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Old 10-10-2006, 22:37 PM   #151 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zhang Fei View Post
You are getting away from the point which is the question of whether China can deal with a swarm of refugees. I have argued that China could take in all 20m without breaking a sweat, not that all 20m would want to take the risk of crossing the border. And it wouldn't take all 20m to cross for the North Korean government to fall. Millions of East Germans crossed to the West via Hungary - and the East German government fell.

I think you might be missing the critical issue here however: East Germans
are Germans. North Koreans are Korean, and not Chinese. Not the same language, not the same customs, and a different history (FAR more different than East and West Germans). Analogous to, guess what, North and South Korea merging!

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It's silly to talk about culture, homeland, etc, when North Koreans have more basic concerns such as trying to avoid starving to death. All of the above are questions you deal with *after* you resolve the basic issue of survival. Without life, there is no culture, homeland, etc. As to congregating in camps - are you kidding me? They have no food and no freedom back in their home country, so they should expect free food, lodging and the freedom to do whatever they want in China?
Correct, food and survival are the most important considerations, but what do such temporary considerations have to do with the assimilation into mainstream Chinese society? These are two very different issues. Analogous to your cousin's house burning down. Of course you invite him into your home, you feed him, comfort him, help him get in touch with other family members, but in no way would you expect to provide him with permanent shelter, as he has no intention of remaining permanently either. Taking care of someone in their time of need does not constitute "permanent adoption".

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If China takes them in, it is going to be on Chinese terms, which would be better than North Korean terms, but certainly not as free and easy as Western terms.
Chinese "terms" have ALWAYS been "Koreans remain in North Korea".

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Originally Posted by Zhang Fei View Post
And if everything else fails, there's always the South Korean option, since every North Korean is automatically a South Korean citizen. This is a live option, but only if China will stop automatically repatriating North Korean refugees back to North Korea instead of handing them over to the ROK, which has accepted every refugee handed over by China.
How many countries in history have ever welcomed 20 million "aliens" all at once, and taken steps to ensure their assimilation into that respective society? Temporarily provide for? yes (along with the Red Cross, UN). China could handle the influx yes, but they'd be doing so with one goal and one alone: the repatriation of North Korean refugees back to Korea.

Sure, South Korea would help, and as a matter of fact, they would provide the greatest impetus for North Korean refugees to return to their homeland!
If South Korea exists, then it's a guarantee that Chinese policy toward North Korean refugees is not going to be: "lets assimilate" Koreans into society and spread them across the Chinese mainland to ensure adequate housing. No, China will "feed them", "clothe them", and with the help of international sponsors -- "house them temporarily", BUT send them back ASAP".

Last edited by Goatboy : 10-10-2006 at 22:42 PM.
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Old 10-11-2006, 01:06 AM   #152 (permalink)
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I fail to understand what makes most members here think that China has no control over NK.

This is a Chinese move all the way, and I don't believe their statements denouncing the NK test. Its all a show on their part.
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Old 10-11-2006, 01:15 AM   #153 (permalink)
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I fail to understand what makes most members here think that China has no control over NK.
Well, Captain, I'm one of those who thinks China has no control over Kim. You do know that the Kims have rewritten their history to erase all Chinese participation in the Korean War and the graves of Chinese troops in Korea are at best neglected, at worst killed.

The Kims have played Moscow against Beijing, and vice versa.

The games the Kims have played with Seoul, Tokyo, and Washington with Beijing in the mix. Those of us who watched China during the Cold War saw the same thing. Neither Moscow nor Beijing knew which side of the Sino-Soviet split the Kims would side with.
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Old 10-11-2006, 05:02 AM   #154 (permalink)
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zhang fei,

well, that's a nice way of saying you don't know the answers to my questions.
Actually, my response was a way of saying that I'll respond to your points when you respond to mine. Unlike you, I'm not going to assume that you don't have a response - merely that you think my arguments are beneath contempt and not worthy of a response. In other words, you're employing what I'll call the classic Chinese filibuster/stonewall.
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Old 10-11-2006, 07:31 AM   #155 (permalink)
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The Russian claims of a 5-15kt device can be thrown out the window. Their own data does not support that conclusion

http://www.ceme.gsras.ru/cgi-bin/inf...l?mode=1&id=84

They reported a 4.0 in the r-scale.
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Old 10-11-2006, 12:46 PM   #156 (permalink)
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Reminds me of the film Team America. Love Trey and Matt~:D
Well, you American guys should get into real quick action
and save the motherf***ing day!

Well, I don't like the idea of having the refugees flooding into China.
While in Australia I'd even be pissed off when some people try to speak Cantonese to me in restaurants. I'd tell them to speak either English or Mandarin. Too troublesome to have a big group there that will hardly ever integrate.

But we ordinary people here don't call the shots so...
whatever~(the way Sebastian in Little Britain pronounces it)
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Old 10-11-2006, 12:58 PM   #157 (permalink)
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Well, Captain, I'm one of those who thinks China has no control over Kim. You do know that the Kims have rewritten their history to erase all Chinese participation in the Korean War and the graves of Chinese troops in Korea are at best neglected, at worst killed.

The Kims have played Moscow against Beijing, and vice versa.

The games the Kims have played with Seoul, Tokyo, and Washington with Beijing in the mix. Those of us who watched China during the Cold War saw the same thing. Neither Moscow nor Beijing knew which side of the Sino-Soviet split the Kims would side with.
Well, NK hopes that everybody else thinks that China has a strong influence over them so that they would think twice before they do anything to NK.

Meanwhile probably some countries out there do hope China has a strong influence over the NK so that NK could still be dissuaded from walking down the wrong path.

The irony, however, is in reality China has very little influence there.
You guys are correct with the facts after the war in early 1950s.
There wasn't even a honeymoon during the war.
And the post-coitus kicks were surely big pains in the neck for Beijing afterwards.

Probably that's politics, where you don't always get what you see.
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Old 10-11-2006, 13:10 PM   #158 (permalink)
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The irony, however, is in reality China has very little influence there.
Oh I don't know. Cutting off the electricity and water would grab Kim's attention but that's a double edged sword and Kim knows it.
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Old 10-11-2006, 14:35 PM   #159 (permalink)
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This was expected.

When Pakistan blew up nukes in 1998, 2 days later there was a major earthquake on the Afghanistan-Tajikistan Border Region. 4000 people died.

Earlier that month, India tested nukes which set off earthquakes in Kashmir.

Nobody cared about Afghanistan at the time, so it went unnoticed, but I did predict this on another forum last week that given the seismic instability of Japan, a NK nuke test could trigger earthquakes, and if they caused major damage, could potentially start a war.

Luckily this quake appears harmless.

The relationship between nuclear tests underground in Nevada and earthquakes in California used to be a popular thesis topic for geological studies. Since the US stopped underground testing throughout the 90s, it hasn't been a popular topic, although I bet it pops up again on the radar after the earthquake in Japan.

very interesting...thanks!
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Old 10-11-2006, 14:42 PM   #160 (permalink)
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very interesting...thanks!
Now I do need that Weed real bad

Glad to see that OOE recoved fully from that nasty shock
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Old 10-11-2006, 17:26 PM   #161 (permalink)
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*** shaking my head ***

And the Klingons can use their replicators from the Birds of Prey to provide unlimited water and use their transporters to beam the crap away.
So Sir, as an engineer, you have one week to supply food, water, shelter and sanitation for already malnourished refugees starting from zero and growing to lets say just 10 million in that week.
Your Government has also tasked you with preventing those refugees from dispersing throughout your country.
How many divisions will you need?
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Old 10-11-2006, 19:05 PM   #162 (permalink)
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So Sir, as an engineer, you have one week to supply food, water, shelter and sanitation for already malnourished refugees starting from zero and growing to lets say just 10 million in that week.
Your Government has also tasked you with preventing those refugees from dispersing throughout your country.
How many divisions will you need?
And Sir, while you are at it, please ensure medical care for approximately 200,000 refugees (1% of refugees with serious injuries, old people, babies etc etc...or do you prefer to shoot them?), may be some out patient care for another 200,000-500,000 (ahhh forget it, let Darwin take care of them, survival of fittest), make sure that no epidemic breaks out (proper burial for 50,000-100,000). Then ensure transportation to South Korean Border (mmm lets see at 2000 refugees/Train its 10,000 trips).

Oh I almost forgot..keep our Army supplied and we have to win a war

Our Good Wishes and Prayers are with you.
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Old 10-11-2006, 21:22 PM   #163 (permalink)
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Way, Way, Way above my pay grade. However, for a single battle group with a full engineering regt, I could handle about 10,000 people provided I have the proper location.
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Old 10-11-2006, 21:40 PM   #164 (permalink)
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zhang fei,

Quote:
Actually, my response was a way of saying that I'll respond to your points when you respond to mine. Unlike you, I'm not going to assume that you don't have a response - merely that you think my arguments are beneath contempt and not worthy of a response. In other words, you're employing what I'll call the classic Chinese filibuster/stonewall.
alright, you asked for it. i used those questions as a WAY TO RESPOND TO YOURS. the answer to MY questions is effectively my answer to you. and as you don't seem to know the answer to those questions, i will answer them for you.

Quote:
now, you say you have taken some statistics, that is well and good. so, you should know- how many chinese live in the eastern third of the country? how many live along the coast? (this figure ranges, but nevertheless, it is still quite high.)

or, taking a closer look at where the expected disaster would take place, how many people are located in the three provinces there? assuming 50% of the NKs actually try running across the border- what is the percentage of that population?

and of course, you know, because that area used to figure quite heavily (and to some degree still does) on old light+heavy industries, it's not the richest place in china, nor is it the least-polluted.


94% of chinese
live in the eastern third of the country.
56% of chinese live in the 13 southeast/coastal provinces as well as two coastal municipalities (Shanghai, Tianjin).

in the three provinces that border NK- heilongjiang, jilin, liaoning- have around 100 million people. assuming HALF of north korea's 23 million people run across the china-NK border, that is around 12% of the population in the area!!!

considering that right now, in peacetime, around 300 million chinese do not have access to clean drinking water, yes, i would say that the north korean refugee problem will be a friggin' disaster. not just for north koreans but for chinese. considering how many problems the world's richest nation had with katrina, a disaster that required evacution of "only" 1.2 million people...
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Old 10-11-2006, 22:23 PM   #165 (permalink)
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Yup,America is the richest and most powerful nation of the world.That,s the only reason that why US government badly cope with katrina!After the disaster ,the whole city sunk into anarchy and became the hotbed of sin and crime which never could be expected in China.Chinese ppls have a high discipline,esp in hard time.China is such a country in where ppls always have to cope with lot of disasters include natural disaster and that made by warlords.In contrast,American ppls live in a better-off society,and they rarely experience what Chinese have to endure.And as a consequence of it,American do worse than Chinese during the time of disaster.
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zhang fei,



alright, you asked for it. i used those questions as a WAY TO RESPOND TO YOURS. the answer to MY questions is effectively my answer to you. and as you don't seem to know the answer to those questions, i will answer them for you.





94% of chinese
live in the eastern third of the country.
56% of chinese live in the 13 southeast/coastal provinces as well as two coastal municipalities (Shanghai, Tianjin).

in the three provinces that border NK- heilongjiang, jilin, liaoning- have around 100 million people. assuming HALF of north korea's 23 million people run across the china-NK border, that is around 12% of the population in the area!!!

considering that right now, in peacetime, around 300 million chinese do not have access to clean drinking water, yes, i would say that the north korean refugee problem will be a friggin' disaster. not just for north koreans but for chinese. considering how many problems the world's richest nation had with katrina, a disaster that required evacution of "only" 1.2 million people...
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