astralis

essay,

"high discipline" huh? apparently you don't know jack all about chinese history. the GPCR wasn't that long ago.

Edgeplay_cgo

I'm somewhat dubious that a sub kiloton blast in Korea would trigger a release under the Sea of Japan. If that's the case, it was ready to rip, anyway.

__________________
- Dennis
--
Victory at all costs, victory in spite of all terror, victory however long and hard the road may be; for without victory there is no survival.
-Sir Winston Churchill

Zhang Fei

I believe the underlying assumption of refugee "time on target" is unwarranted. Unless you assume some kind of Star Trek teleportation device to beam them simultaneously across the border. Even Star Trek involved the beaming of no more than a few dozen people at a time.

If the Chinese can't simultaneously move 20m refugees across a rapidly-developing country with trucks and tens of thousands of miles of paved roads, there is no reason to assume that 20m North Korean refugees can move on foot across rugged (and sometimes mined) terrain, past armed North Korean soldiers and police with shoot-to-kill orders in various districts, with only the food and water they can carry or pay for, and somehow show up simultaneously on Chinese soil.* In North Korea, the refugees would be like soldiers marching across the land, except they'd be doing so without trucks, shelter or logistical support through a sub-freezing Korean winter**. Even East Germans chugging across to West Germany in Trabants (and fistfuls of East German marks to buy food and gasoline along the way) via Hungary did not show up simultaneously on West German soil.

* Here's a clue - Napoleon's Grand Army, peopled as it was with fit, combat-age males, marched at the rapid pace of 15 miles a day. Note that this army was the 800-pound gorilla of the day, which meant it could take anything off the locals that it wanted - on pain of death (which was partially how it wore out its welcome rapidly). These refugees won't have that option, which means they will have to forage for food, water, shelter - all the basic necessities of life. They will have along with them young and old family members either too delicate or decrepit to move rapidly.

** Although marching through this weather is still preferable to dying of starvation in North Korea. If the soldiers don't have enough to eat (as appears to be the case, given reports of North Korean soldiers scrounging food off Chinese tourists) and it's merely early fall - what do you think is happening to the civilians?

Parihaka

Firstly, the whole idea is for China NOT to have the refugees on their soil, China's aim is to contain those refugees as close to NK soil as possible or even within NK.
Even so they are still refugees requiring everything done for them. You've already heard a Lt Colonel engineer say that "for a single battle group with a full engineering regt, I could handle about 10,000 people provided I have the proper location."
Think for instance how long it takes to move hundreds of thousands of army personnel to a theatre of operations (an organisation specialising in mass movement of personnel), and then multiply that by 100, without the specialised supporting infrastructure and organisation.

As for the time frame, when the refugees start to move, they move (and die) en masse. So there may be more or less preparation time depending on their ability to travel, but when they arrive, they arrive in their millions.

Ironduke

Actually that's a bit of a stretch. No copters got shot at, no women got raped. 6 people died in the Superdome, 4 of natural causes, 1 suicide, 1 stabbing. Looting consisted of taking necessities, mainly.

Officer of Engineers

Oh for crying out loud. SHUT UP AND LEARN, YOU IMBECILLE!

How many refugees are going to cross the border in one day? 100? 500? 1,000? 10,000? How many of them are fit able body men? How many old? How many women and children? How many families? How many criminals? How many are armed North Korean soldiers taking whatever they can get from whoever and whatever, including rape? How are you going to handle all that?

Are you going to seperate the men away from the children? Are you going to break up families because I will tell you that families are already broken up long before they got there. Kids would be lucky if a kind stranger would deliver them to a man in uniform. More than likely, they're left on their own to die or to march ... or worst to be eatened.

So, what are you going to do? Have buses and trains ready at the border to ship them to cities and then, let them go in the cities to beg on the streets where they don't even speak the language? That is the most stupid pile of horse pucky you ignorant idiot dumb ass clown don't think things through. Where are they going to get their water? From inside people's homes through their taps? How many homeless dirty filth stinking have YOU allowed into your home? Where guess where these people are going to go? Into the sewers.

So, let's say you process them to seperate the good from the bad? How many people can you interview in a day? Are you going to be heartless? Because you damned well better be. What about the people waiting in line? Where are they going to eat, sh!t, and sleep? In the line? What about the people who don't want to wait in line? There's a friggin town no more than 10 miles away, walking distance. Are you going to let them go? To invade homes when they get desperate for food, water, and shelter?

The best and ONLY solution are camps where you know where people are and how to control them and that also means including uniting kids with their families. It's alot easier to look for Mom Y for Kid Y when you know which tent they sleep in than it is to look for them in a cities sewers.

I asked YOU what would you do with 100 people overnight. You didn't answer. You just go away and take a stupid example fo Napolean's Army. Ok, you stupid jerk, how many died there and not from the Cossacks? More died freezing and starving than by bullet or sabre.

You know crap all. Don't even pretend for one second you know how to handle refugees. You don't. I've done it.

And lay off the military examples of which you clearly knows crap. The Nazis supplying a 10 million man force through two continents - HORSE PUCKEY!

__________________
Chimo

Zhang Fei

The only direct perspective you have on people is as wards of the state, whether as government employees or as refugees. Unlike government employees, refugees can actually earn their own keep. The Chinese government can choose from a pool of millions of Chinese Koreans to translate for the refugees and organize them into coherent groups for employment and housing. What I've left out is the fact that just as large numbers of South Koreans learn English, due to the American occupation of South Korea, large numbers of North Koreans learn Chinese (Mandarin, specifically), due to the efforts of the Chinese People's Volunteer Army during the Korean War.

If 40,000 arrive daily, a plan to disperse them would involve relays of buses between cities and towns and roundtrip journeys (for the buses only - the passengers would move to the next leg of the relay) lasting several hours. A standing-room only bus or truckload could probably fit 40 people on a vehicle. Assuming the commandeering of army vehicles and civilian trucks and buses, each city could probably muster up to 1000 buses and trucks, at minimum, without significant disruption to the local economies. And then there are the trains, which can embark, on a standing room basis, thousands of people per leg of the relay. Tens of thousands can, of course, be embarked on ships at Chinese ports to sail for the southern Chinese cities.

The idea that tens of thousands of people can't be transported, fed and sheltered daily across China is wrong. During long Chinese holidays (such as May Day, National Day or the Chinese New Year), hundreds of millions travel back to their hometowns or to vacation spots. All of these people have to be housed and fed. Tens of millions stay at hotels and dine at local restaurants. China might be a relatively poor country by Western standards, but it isn't North Korea, and it's certainly no sub-Saharan African country in terms of infrastructure.

China definitely has the both the physical and financial means to deal with the refugees. If it puts up a dollar figure, say 10 billion dollars a year ($500 per capita), for taking in North Korean refugees, could Japan, South Korea and the West say no to such a request? Uncle Sam is spending 100b dollars a year in Iraq. Note that if all 20m show up in China, Kim's government would collapse, which would mean they could all be repatriated - in short order - once South Korea takes over a unified Korea.

Zhang Fei

I did not respond directly because I thought it was too self-evident to answer.* A Chinese government official would simply contact a few local companies and tell them to house these people in their dorms for a single night - no cots, no nothing - they'd sleep on the floor and use the existing plumbing facilities. He would send a guy around to arrange for several catering operations to deliver extra food to the dorms for these people. If he were being generous, he could choose to compensate the companies for their trouble. Or not. To ensure security, he'd confine them to the dorm and have a few local cops spread around to deal with them. He'd also send for Korean translators if none of the refugees spoke Mandarin to get them organized and find shelter and work for them. Now, you might consider this rocket science, but civilians consider it second nature.

* The other reason is that you only have to respond to me. I'm dealing with a blanket party. I don't have time to think through and answer every single question - that's a full-time job in and of itself. And to be quite honest, your standard response is an argument from authority - it's kind of like Jimmy Carter telling someone off for criticizing him over his handling of the Iranian Revolution with the response that his critic has never been the president of the United States.

Zhang Fei

Is this your way of saying that the Nazis grew their own ammunition and their own crops where they were? If you're going to be condescending, please at least provide some reference points for the uninitiated - we can't be all as brilliant as you evidently are. I understand that some may feel that you are Genghis Khan and Lord Wellesley rolled into one. The rest of us - the great unwashed - would enjoy somewhat more explicit pearls of wisdom - even if granting them might be construed as casting pearls before swine.

Parihaka

I'm sorry but your numbers simply do not stack up. On the one hand your claiming the ability to handle 40,000 a day, on the other hand your claiming to be able to handle 20 million. So, at 40,000 a day, thats 400,000 in 10 days, 4million in 100, 20 million in 500 days. How about 40,000 in day three, 127 thousand in day 4, 800,000 in day 5, 1 million in day 6, by then of course, just on day 5 you need twenty thousand buses, plus fuel plus somewhere to take them, plus food, plus medical care, plus your roading infrastructure collapsing, ah but of course you know all this don't you, your just trolling
There I go getting sucked in again.

Officer of Engineers

It means do your god damned research before you spout such stupidity before those of us who did this kind of thing for a living. I ain't about to do your homework for you. You're the idiot who posted the garbage.

Commando

The Nazi's attempted to become self sufficient although this was not successful. Why did operation barbarossa stall? Because the Germans wanted to hold onto Kiev in the Ukraine and control food facilities and resources. Hence self sufficiency was failing, and it failed before that when they invaded Poland. What do you think they did with the Polish food? Officer Of Engineers i totally agree with you on this and your view towards the North Koreans immigration into China.

Also, if North Koreans immigrate into China. China will cease to exist. The North Korean soldiers are taught Kim Jong Ill is there father and divine. If there country gets attacked, with Chinese involvement. They will use terrorist methods in retaliation to China once they have entered the country. China can't defend itself against this.

astralis

wow, are you trying to tie essay for most ridiculous exaggeration on this thread?

SRB

I dont get it.
Why so much noise about NK?
We all knew that NK have A-bomb.So now they test it.It work.Is anyone expect it wil not work?

Rember Silvester Stalone movie when they build engine for car in prison and they must to start engine only to hear the sound,same thing is with A-bomb,they want to see is it working.That aspiration was stronger than common sense.


Look powerfull right?
P.S. it is Sedan explosion or :
Project Plowshare and the Unrealized Dream of Nuclear Earthmoving

Officer of Engineers

Ok, what the hell was Kim thinking?


DPRK Test: What About that Radionuclide Data?
posted by paul under north-korea

NHK and Yonhap have both reported on what Japan and South Korea have found in the atmosphere after the DPRK’s Monday test: bagel.

According to NHK:

Japan’s 47 prefectures say no radioactive substances have been detected at any measuring points in a survey conducted one day after North Korea’s claimed nuclear test.

The prefectures took samples of dust and rain from the air on Tuesday as part of an emergency government monitoring program.

They say the survey shows no trace of radioactive substances peculiar to a nuclear explosion, and that air radiation levels are normal.

Other government checks, including an air survey of radioactive substances from a Self-Defense Forces’ training plane, have also shown no unusual data.

Says Yonhap:

No signs of unusual radiation levels have been detected in South Korea after North Korea said it successfully detonated a nuclear device, the government said Thursday.

The Ministry of Science and Technology said none of the government’s 38 manned and unmanned monitoring centers had picked up any spikes in natural radiation from Monday noon to Thursday morning. The usual levels of radiation in South Korea are 10-20 Micro-Roentgen (mR).