. Evenif, NK is rolled over by Allied forces it would bring US forces on Chinese border.

2) Now even if Chinese supported coup is successful, there is no guarantee that North Koreans would accept the puppet leader. This could throw NK into anarchy & the Chinese fears of NK refugees pouring into China could come true.

Sir, I've had conversation with many a South Koreans all of whom have said one thing to me. It is that 'North Koreans are their brothers'. They wish to help them get food, jobs & stability. Also, what I've witnessed is an equal degree of anger against US both by North Koreans & South Koreans. It was also told to me that if it wasn't for US, korean peninsula would've already been one. Now, I am not sure how much of this is adopted by the government in Seoul but, one thing that is clear is that if there is a war, it would be between US & NK. And I am not sure in the wave of countinuous hostilities in Afghanistan/Iraq, how many wars can US afford to fight at one time. Moreover, in case of NK... US would be directly exposing its troops against a possiblr nuclear attack(I say this since KJ Il is definately insane..).

Interesting times we are living in!!!! If we are lucky we would eyewitness the firsthand events unfolding the apocalypse.

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Shek

Some commentary from Cordesman from CSIS.

http://www.csis.org/media/csis/pubs/...commentary.pdf

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Officer of Engineers

We really do not have enough intel on the situation inside North Korea to state anything. The Chinese would have better contacts as who's in and who's out and they're not sharing that info. The only thing I can tell you that's a Chinese option.

You've said so yourself. The Chinese can create the conditions to collapse Kim extremely easily. Cut off the water and electricity. The probelm here again is that this action creates the very thing the Chinese wants to avoid. North Korean refugees in China.

So what? If it's a North Korean nuke, right now, no one is scared.

Not if the PLA invades 1st.

You're talking about a population conditioned to a personality cult, actually two personality cults. The 1st thing people are going to do when Kim is gone is to wake up and asked themselves, "what happenned?" Then, they will get pissed off about Chinese rule.

A Chinese occupation army does wonders, doesn't it.

Which generation are you talking to?

Sure, under North Korean Rule.

Not possible. The South Koreans are the ones manning the DMZ. The US 2ID are the reserved manouver force.

Not today.

I don't think so.

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Parihaka

Any possibility of a Chinese invasion with SK taking responsibility for NK control? (presumably with a negotiated US withdrawl)

Officer of Engineers

I am unaware of any such plans.

Zhang Fei

China doesn't provide aid for refugees or even internal migrants from one city to another. If they find work, they eat. If not? They don't. China has 1.3 billion people, 30% of whom don't speak Mandarin - the national language. North Korean refugees will blend in just fine with north eastern China's several million-strong Korean ethnic minority.

China can absorb the entire North Korean population (20 million) without breaking a sweat. Just one example - cities in the booming coastal areas of southern China have absorbed a hundred million migrants from other regions, many of whom do not even speak Mandarin, China's lingua franca - which means that they would be just like an Appalachian hillbilly stranded in Poland - or a North Korean stranded in China. Despite the huge numbers of out-of-area migrants, the wages in these cities are starting to creep up to the point that plant managers are looking at other countries. North Koreans - with ethnic Korean supervisors from China's northeastern provinces - could fill that gap quite easily. The Koreans would probably kill to get the wages and work conditions at which out-of-area Chinese migrants are turning up their noses.

China has tons of room - for it to get to Hong Kong's population density would mean a total population of 60 billion. It has half Britain's population density and could physically absorb several North Koreas.

So why is China repatriating North Korean refugees? If the entire North Korean population moves to China, Kim has no country. China is deporting those people to keep North Korea afloat. East Germany's Communist government collapsed because people were leaving in droves for West Germany via Hungary. If North Korea decamps for China, South Korea can unify the country without firing a shot. That's not what China wants.

Officer of Engineers

You've never seen a refugee camp.

Commando

Parihaka's idea seems very sensible. China invades. Once the North Korean government is topelled. Korea becomes unified with current South Korean government as the main government.

Although i can't see this happening. And am in favour of US air strikes on nuclear facilities and government compounds. A ground invasion could risk direct tensions with China and China would never want the USA near there border.

To me we have to resolve this quickly. If not its gonna lead to an arms race. And an unstable world!!!!!!

Commando

Its up to China to wake up and smell the coffee. If it doesn't act and goes by only imposing sanctions. Then i think the USA has every right to all their military options.

Once again America have to act as world police and ensure our freedom. Once again we will get those morons winging, about no-war.

Zhang Fei

That's because China hasn't set any up and doesn't consider North Korean migrants refugees. The Chinese view is that they are economic migrants.

Anon

Whatever it took, this day should've never been allowed to come to pass.

And the same for Iran, but TENFOLD.

Officer of Engineers

They're currently treated as much as the Americans treat illegal Mexicans. However, that is a big difference of 20 million people showing up with nothing demanding food, water, and shelter. Can you house 100 people out of the blue? What makes you think China can do the same to 20 million people?

Ironduke

I highly doubt South Korea would want to be responsible for NK.


http://www.globalsecurity.org/milita...oplan-5029.htm

Tronic

http://www.hindustantimes.com/news/5...2500000000.htm

hmm... so what is being done to the orginial proliferators which proliferated the Nuclear tech to the North Koreans in the first place??? lets see... F-16s, Harpoons, Orions...

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Zhang Fei

The same way that China's coastal cities took in 100m out of area migrants. One prototypical southern Chinese city has a native population that is 1/7 of its current population - the non-native 6/7 showed up within the last decade - and it isn't even an outlier. North Koreans can't possibly demand any more than China's internal migrants demand anything - these Koreans come from a background where they had nothing to eat, had to work long hours and were punished for falling behind (in some cases executed).

The typical assimilation process for Korean refugees - as for Chinese internal migrants - would go like this - they go to a place and sleep out in the open for a short time. After a while, they get hungry and start looking for work. The natives offer them piece work for next to nothing. They start working, eating and start looking at getting some lodging, of which there is an abundance, given China's overheated real estate market. In many cases, they won't even have to worry about that - Chinese employers will provide them with a bed in a communal dorm (arranged like an army barracks, with rows upon rows of bunk beds) and subsidized food, just as they provide these items for out-of-area migrants looking to make it in China's boomtowns.

In fact, given Chinese work arrangements, finding lodging for the family wouldn't even be a problem. The typical arrangement is for the breadwinner to live in a dorm, and for the rest of the family to live dozens or even hundreds of miles away, where the housing is cheap. In the rural areas forty or fifty miles from China's boomtowns, the rent on a one-bedroom apartment might be as low as 100 yuan a month. In rural areas that are not near boomtowns, it's likely even less. How does the family get together? It does so perhaps once or twice a month depending on how far away the breadwinner lives.

Now, I haven't even mentioned the elephant in the room. As I noted above, China could absorb the entire North Korean population without breaking a sweat. But the fact is that China could admit all 20m North Koreans and not have to assimilate them. For the reality is that every North Korean is automatically a South Korean citizen. China could simply repatriate them - to South Korea. But China will neither assimilate North Korean refugees nor accept them in preparation for their journey to South Korea. Because to do so would mean the end of the North Korean Communist state, just as the transit of East German refugees to West Germany via Hungary meant the end of the East German Communist state.